Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy • Hacker News Board

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#51

Post by bobloblaw45 » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:14 PM UTC

hogFeast wrote: post #23

The big issue with the product is that after the first transaction, no-one has any incentive to use your marketplace. There is a company in my country doing this. They are probably not worth zero tbf but they have a massive issue with people just cutting them out after the first transaction. And what is the problem with just building a brand? I employ a bunch of dog walkers, I do checks on them, I build a trusted bra…

People have told me their Uber/Lyft drivers offer to be their personal driver for the trip when they pick them up from airports. Not sure how common this is.

Back in the day I used to drive a shuttle and once in awhile I'd get pressured into taking a passenger that wasn't related to the business I was employed by. It's pretty harmless but still a big no-no since you're technically breaking some laws since there are certain loops you have to jump through to take on fares like that (got screamed at by towncar drivers when I arrived at the airport. I'm sure they were thrilled when Uber became a thing). Anyways the passengers paid 40 bucks for a 20 minute drive. That was the going rate they were used to paying back in 2008. There's a LOT of incentive to cut out the middle man.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#52

Post by loganfrederick » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:17 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #45

loganfrederick wrote: post #16

What I don't get about the Vision Fund is how so many of its investments lack (pun intended) vision. Other than the ARM, Nvidia, and a few billion in biotech (about $3 billion[1]) investments, so much of the fund has gone into pretty "obvious" traditional startups. If I had a $100 billion fund, I wouldn't be swinging for these singles and doubles (which Uber and WeWork were by the time Softbank got involved, although…

Except that this isn't what Vision fund is about. What you are describing is more like a pre-seed/seed fund of which there are thousands around including YC. Sure they don't have the capital but that is often not the blocker for most of these companies. Vision fund is focused on taking successful companies global. And using their capital to knock out competitors and their experience in managing execution risk. And th…

Yeah, I get that and my post was kind of an implicit difference between what they "are" versus what I think they "ought to be" (admittedly easier to be in my armchair investor seat than Softbank's).

But their returns from Uber, WeWork, and Wag kind of support my point, whereas ARM and Nvidia support yours/theirs.

My broader point is that most informed technologists would've said three years ago that the ARM and Nvidia investments made more long-term sense than Uber and WeWork, yet Uber and WeWork are a disproportionate amount of the portfolio.

So if the Vision Fund isn't even going to succeed at the "scale big companies globally" approach, I'm not sure they would've done much worse going with the approach I suggested (or doing more deals like ARM and Nvidia, maybe they could've taken a huge activist stake in IBM or other large existing tech cos).

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#53

Post by techslave » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:20 PM UTC

maerF0x0 wrote: post #29

These on demand - fulfilled by gig contracting platforms can _only_ provide value if there has been a big technological change that undermines expertise in a job. Uber works because of google maps knowing a faster route than even the 20 year veteran tax driver. There hasn't been a revolutionary technology in dog walking, just people who need cash but dont know pets. There hasnt been a revolutionary technology in groc…

uber has their own mapping. and no, it or google maps is decidedly not better than local knowledge.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#54

Post by techslave » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:21 PM UTC

stagger87 wrote: post #41

Edmond wrote: post #34

>Mike Walsh, a general partner at Structure Capital, which was an early investor in Wag, described the brothers to CNN Business as "so smart" that it's "almost difficult to communicate" with them.

Can also be read as smart with poor social skills.

i don’t think that’s an “also”. it is the intended reading.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#55

Post by Judgmentality » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:21 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #35

Judgmentality wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber (lost money on the IPO), Cruise (just delayed their launch, still have no product or revenue), they bought Boston Dynamics (super awesome technology but the business doesn't seem viable), Light (really awesome idea to change mobile photography, but seems an obvious failure at this point), Zume (a pizza chain buildings robots that's raised hundreds of millions of dollars...they do not have any production robots),…

Being pretty negative on those companies. 1) Uber strategically is looking pretty good. They are the market leader in most countries and their Uber Eats business is turning out to be quite lucrative. 2) Self driving cars is a long term project so of course Cruise isn't going to have anything released just yet. 3) Boston Dynamics just launched their latest robot and has already seen pretty good adoption amongst enterp…

You effectively summarized all my points towards "Uber is fine," "Boston Dynamics is fine," and "self-driving cars are fine."

