Live data from Hacker News

Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

thesoundingline.com

51–57 of 57 posts

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#51
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US Government spends more money than it takes in taxes. In order to finance the difference it takes out loans (in many ways just like you might take out a loan to buy something). These loans take the form of government bonds. Various people/organizations buy these bonds and give the US government money. Later on these bonds "mature" and those people get their money back plus some interest. This post is saying tha…

One buyer, in particular, most likely will stop buying and that is China.

when you have sovereign-nation-levels of wealth, there aren't many other sane places to park your money.

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#52

"If you have the right people, like, in the agencies and the various people that do the balancing ... you can cut the numbers by two pennies and three pennies and balance a budget quickly and have a stronger and better country." -Trump "I’m pledging to cut the deficit by half by the end of my first term in office." -Obama "We must balance the federal budget. We can do so without raising taxes. What we need to do is i…

curious why you're being downvoted. If your message is "many presidents for the last few decades have tried and failed to balance the budget", I think you're correct.

Looking at the bigger picture, it seems like the two-party system is incentivized to NOT solve this problem. If you're a member of Tweedle-Dee in congress, and the president is a registered Tweedle-Dum, you can't help her solve the budget issue because then she'll have that jewel in her crown to win re-election.

This being a tech forum, I offer a tech solution (maybe this already exists, who knows): we need some kind of impartial data structure about every piece of legislation in congress. Some example attributes would be {tax: up/dn/na, introduced by: Rep/Dem/3p, services: add/sub/na, lobbyst dollars: $(mln), ... } but there would be many more.

The idea being that the meta data could be easily broken down to show the manipulation and dirty deeds the lawmakers do pass and block these bills. The most glaring one is when they piggyback unrelated changes into the same bill (I forget the term for this, but it's dirty). So that Senator WhatsHisName can't be blamed for voting against the ThinkOfTheChildren Act. He could point to the metadata and say "this bill would increase taxes by $1b, double our nuclear arsenal, and only give $9m to the children through one school lunch company in one district in the nation". The metadata would clearly show that some idiot put a school-lunch bill in with a nuclear weapons bill. Then the media (likely bloggers, because the major networks seldom talk about the composition of bills) can name and shame the idiot who bundled those together and make them answer for it. Just the threat of bringing these things to light should be enough to discourage it.

Another goal of the metadata, would be to shame lawmakers who vote against something for partisan-only reasons even though it clearly benefits the people. So if the president tries to balanace the budget, has congress draft even a minor change in that direction, the metadata would need to expose anyone who got in the way. Find some way to corner them and make them say "no, we don't need a balanced budget" OR, "balanced budget would be great, but I can't vote for something that Tweedle-Dum is behind". Just bring this dirty behavior to light in the most objective way possible: with unbiased metadata.

I know this data already exist in the bills themselves, but the American public don't read these bills, they need a very concise (and impartial) summary that they can cite and that they trust to not be biased. Some sort of standardization.

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#53
post #37

This discussion is so twisted with incorrect and downright offensive to proper reasoning rhetoric. Please look up modern monetary theory. Stephanie Kelton explained modern governmental finance very well in a pod cast on Tuesday last week with Chris Hayes. Basically, if the government runs a deficit then there is a surplus somewhere in the economy that otherwise wouldn’t be. The recent trillion dollar tax cuts and lac…

You seem to be assuming that MMT is The Correct Theory. That's... well, at a minimum, it's not an assumption that you should expect your readers to automatically recognize as correct as soon as you state it. In fact, it might take more than one podcast to convince people. For that matter, even Paul Krugman (a great friend of government spending freely) thinks MMT is very wrong.

I made a claim and supplied a reference for defense of the claim. Their claim is much closer to the true operations of government finance than the prevailing perceptions. They discuss Paul Krugman’s and Larry Summers’ criticisms in the podcast.

multiple political cycles have been dominated by demonstrably false claims and those claims have been used to refute proper understanding and progress. It’s important to refute and push back against such dismissive rhetoric.

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#54
post #2

Am I wrong in thinking that this doesn't bode well for the value of the dollar over time, and will likely cause hyperinflation?

When inflation is "merely" bad, a dollar loses half its value in a few years.

In hyperinflation, a dollar loses half its value in a few minutes.

The former is certainly possible we decide we want to maintain low taxes and big spending after investors stop buying bonds (hard to say when that happens).

The latter would mean people have lost faith in the government's ability to carry out even its most basic functions.

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#55
post #54
post #2

Am I wrong in thinking that this doesn't bode well for the value of the dollar over time, and will likely cause hyperinflation?

When inflation is "merely" bad, a dollar loses half its value in a few years. In hyperinflation, a dollar loses half its value in a few minutes. The former is certainly possible we decide we want to maintain low taxes and big spending after investors stop buying bonds (hard to say when that happens). The latter would mean people have lost faith in the government's ability to carry out even its most basic functions.

"government's ability to carry out even its most basic functions."

by looking at the current political circus it certainly seems that way.

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#56
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be assuming that MMT is The Correct Theory. That's... well, at a minimum, it's not an assumption that you should expect your readers to automatically recognize as correct as soon as you state it. In fact, it might take more than one podcast to convince people. For that matter, even Paul Krugman (a great friend of government spending freely) thinks MMT is very wrong.

I made a claim and supplied a reference for defense of the claim. Their claim is much closer to the true operations of government finance than the prevailing perceptions. They discuss Paul Krugman’s and Larry Summers’ criticisms in the podcast. multiple political cycles have been dominated by demonstrably false claims and those claims have been used to refute proper understanding and progress. It’s important to refut…

> Their claim is much closer to the true operations of government finance than the prevailing perceptions.

Um... yeah, I want to see a bit more than a podcast as evidence of that assertion.

> multiple political cycles have been dominated by demonstrably false claims and those claims have been used to refute proper understanding and progress. It’s important to refute and push back against such dismissive rhetoric.

It takes a lot more than you have supplied to push back. That's not "dismissive". That's reality.

And, "demonstrably false claims"? Absolutely, there have been a bunch, from a bunch of different sides. All the more reason we should want a bit more evidence than a podcast from last week before we believe MMT.

Re: Over $9T of Federal Debt Will Mature in the Next Four Years

#57
post #44
post #37

This discussion is so twisted with incorrect and downright offensive to proper reasoning rhetoric. Please look up modern monetary theory. Stephanie Kelton explained modern governmental finance very well in a pod cast on Tuesday last week with Chris Hayes. Basically, if the government runs a deficit then there is a surplus somewhere in the economy that otherwise wouldn’t be. The recent trillion dollar tax cuts and lac…

Link to the podcast in reference, very excellent episode: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/debunking-deficit-hyst...

Thank you for the reference and transcript!
Post reply on HN