Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#51

Post by WhompingWindows » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:28 PM UTC

The US had the single largest increases in crude oil and LNG production in history in previous years. These other smaller producers are a drop in the bucket compared to the massive increases seen in the USA. These two stark facts may help explain why US politicians are reticent to back climate science or carbon taxation...why would they back something to curtail resource extraction that's making a KILLING in their red states? Especially when they get a tidy % of that killing in campaign donations and PAC-support.

If we think of climate denial and obstructionism through this lens, it makes the GOP a lot easier to comprehend.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#52

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:30 PM UTC

mr__y wrote: post #25

neuronic wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only solution would be to drastically reduce the value of oil and therefore make it uneconomic to dig it up. The easy-access oil is decreasing and extraction becomes more expensive.

There is an "easy" solution to this problem - introduce a new (preferably renewable) energy source that is an order of magnitude cheaper than oil.

It already exists in the form of Solar/Wind + batteries + EV.

Also, as price decrease for this combo, tax fossil fuels for all the damages caused to the environment (taxes to be used to help people switch to renewable energy, and for this transition only otherwise they won't support that tax).

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#53

Post by wallace_f » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:30 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #28

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Disagree. Just look at what happen the last time the cost of oil plunged - exploration slows to a crawl and some wells are just shut down as they can’t make money off the oil. It makes no sense to spend $10 to create a barrel of crude oil you can sell for $9.

Also what doesn't make sense is the world's plutocrats and even the top 1% being irrational enough to let the world economy, modern Western society, that they sit atop of collapse. I mean it could be the case, but what's more likely, and at least worth considering, is that its not. Though questioning authority and what you are taught to think appears difficult for every generation of people.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#54

Post by tomatotomato37 » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:33 PM UTC

thedevindevops wrote: post #17

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Well, it need not be burned, it can be converted to a series of products that don't involve burning it, plastics of many types, rubber, I'm sure even pharmaceuticals.

Oil products only take up ~10% of current production, and it will be even less once energy demand decreases and drives prices back up. That's low enough for a single country to monopolize & sustain the world's demand on its own oil production.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#55

Post by cartoonworld » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:33 PM UTC

Merrill wrote: post #44

simonh wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Falling oil prices were inevitable anyway. As renewable become more competitive and the shift towards electric vehicles continues demand for oil will fall back. Increased supply, or reduced demand, the effect on prices is the same. Of course the problem is that as prices fall, the range of economically viable uses increase, but I doubt this will be too much of an issue. Petrochemicals are already incredibly cheap com…

A plastic bag is about 5.5 grams. 10 bags of groceries would be 55 grams. A gallon (US) of gas is about 3350 grams. So if you drive 5 miles round trip in a car getting 20 miles/gallon for local driving, it uses 837 grams of gas. The oil in the bags is about 6% of the oil used on such a shopping trip. Of course that doesn't include the plastic packaging of food, soft drinks, bottled water, etc. which is probably more…

Your point is well taken but please keep in mind that the inputs for fuel oil and plastic aren't the same.

For example, plastic production requires ethylene which is a different product of the fuel cracking process. Notice the PE or HDPE in recycling brands, the E is Ethylene.

Drawing a 1:1 relationship between gasoline and plastic inputs is not accurate.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#56

Post by milesward » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:37 PM UTC

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Nope, not if solar/batteries get cheaper: it won't be worth digging up

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#57

Post by corodra » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:38 PM UTC

eloff wrote: post #48

corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

To be fair, I think the "peak oil scare" was good. That's when we all started to focus and take renewables seriously. I find it funny that OPEC never learned from its mistake from the 70s when there was the oil shortage and fuel efficiency became a thing. To be aware, fuel efficiency before then was never worth mentioning in a car sale. Yes, it never became too big because the shortage ended, but it at least got started.

Without the peak oil scare, we wouldn't be "this" far, I think. Humans need a burning fire under their ass to actually do something.

Promise you this though. Don't think big oil will be down and out. They're going to collect all the cold hard cash they can this next few years. Then, they're going to strangle the commodities needed for renewables. They'll start buying rare earth mining rights, processing plants, manufacturing companies and all. Making sure they make the biggest dollar from the beginning of the energy food chain to the consumer's doorstep. If they can't make money from oil, both God and I as their witness, they'll make their money from lithium and battery manufacturing. To think they're a bunch of mustache twirling dummies is the biggest folly people have.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#58

Post by spurgu » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:39 PM UTC

perfunctory wrote: post #29

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

> it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change I think it's worth pointing out that you and I are also humans. Whether they, humans, leave any oil in the ground or not partially depends on us. If we are worried about climate change, we humans can actually do something about it.

Are you and I in control of huge corporations?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#59

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:40 PM UTC

buboard wrote: post #4

Hmm .. maybe don't buy into that SaudiAramco IPO

Expect a lot of news articles to be published explaining that oil remains the future despite the urgent need to get rid of it

1) The world's biggest banks will do their best to find gullible buyers of SaudiAramco' fees (taking nice fees in the process)

2) the commercial media in every industry (financial or not) knows that a lot of money will be distributed to anyone who promote such stories (through ads, exclusive content, or else)

3) that's enough to have thousands of writers pumping articles depicting oil as a necessity / necessary evil, while owners of that oil are just trying to dump it as it becomes a thing of the past.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#60

Post by spurgu » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:40 PM UTC

spurgu wrote: post #58

perfunctory wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change I think it's worth pointing out that you and I are also humans. Whether they, humans, leave any oil in the ground or not partially depends on us. If we are worried about climate change, we humans can actually do something about it.

Are you and I in control of huge corporations?

In some countries you and I have the power to elect politicians who can decide on these things, but in most cases the corporations have more power than the politicians, at least in practice.