Uber is hemorrhaging money and are still competing against Lyft. What is their path towards profitability other than raising prices and losing customers? How do they become anything other than a glorified taxi company? Even if you disagree with me, you can't deny that the stock is trending downwards right now and is expected to continue to fall until after the lockup period for employees is up - that's when I think we'll see a glimpse of what Uber is really worth.

Boston Dynamics has been passed around constantly because nobody wants to keep them once they realize they can't make money. Spot is a cool robot, but they don't release a price. How many people want to spend the better part of $100k (or a leasing option) on something with incredibly limited utility? The market is tiny since the military keeps rejecting their machines.

If you believe in self-driving being the future, fine. Then that's a logical bet. I adamantly believe self-driving is like nuclear fusion - it's decades and tens of billions of dollars away from being commercially viable, if ever.

> Being pretty negative on those companies.

That's because I know how easy it is to make demoware and how hard it is to make a real product.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#56

Post by zaroth » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:33 PM UTC

dang wrote: post #46

zaroth wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we make a small exception for when the comment perfectly elucidates what everyone is actually thinking while reading the article? I’m sorry, all due respect, but.... a dog walking company .

Well, let's apply the HN guidelines [1] and, more importantly their spirit, to this case. That spirit is to be reflective rather than reflexive [2], which means to interrupt the rapid reflex that springs up immediately ("what everyone is actually thinking"), inhibit the temptation to react, and give the slower, reflective part of the brain time to catch up. When I do that, the first thing that comes to me is that the…

Thank you for the extremely thoughtful reply. Of course, I agree completely.

Opportunity can often be so right under your nose that you scoff at people ridiculous enough to go and try to address that need.

I meant my comment more tongue-in-cheek as a bit of catharsis, for how hard we can tend to strive at an obscure problem while not addressing the low hanging fruit.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#57

Post by velox_io » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:35 PM UTC

Reading the title has affirmed to me that we are living in a bubble (and it doesn't look good). I just can't get it through my head how an investment of that size will EVER pay off. A major reason people buy dogs is because they want to get out and walk more. If they can't they outsource it to a teenager you or your friends know, there's no need for a middleman in most cases. (If it was baby-sitting I could understand more it as there is far less flexibility.)

WeWork's valuations have also seemed strange to me, when they don't have any assets of infrastructure to warrant such a high value. There's very little stopping others renting office space, in fact a friend of mine has done just that.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#58

Post by gowld » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:35 PM UTC

velox_io wrote: post #57

Reading the title has affirmed to me that we are living in a bubble (and it doesn't look good). I just can't get it through my head how an investment of that size will EVER pay off. A major reason people buy dogs is because they want to get out and walk more. If they can't they outsource it to a teenager you or your friends know, there's no need for a middleman in most cases. (If it was baby-sitting I could understan…

In our modern isolated and busy times, many of us don't have neighbors to call on for dogsitting. Dogsitting business is in demand.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#59

Post by ashelmire » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:41 PM UTC

maerF0x0 wrote: post #29

These on demand - fulfilled by gig contracting platforms can _only_ provide value if there has been a big technological change that undermines expertise in a job. Uber works because of google maps knowing a faster route than even the 20 year veteran tax driver. There hasn't been a revolutionary technology in dog walking, just people who need cash but dont know pets. There hasnt been a revolutionary technology in groc…

Uber works because of the rider-driver matching, not the routing. Everyone has google maps.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#60

Post by tempsy » Fri, Sep 27, 2019, 9:42 PM UTC

I think Softbank's main problem is that they fund opportunity without considering execution at all. It's very possible that a dog walking service could be a multibillion opportunity (millennials/gen Z choosing to have pets over kids in greater numbers and working FT), but was there really anything special about this specific team that would lead anyone to believe they could execute with a $300m injection? I don't think so.