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Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

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Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#51

Post by ziddoap »

harshreality wrote: post #48
ziddoap wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "I suppose we'd better open the borders and prisons just to prevent disease, right?" That's one way to take something that no one is arguing for and turn it up to 11. At least try to argue in good faith. Edit: Found a source for you regarding trust in healthcare, for what it's worth. > A 2015 Pew study [...] We as a country have less faith in the medical system than we once did — trust was at 80 percent in 1973, an…

I tried to find the actual poll to find out what questions were being asked, but link 1 says the 39% figure is from a 2016 study, while link 2 is a 2015 study and doesn't mention 39% anywhere relating to the medical system. "Less faith in the medical system" could mean just about anything, from people not believing they have the right coverage, to people being afraid that doctors in lab coats are doing voodoo rituals…

You are correct, my 2nd link doesn't seem to have that figure. That was my mistake in sourcing, I will remove it.

I wasn't trying to insinuate anything, honestly. I was just trying to provide a source that trust in healthcare is falling to the person who said "Goodness. Citations needed" to the person who said trust in healthcare is falling.

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#52

Post by [deleted] »

JshWright wrote: post #14
coldcode wrote: post #10

Wait until it gets into the US in a marginal part of society. Given we have no universal health care, it's likely to spread and evolve faster than we can stop it. The person in Dallas could have infected the homeless person in the same ambulance who subsequently wandered off. Imagine an illegal person catching it and fearing discovery tries to avoid a hospital, only to infect those they are sharing a tiny room with.

What is an illegal person...?

[deleted]

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#53

Post by ziddoap »

harshreality wrote: post #50
ziddoap wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what effect the fear of incarceration and deportation have in regards to lowering faith in medical institutions. I don't know if the folk who are against vaccination are the sole cause of eroding trust in healthcare, but given that healthcare trust is eroding and anti-vaccination believers are rising, it's not much of a stretch to think the two might be related. What I do know is that according to the st…

You and others (top-level comment spawning this subthread) seem to be implying (correctly, I think) that immigrants are afraid to engage with the medical establishment (or police... they're all lumped together under "authorities") because they're worried about getting caught up in the immigration enforcement dragnet. The obvious solution to distrust and lack of engagement between immigrant communities and the authori…

I have very specifically gone out of my way in this thread to not convey any opinion, implied or otherwise, regarding immigration or border policy. I only wanted to give a source for the fact that trust in healthcare is falling.

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#55

Post by harshreality »

ziddoap wrote: post #51
harshreality wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried to find the actual poll to find out what questions were being asked, but link 1 says the 39% figure is from a 2016 study, while link 2 is a 2015 study and doesn't mention 39% anywhere relating to the medical system. "Less faith in the medical system" could mean just about anything, from people not believing they have the right coverage, to people being afraid that doctors in lab coats are doing voodoo rituals…

You are correct, my 2nd link doesn't seem to have that figure. That was my mistake in sourcing, I will remove it. I wasn't trying to insinuate anything, honestly. I was just trying to provide a source that trust in healthcare is falling to the person who said "Goodness. Citations needed" to the person who said trust in healthcare is falling.

Al was responding to someone who was insinuating that distrust of medicine (doctors, generally) was the result of aggressive law enforcement. The strong implication was we should do something about the reluctance of people to seek medical care because of their immigration status or outstanding warrants. That means reducing enforcement of various laws. That's what Al was responding to.

The possible variations are:

1. Stop enforcing immigration laws and checking immigration status except in very narrow cases.

2. Stop trying to apprehend people with open warrants.

3. Decriminalize some stuff that's criminal so that fewer people have warrants.

Maybe I've got blinders on, but I think hardly anyone agrees with option 2 in general. And I think almost everyone, other than "Get off my lawn" suburbanites, agrees with option 3. Too much minor shit is illegal. But I also think those are minor compared to the first issue.

That leaves the issue of illegal immigrants and their reluctance to have any contact with authorities, including medical services, which is why Al went on tilt. Unless you either refuse to enforce immigration laws, or make them officially legal immigrants, both of which are equivalent to an open borders policy, they are going to remain fearful of seeking medical treatment and the problem remains.

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#56

Post by LgWoodenBadger »

cm2187 wrote: post #9
faitswulff wrote: post #6

Tangential, but if a virus's contagion is regulated by its virulence (that is, very deadly viruses are less contagious because they kill their hosts) does that mean widespread access to modern medicine could remove the upper bound on virulence by keeping the hosts alive? I could probably formulate this question better, but the basic question is, "could virus's symptoms be getting worse in general?"

Not an epidemiologist, but I understand it mostly has to do with the means by which the virus is transmitted. Ebola is very lethal but requires physical contact of bodily fluids for transmission, which contains a lot its spreading. You can probably sit on a plane next to a contaminated person and you will be fine. That contains a lot the contagion vs a virus like the flu.

Transmissibility depends on strain, based on the book Hot Zone. Ebola Zaire was transmitted only through fluids, while Ebola Reston was airborne.

Though maybe the differences are by-products of the poor models mentioned in another comment.

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#57

Post by ziddoap »

harshreality wrote: post #55
ziddoap wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct, my 2nd link doesn't seem to have that figure. That was my mistake in sourcing, I will remove it. I wasn't trying to insinuate anything, honestly. I was just trying to provide a source that trust in healthcare is falling to the person who said "Goodness. Citations needed" to the person who said trust in healthcare is falling.

Al was responding to someone who was insinuating that distrust of medicine (doctors, generally) was the result of aggressive law enforcement. The strong implication was we should do something about the reluctance of people to seek medical care because of their immigration status or outstanding warrants. That means reducing enforcement of various laws. That's what Al was responding to. The possible variations are: 1.…

>distrust of medicine (doctors, generally) was the result of aggressive law enforcement.

Perhaps I am reading it wrong, but the quote is:

>[...] people didn’t distrust medical authorities like they do now [...], and didn’t fear [...]coming into contact with government agencies [...].

Which says "AND didn't fear" not "because of fear".

I can't definitively say what the parent meant to post, but the way I read it (which could be wrong, too) is that they are saying there are two reasons we are not as equipped to deal with an outbreak like we did with polio/smallpox:

One reason is because of erosion of trust in healthcare. The other (separate) reason is because of the fear of police/immigration officials.

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#58

Post by ziddoap »

5040 wrote: post #38
phs318u wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because at that time people didn’t distrust medical authorities like they do now (anti-vaxxers among others), and didn’t fear (as much) the other consequences of coming into contact with government agencies (incarceration/deportation).

>Because at that time people didn’t distrust medical authorities like they do now (anti-vaxxers among others) I recommend taking a look at 'The State as an Immoral Factor' by Maria Louise Ramé--pseudonymously written in the late 1800's. Distrusting medical authorities is not a new phenomenon. Here's a small excerpt: A few years ago nobody thought it a matter of the slightest consequence to be bitten by a healthy dog;…

Maybe not new, but seemingly accelerating in magnitude.

>A 2015 Pew study [...] We as a country have less faith in the medical system than we once did — trust was at 80 percent in 1973, and in 2016 it is 39 percent."[1]

[1]https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-dont-trust-th...

Re: Is Ebola Evolving into a Deadlier Virus?

#59

Post by TheRealPomax »

Can someone post the one word tl;dr to help others decide whether this article is worth reading or not?

I'm getting tired of these clickbait questions: has ebola's virulence and efficacy increased, or not? Because if it has, that title should be "Ebola is evolving into a deadlier virus", and that's entirely worth clicking through for.

But if it hasn't, this is just clickbait and there are many, many more articles getting published on the web that also require time to read, without wasting time on this one.

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