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Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#51
Paul Krugman and other mainstream trade experts are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization: It hurt American workers far more than they thought it would. Did America’s free market economists help put a protectionist demagogue in the White House?

Even if you didn't vote for Trump or don't like him, Trump has been critiquing globalization for years before he came to office especially with regards to China. Yet their conclusion is that he is a demagogue. The very people who cheered on the very globalization that made some of us rich but left many of our fellow citizens in the dust.

I assume they agree that the purpose of globalization was to make everyone better of not just some and that those that would benefit from it most should be paying back their fair share to the communities.

Today we have a situation where it's impossible to save your way to retirement, where the cost of living has increased and the middle class decreased and we did so while increasing the deficit of the country.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#52
What really made globalization work was containers and faxes. Before containerization, shipping was kind of an iffy business. Sometimes it showed up, sometimes it got lost or stolen, and sometimes it got broken. After containers, if you ordered a container load, it usually showed up intact.

The importance of faxes to trade is underestimated. Not only was it faster, faxes work well across language barriers. An invoice still looks like an invoice, a purchase order still looks like a purchase order, and a bill of lading still looks like a bill of lading. For the normal cases, the info in the blanks, the info that matters, matches up, and that's all you need most of the time. Especially since everybody uses the same number symbols. Business forms became an international language. You've almost certainly received some package that came with a bill of lading in a foreign language, recognized it as a bill of lading, and could probably make out the list of items. Even if the descriptions were unreadable, the part numbers matched.

Economists did not get that these rather banal mechanical improvements had a far bigger effect than their economic theory. This is embarrassing, since everybody in shipping, and then everyone in business, had figured out how to deal across borders thirty years ago.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#53
I doubt that there was ever any illusion that if financiers could arbitrage labor rates between nations that they would. Hence the expectation always was that living standards among nations would tend to equalize.

Post WW II the US had about 50% of the global GDP. The situation was huge inequality between nations. That was politically untenable and the solution was seen to be development of other nations' economies. Some of this was accomplished with things like the Marshall Plan and some with programs of foreign aid to underdeveloped countries.

However, the US taxpayer would never support a large enough foreign aid budget to really solve the problem. On the other hand, free trade could be sold politically, companies would export capital and know how to lesser developed countries, and the problem of inequality between nations could be ameliorated. Of course, it was at the expense of the US worker whose standard of living stagnated from the '70s onward. But the bet was that other nations would develop slowly enough, US consumers would enjoy cheap goods, business would make lots of money, and that US standard of living wouldn't actually decrease significantly for a politically potent group.

Of course, there aren't enough resources in the world for all 7.5 billion people to enjoy US standard of living. Therefore, the implication of greater equality of standards of living between nations is less equality of standards of living within nations. Less inequality internationally implies greater inequality intra-nationally.

And that is exactly what has happened. The world, including the US, will tend towards the situation in India where there is extreme wealth and extreme poverty side by side.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#54
post #35

To be clear this article isn't whether globalization is good or bad but about how it affects "American workers". Its pretty clear it has been on average very good for America and the world, but bad for say factory workers or coal miners. The response should have been to tax the wider benefits and subsidize the people who lost out, but that money got lost somewhere en-route... Most of the world is far better off in ne…

“that money got lost somewhere”

It’s a mystery.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#55
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read an article once, that claimed when a Scandinavian country joined the EU, they expected significant job distortion as a result of free trade. So they literally moved government agencies from their current locations, to locations that they expected would be hardest hit. The end result was the shifting of thousands of government jobs from one location to another. Highly trained people in the old government center…

Such a strategy failed utterly in Canada. They moved a government department from Ottawa to Miramichi, New Brunswick for similar reasons. All the skilled bureaucrats used their reputations to get transfers to a different department so they wouldn't have to uproot their family, and the department was rebuilt around a core of incompetents. I'm sure the locals they hired weren't so incompetent, but rot starts from the t…

I'm not sure about the long gun registry, but the core issues around the failure of the Phoenix pay system are much more complicated that the above suggests.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#56
post #5

The big question I’ve been struggling with in regards to the free trade debate is this: Is cheap labor a legitimate source of comparative advantage? I increasingly don’t think that it is. Yes, we get products more cheaply. But those products are made in countries with fewer labor restrictions, often in places that are not democratic, where workers cannot vote for changing laws. We’re effectively saying we want democr…

Let me play the devil’s advocate: you buying those products is measurably better for those disadvantaged blue collar workers, than you not buying it (on a 10 year horizon IIRC - There are some UN studies on this, on phone and can’t find them right now). So you are damned if you don’t enjoy them, damned if you do (but a bit less). Obviously, it is better if you could improve their situation to the point where their la…

I'm sympathetic to that idea, to some extent. Foreign workers would indeed be happy to get a marginal increase in their income, even if those wages and working conditions are well below developed-country standards.

