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Notes on AI Bias

ben-evans.com

51–60 of 126 posts

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#51
>The most obvious and immediately concerning place that this issue can be manifested is in human diversity.

I swear, when someone starts building autonomous killer robots, the first set of concerned articles will probably be asking whether robots were properly trained to target all genders and races with equal accuracy. This is not a sensible way to approach AI ethics.

>It was recently reported that Amazon had tried building a machine learning system to screen resumés for recruitment. Since Amazon’s current employee base skews male, the examples of ‘successful hires’ also, mechanistically, skewed male and so, therefore, did this system’s selection of resumés.

There is nothing "mechanistic" about this. It depends on how you select sample resumes and how you split them between "good" and "bad" labels.

I worked on a similar thing as an "encouraged" side-project at a certain company. Except I realized from day 1 that using AI on resumes is a bad idea and aimed to show this with data. My model was aiming to detect people who will quit or get fired within first 6 month (with the intent of lowering them in priority for interviews, supposedly). It miraculously achieved 85% accuracy... by figuring out how to detect summer interns.

Framing this problem as "bias" and especially hyper-focusing everyone's attention on diversity aspect of it is extremely irresponsible. (I'm not saying that's what the author is doing, but that's definitely what's being done at large.) Fundamentally, there are significant higher-level problems with using statistical ML models for things like hiring or crime prediction.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#52
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you assume here that the historical effects that led to Siemens sensors correlating with failure will continue to be true in the future. And I think that is the key fallacy that makes AI bias a problem. We aren't just looking for patterns. We are looking for patterns so that we can take action and affect the future. If the patterns, which are real enough in the historical data, don't correctly predict the imp…

> I think you assume here that the historical effects that led to Siemens sensors correlating with failure will continue to be true in the future. Yes, AI systems presume induction to be true. But so does... uh, science and most other things we do?

Science has trained experts thinking about the data.

If you set a team of scientists to find a way of predicting failure of turbines, they might notice a correlation between Siemens sensors and failure. They would then look for and attempt to prove theories to explain this descrepency. In doing so, they would likly discover that, not only can they not find a causative theory, but the correlation goes away when they control for age.

AI systems stop after the first step, yet somehow are perceived as better than expert humans.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#53
post #3
post #2

> Since Amazon’s current employee base skews male, the examples of ‘successful hires’ also, mechanistically, skewed male and so, therefore, did this system’s selection of resumés. Amazon spotted this and the system was never put into production. Couldn't they have retrained the system with a 50/50 mix of males / females resumes ? Or restrict the use of the algorithm to sort male resumes ? Or maybe resumes don't actua…

Sounds like an extraordinarily poor AI system if it depends on absolute numbers, and not per capita. And wouldn't the number of unsuccessful hires also skew male?

The basic "resumes skewed male so the algorithm did too" explanation appears to be incorrect. But it's found in the original Reuters story and most derived stories, and finding it here implies it's reached the level of urban legend.

Going by the details of the Reuters story and several others, it appears that what actually happened was a training/task mismatch. Amazon wanted an algorithm to do resume discovery, which recruiters would run and get quality predictions as they viewed resumes. But they trained it on resume results, giving it past resumes which had been submitted to Amazon and telling it to seek similar resumes. None of the stories make it clear if there even was negative training data; it looks like the tool was simply told to compute degree-of-similarity to past inputs, and possibly told to prioritize resumes which were ultimately hired.

As a result, the tool was trying to convert a relatively gender-neutral pool (resumes found online) to a skewed one (Amazon applicant resumes), and did so by weighting gendered terms. It also seems to have underweighted technical terms, failing to appreciate them as mandatory or strictly position-specific.

The developers were sufficiently aware of that to catch and correct the known gender biases (e.g. devaluing women's colleges or the literal word "women's"), but were scared there were other uncaught biases. And the results were apparently terrible all around, so the tool was scrapped. Which is pretty much what you'd expect from something trained on exclusively positive, sample-biased examples. The story has been seriously distorted, but the real plan also seems terrible...

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#54
This quote stands out to me:

"just as a dog is much better at finding drugs than people, but you wouldn’t convict someone on a dog’s evidence. And dogs are much more intelligent than any machine learning."

