You can't push a country to a corner and expect them to do nothing. There are always consequences. Sometimes smart and sometimes stupid.
China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
51–60 of 82 posts
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
What the current US government want to achieve is not clear neither. You can't expect China to say nothing and just abide to whatever. There's no long term view, China has quite a few things they can use to pressure the US and it will be stupid for them not to use those. It's a self-harming game and the first one to bend will lose it. The longer US tarifs stays, the more some US companies that depends on those import…
Wait, did the US not state what it wants to achieve? It wants China to give the same market access as it enjoys in other countries in the world, including regulating and treating foreig companies as its own companies are treated. Also, IP theft. It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.
This being the same USA that caps foreign ownership of airlines to 25%, for example. And which country was built on unlicensed use of European IP...
No country or bloc has a truly free market. Even the EU has rules preferring and protecting indigenous companies. Criticising China alone is just hypocrisy.
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#53Looking into history, Stable China normally translates to stable East Asia, and developing China also brings development to East Asia.
I don't think we are heading in the right direction but let's assume politicians know what they are doing. (Which often turns to be a wrong assumption and almost always they are safe from the consequences)
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#54China should be careful here, if this does not work then they are pretty much done for, although the CCP can claim mental victory as usual as they've been propagating it as the silver bullet.
While the US is a major market, but it's not the only-one. Isolation policies do not work in a globalised economy, China isn't trying to isolate itself, the US is.
If the US pulls this sort of erratic crap with one of its major trade partners, others will go look for alternatives too. Yes this will hurt China, but I think you underestimate how hard this would hit the US. This is the next economic crisis in the making, and at least some people in the US government seem to realise this, since the best solution for boosting the economy is going to war. Hello Iran?
This is not China that is at fault, it's the US that's being a little cry-baby.
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
One country benefiting more from trade than another isn't the same thing as the other country being worse off because of the trade. They're just not as much better off as they could have been. The goal of these disputes should be to reach a more equitable trading arrangement, not to stop or restrict trade that is 'harming' countries[1]. The Idea that the US is 'losing' due to the trade deficit and that reducing trade…
>The Idea that the US is 'losing' due to the trade deficit and that reducing trade with China will benefit America is utter tosh and even the administration's own trade advisers and negotiators are saying so (a bit more politely). The problem isn't so much the deficit as it is the way the US has been seduced into relying upon the Chinese industrial machine. The US industrial base has been depleting for decades. This…
>This will result in massive inflation.
I hope there was a reliable way to simulate the outcomes.
1) Inflation is one plausible outcome.
2) The trade deficit exists due to US (and most of the western world's) appetite for consumption I guess. Let's say if the price of a gadget (or any other product/consumable) I "may need" goes up beyond a certain point then I am not buying OR I am curtailing consumption. How long will that take to result in deflation ?
3) The for-profit companies may decide (but I guess not) to accept reduction in profits ? But then the securities markets will see the downward trend.
Unless there are smart people who can simulate and say which outcome is most likely... it seems inflation it is.
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
What the current US government want to achieve is not clear neither. You can't expect China to say nothing and just abide to whatever. There's no long term view, China has quite a few things they can use to pressure the US and it will be stupid for them not to use those. It's a self-harming game and the first one to bend will lose it. The longer US tarifs stays, the more some US companies that depends on those import…
Wait, did the US not state what it wants to achieve? It wants China to give the same market access as it enjoys in other countries in the world, including regulating and treating foreig companies as its own companies are treated. Also, IP theft. It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.
> It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say.
As living standards in China rise, cost of manufacture in China was bound to rise. The Chinese have been preparing for this for quite some time. They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to join the project.
> I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.
I would assume plenty. China can slowly start dumping US treasuries and stop buying more. China can sanction US companies like Apple operating in China. China can start bilateral trade agreements with other countries and use it's financial clout to demand de-dollarization and move international trade to a more neutral currency like the IMF SDR. China can buy more oil from Iran. China can invade Taiwan. China can refuse to honor sanctions against North Korea etc
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#57China should be careful here, if this does not work then they are pretty much done for, although the CCP can claim mental victory as usual as they've been propagating it as the silver bullet.
While the US is a major market, but it's not the only-one. Isolation policies do not work in a globalised economy, China isn't trying to isolate itself, the US is. If the US pulls this sort of erratic crap with one of its major trade partners, others will go look for alternatives too. Yes this will hurt China, but I think you underestimate how hard this would hit the US. This is the next economic crisis in the making…
So exactly how is China going to ban export to the US specifically? The US isn't even it's big client.
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wait, did the US not state what it wants to achieve? It wants China to give the same market access as it enjoys in other countries in the world, including regulating and treating foreig companies as its own companies are treated. Also, IP theft. It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.
This being the same USA that caps foreign ownership of airlines to 25%, for example. And which country was built on unlicensed use of European IP... No country or bloc has a truly free market. Even the EU has rules preferring and protecting indigenous companies. Criticising China alone is just hypocrisy.
It's not hypocrisy, it's playing by the same rules: China bans US tech companies, US bans a China equipment company.
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wait, did the US not state what it wants to achieve? It wants China to give the same market access as it enjoys in other countries in the world, including regulating and treating foreig companies as its own companies are treated. Also, IP theft. It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.
This being the same USA that caps foreign ownership of airlines to 25%, for example. And which country was built on unlicensed use of European IP... No country or bloc has a truly free market. Even the EU has rules preferring and protecting indigenous companies. Criticising China alone is just hypocrisy.
China is by far the worst offender. Their laws resemble a developing economy while they are significantly industrialized. Make no mistake that the majority of the US including the Democratic congress support Trump on the goals -- if not 100% on the methods.
Quite stupidly the US picked a trade battle with Canada and the UK/EU before going after China. Trump's administration had the termidity to call Canada a security threat while the air defence of the US mainland's second in command is a Canadian General.
Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wait, did the US not state what it wants to achieve? It wants China to give the same market access as it enjoys in other countries in the world, including regulating and treating foreig companies as its own companies are treated. Also, IP theft. It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.
> It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. As living standards in China rise, cost of manufacture in China was bound to rise. The Chinese have been preparing for this for quite some time. They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to jo…
[deleted]