But, then, aren't we just making a trade at that point? I will fire 100 local blue collar workers, and hire 100 foreign workers who will do their job for less. I hurt 100 people, help 100 people, and along the way pocket some extra cash for myself. I think most moral systems would have a problem with this. It is generally thought of as immoral to rend one person in order to help one other.

(Yes, things get complicated when you hurt N people to help more than N people, depending on the number of extra people helped and the kind of hurt. For example, sacrificing soldiers in order to save an entire country. Generally speaking though, most moral systems have a problem with hurting people against their will except in extraordinary situations involving very large numbers. Does this trade situation qualify as that? I'm skeptical that is does.)

There has to be a better way. Some way where we aren't harming local blue collar workers, but are still helping foreign nations develop, while giving those foreign nations on the path of strong worker protections and wages that we have here.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#57
post #29

The big question I’ve been struggling with in regards to the free trade debate is this: Is cheap labor a legitimate source of comparative advantage? I increasingly don’t think that it is. Yes, we get products more cheaply. But those products are made in countries with fewer labor restrictions, often in places that are not democratic, where workers cannot vote for changing laws. We’re effectively saying we want democr…

Is cheap labor a legitimate source of comparative advantage? That really is the big question. It worked out OK for the pre-China era of "Asian tigers". Japan, Korea, and Taiwan had a labor cost advantage and exported heavily to the US. Their standard of living went up, wages went up, and they lost the labor cost advantage. Then the next round - Bangladesh (world leader in T-shirt production), Vietnam, Thailand. Labor…

China is more than 4x

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#58
post #6

> But after the Cold War ended, the debate over trade (Krugman’s Nobel-winning specialty) became a proxy for a larger intellectual struggle over free markets versus government intervention. This is the crux of it. The notion that economics, as a field, was blindsided by the rapidity and extent of economic dislocation doesn't match the history. Such a narrative is a whitewashing of a particular clique of superstar eco…

> the truth is, on balance free trade is better for the world and for every nation in it; Well not quite. Free trade is better for every nation after they have achieved development and wealth. Pretty much all of whom got wealthy by pointedly ignoring free trade. There's a decent book from 10 or 15 years ago by Ha-Joon Chang called Bad Samaritans that explores globalisation, free trade and in particular the insistence…

There's a similar book, "How Asia Works".[1] This has a good survey of industrial policy in Asia, what worked and what didn't.

Summary:

Step 1: Mechanize agriculture, to free up people for an industrial labor force

Step 2: Support export-oriented industries.

Step 3: Transition to a developed country.

Trouble comes when you botch step 2.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0802121322/

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#59

The odd part about capitalist based policies on trade and skilled work force immigration is how much the left has supported them. The right has long held a "capitalist laissez-faire" approach to economic policy, and has been open about that. But what I cannot wrap my head around is the paradoxical message of the left. On the one hand they have long been known for supporting and using government intervention to protec…

1) The American left has always been suspicious of government and comfortable with the market economy. The range of policies that look acceptable to the social left skew much more to the right than the social left in other countries.

2) Beginning with Goldwater and culminating with Reagan, the American public internalized economic libertarian ideas.[1] (See, e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/1964/10/25/archives/the-case-against...) By the 1990s the Democratic Party had lost their multi-generational primacy, and the only politicians able to stem the loses were politicians like Bill Clinton (see also Tony Blaire in the U.K.), whose strategy was to co-opt libertarian economics.

[1] The reasons for this are complex. For example, Southern conservative politics becoming vociferous advocates for deregulation and free trade obviously has more than a little to do with Nixon's infamous "Southern strategy". Republicans promised southern states a larger share of industrial manufacturing by 1) shifting it from the North and 2) extracting concessions from foreign manufacturers to build domestic manufacturing plants as part of trade negotiations.

Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization

#60

The big question I’ve been struggling with in regards to the free trade debate is this: Is cheap labor a legitimate source of comparative advantage? I increasingly don’t think that it is. Yes, we get products more cheaply. But those products are made in countries with fewer labor restrictions, often in places that are not democratic, where workers cannot vote for changing laws. We’re effectively saying we want democr…

I agree it's an important question. But one thing often left out of the possible answers is to go forward with using cheap labor overseas while also providing a very strong safety net and job retraining options to those who lose their jobs as a result. If this was done, then those workers might be able to benefit from the cheaper prices of products too while still having money in their pocket. Instead they've just been abandoned.

Obviously this is oversimplifying things, but I'm just saying that on the one hand it's important for disruption to happen (Uber making it harder for taxis) for the sake of progress, but for the sake of justice and the social fabric we should protect those most affected by the disruption.

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