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As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

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Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#51

This probably gonna get me killed but I've got to put it out there. I was so disappointed by the food and music scene in Nashville. Literally every restaurant was some trendy clone of some vaguely hipster cracker barrel (one exception). The music I could find (with one exception) was just sad cover bands doing the same Counting Crows covers over and over again. Redeeming restaurant: Princes hot chicken. Got that shit…

I'm guessing you were on the Broadway strip? Avoid Broadway/etc at all costs (that's always been the case). There aren't any actual music venues on Broadway. Those don't count.

First off, a caveat... I haven't lived in that area in about 15 years.

If you're downtown, and want a good music venue, The Station Inn is always a good choice. It's crazy to me that it's now a very swank, brand new neighborhood. Used to be a bunch of grimy old warehouses that had been converted into music venues. However, the Station Inn remains and is unchanged. Go there.

Similarly, the Exit/In is still the icon it's always been. If you're not into bluegrass (station inn) go to the Exit/In.

Those are just the famous places. There's plenty of good music if you just move away from Broadway. The area around Vanderbilt used to actually have a lot of neat little dives (The End was always fun, but I haven't been there in years). East Nashville has somehow become both expensive and pretentious (I can't describe how crazy that statement is to me...), but there are a lot of good bars to see local bands at there.

Prince's is really great, but try the random gas station hot chicken as well. Plenty of good places other than Prince's and Hattie B's. They won't be on Google Maps, though. Look for signs on storefronts. Expect cash only, to go only, leg quarters in styrofoam containers. Eat slowly.

A lot of the places I'd point you to for food are gone now... However, Nashville Biscuit House is still there and assuming it's still what it used to be, I'd highly recommended it.

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#52
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have an example of that? Perhaps I’m biased being in LA and SF but those city budgets seem irreplaceable broken. Infinite amounts to pensions while no one can propose viable fixes to problems.

Sorry, how is meeting pension obligations "irreplaceable broken"? They hired people for years with the promise of retirement pensions. It's a debt, not a budget item.

Cities & states frequently offer absurdly generous pensions to public sector workers for political payoff or corrupt reasons. State workers can sometimes retire in their 50s with a lifetime of absurd benefits. Or, the infamous '13th check' where some innumerate officials mail pensioners one extra check in a given year when the pension does especially well financially- literally robbing from the fund's future. Many state & city pensions are underfunded because they are simply too generous.

Public sector collective bargaining is fundamentally different from private sector. Benefits can't get too generous in the private sector because the bargaining is zero sum and the companies are rational- they can get absurdly generous in the public sector because the payers (politicians) are spending taxpayers' money and not their own. There's little incentive to think about the future

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#53
post #35

Perez's Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital makes the point that when a technological revolution occurs, gains are frequently concentrated in a small number of locales that are the first to adopt the new technology and adapt their local industries to the new structure of the economy. This results in significant economic (short term), military (medium term), and geopolitical (long term) power. The changing…

Fundamentally, fragmentation. I think the Civil War is a relevant example, honestly. What happens when the disparity between the Silicon Valley elite and the Iowa cattle farmers becomes too much for one side to bear? What's weird this time is the technocrats are pretty spread out on the coasts, and then you have cities like Denver right in the middle. It will be a bit more nuanced than "North vs. South" next time. Pe…

>I have a hard time imagining our apathetic population going to war with each other in our day and age

I don't think our population is that apathetic, and I don't think a return to 60s & 70s levels of political violence is really that farfetched. It's what was normal just one generation ago! Small scale groups could conduct random bombings, lone wolf types can carry out assassinations, etc.- this was my parents' generation in a nutshell.

The US has political radicalism (including but not limited to religious fanatics), a violent population relative to other developed countries, obviously lots of weapons (over 300 million firearms!), a very high level of military training/combat experience/institutional military knowledge from 80+ years of wars, loosely organized 'militia' groups, tons and tons of rural areas to hide in, a sympathetic population in those rural areas, etc. We literally check every single box that countries with insurgencies check. I expect a return to small-scale political violence in my lifetime (with gun control, not immigrants, as the flashpoint). Look at a group like Oath Keepers as a great example of who's potentially the most dangerous.

Honestly, my biggest fear are not insurgents but far right-leaning police & military personnel. That's how countries move from insurgencies into coups

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any particular analysis of this you're familiar with?

No, just anecdote from my own lifetime and observations. I would just say the 2nd paragraph of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_costs is essentially the same thing I'm talking about.

Thanks. The cited Lincoln Institute of Land Policy study also addresses this directly: "Pension Legacy Costs and Local government Finances"

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/pension... (PDF)

The similarity (referenced by the Wikipedia article) to technical debt was what I'd been thinking. More generally, markets and social-political systems have trouble recognising long-term risks and liabilities generally.

Both are forms of debt.

See also Adam Smith's growing vs. declining nations discussion in Wealth of Nations.

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#55
post #52
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, how is meeting pension obligations "irreplaceable broken"? They hired people for years with the promise of retirement pensions. It's a debt, not a budget item.

Cities & states frequently offer absurdly generous pensions to public sector workers for political payoff or corrupt reasons. State workers can sometimes retire in their 50s with a lifetime of absurd benefits. Or, the infamous '13th check' where some innumerate officials mail pensioners one extra check in a given year when the pension does especially well financially- literally robbing from the fund's future. Many st…

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Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#56

Perez's Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital makes the point that when a technological revolution occurs, gains are frequently concentrated in a small number of locales that are the first to adopt the new technology and adapt their local industries to the new structure of the economy. This results in significant economic (short term), military (medium term), and geopolitical (long term) power. The changing…

I have had similar thoughts. There is a lot to say about the information age, but I have mostly changed my perspective. I don't think it is a technological revolution, or more correctly because of the technological revolution, these things are happening. We probably overestimate how fast things change, and overlay what is an economic revolution onto recent technological development.

Shenzhen is sort of a good example since isn't actually that high tech. There is for sure innovation but it is mostly existing, and sometime even old, technology. It is both culturally and matter of fact disconnected from the West. Much more so than other centers in the region. It is economic factors that make manufacturing there possible more so than technological ones. You might even argue that USSR were more cutting edge, but of course US companies manufacturing there would have been mostly unthinkable.

The power outside of centers mostly weren't taken away by technology, but by trade, mergers and mortgages. Of course technology has a role, but I am not so sure much of it couldn't have happened by fax. I really think the movie wallstreet is more of an answer to what is happening than the social network is.

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#57
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have an example of that? Perhaps I’m biased being in LA and SF but those city budgets seem irreplaceable broken. Infinite amounts to pensions while no one can propose viable fixes to problems.

Sorry, how is meeting pension obligations "irreplaceable broken"? They hired people for years with the promise of retirement pensions. It's a debt, not a budget item.

As with many companies, municipalities and states incurred liabilities for contractual promises whilt not fully funding them, kicking the can down the road.

What typically happens is that either national government baols out the fund, retirees get squeezed, or both. The true beneficiaries are past taxpayers who benefitted from government service delivery based on promised pension benefits to employees, but who skipped on paying the bill at the time.

Oddly, you hear far less about private sector failures in this regard. In part because defined-benefit plans are largely extinct, but the abysmal failure of individualised defined-contribution (401k / IRA) programmes is just the same problem undrr a different flag. But private sector has been dodging this far more than public.

There's more to this, yes. Some of it is government corruption and graft. Mancur Olsen's "The Logic of Collective Action', describing both pensioners' and taxpayers' (mostly a small group of highly-motivated wealthy) very self-interested lobbying to maximise commitments whilst skirting payments is far more instructive.

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#58
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Culture counts. This is probably gonna get me killed, but I would have qualms with starting or moving a business to a city where reproductive rights are under continual attack. The situation is inhumane.

Part of the problem with places like Alabama getting left in the dust is opinions voiced by elected officials in Alabama. There's literally nothing that would motivate me to move to a place like that despite extremely low cost of living.

Spend some time in Birmingham sometime. It's a fun city. As a whole, AL isn't what you probably think it is.

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#59
This ties nicely with another HN post just a few days ago [1] where a person heavily involved in civil engineering talks about why he moved away from the free market view of city growth.

You have a bunch of struggling cities without any funding for basic services, that spend massive amounts in attempt to attract businesses without a way to recoup losses. Which causes a sort of nasty cycle where people move towards cities which have more resources.

Since the word 'taxes' is essentially a forbidden word, the only option is for these cities to receive federal assistance. Or else get left behind even further.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20460509

Re: As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

#60

Don't forget cities that have influxes of young population so have increasing tax receipts but much lower legacy costs (retirees, infrastructure maintenance, stable growth rate education costs per capita). Most of those cities will mismanage the growth and 20-40 years from now you'll be reading about Nashville and how it was gutted when the software jobs dried up. These come in cycles and cities that have some sort o…

A lot of those geographic reasons to exist will probably cease to exist in the next 50 years, as global warming opens up new shipping lines, makes previously verdant areas uninhabitable, makes uninhabitable deserts verdant, changes ocean currents, remakes national borders, and prompts large & powerful cities to divert rivers away from weaker and wetter ones. Containerization already led to large shifts in the fortune…

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