Because in my head I followed it with the sentence "but we're all confident that we will have dogs driving our cars in about 5 years." Food for thought for sure.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#55
post #2

> Since Amazon’s current employee base skews male, the examples of ‘successful hires’ also, mechanistically, skewed male and so, therefore, did this system’s selection of resumés. Amazon spotted this and the system was never put into production. Couldn't they have retrained the system with a 50/50 mix of males / females resumes ? Or restrict the use of the algorithm to sort male resumes ? Or maybe resumes don't actua…

This story has been constantly misrepresented, because Reuters absolutely botched their initial report. Amazon was never building a tool to decide which interviewed candidates to hire, they were building a tool for discovering candidates. It was biased, but that gender bias wasn't the proximate reason for scrapping the tool.

As far as I can tell from later stories (e.g. 1, 2), what Amazon actually did was build a tool to show recruiters 'quality' predictions for all resumes, for instance as they scrolled LinkedIn. But they trained it on resumes submitted to Amazon for various positions, possibly also adding weight to resumes which produced hires.

In which case the problem is painfully obvious; the system effectively had no negative training data, and its positive examples (submitted resumes) didn't actually match the desired output (qualified resumes). It was computing degree of similarity between a gender-neutral-ish pool (resumes posted online) and a gender-skewed pool (resumes submitted to Amazon), and tried to make that conversion with whatever data was available - like devaluing resumes that mentioned women's colleges. (This wasn't just a proxy-variable thing, the model essentially learned to weight on gender.) Amazon's team apparently caught this issue and did the usual things like blinding on those words. But they were scared of uncaught factors; reading between the lines, they were unable to "detrain" biases like neural nets do because their dataset and task didn't match.

Ultimately, the tool was apparently scrapped because it made selections "almost at random". Which, again, isn't exactly surprising in light of the absolutely bonkers choice of training examples.

[1] https://www.aclu.org/blog/womens-rights/womens-rights-workpl...

[2] https://www.ml.cmu.edu/news/news-archive/2018/october/amazon...

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#56
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One situation I could see leading to this result (Amazon cancelling their resume filtering software with the excuse that it 'skewed male') is that 1. The AI system accurately predicted employee success across both genders AND 2. The AI system predicted that women would do worse than men That's politically embarrassing and something that you can't necessarily 'fix' by improving the system. (see: all the 'will this per…

This is feels like an elephant in the room when it comes to AI bias. We develop an AI that accurately predicts outcomes and discover it is biased, then instead of asking if maybe this means our current system is deeply biased and needs to be changed, we say, "don't use the AI; keep using the people who might or might not be biased but we don't know because we can't measure it in the way an AI can be measured." If it…

The problem is that AI and more generally 'algorithms' are or were presented as neutral and unbiased. As such their biased results prop up a biased system.

I don't think people are against using ML and for biased human systems. Just pointing out the ignorant, naive and lazy deference to computers that often occurs in human systems that share the same bias.

In short I'd think most people who are against biased AI are also against biased human systems for very similar reasons.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#57
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is feels like an elephant in the room when it comes to AI bias. We develop an AI that accurately predicts outcomes and discover it is biased, then instead of asking if maybe this means our current system is deeply biased and needs to be changed, we say, "don't use the AI; keep using the people who might or might not be biased but we don't know because we can't measure it in the way an AI can be measured." If it…

The problem is that AI and more generally 'algorithms' are or were presented as neutral and unbiased. As such their biased results prop up a biased system. I don't think people are against using ML and for biased human systems. Just pointing out the ignorant, naive and lazy deference to computers that often occurs in human systems that share the same bias. In short I'd think most people who are against biased AI are…

Of course, sometimes reality is also biased, and the AI systems are just accurately reflecting reality. And that's an even bigger elephant.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#58
post #51

>The most obvious and immediately concerning place that this issue can be manifested is in human diversity. I swear, when someone starts building autonomous killer robots, the first set of concerned articles will probably be asking whether robots were properly trained to target all genders and races with equal accuracy. This is not a sensible way to approach AI ethics. >It was recently reported that Amazon had tried…

That intern story is excellent; I'm adding it to my bank of "weird AI tricks" like pausing Tetris to avoid losing.

More topically, you're quite right to object to that Amazon reference. As far as I can tell, the real story is even worse than mislabeling. Amazon devs wanted a system to spot candidates in resume banks, so they trained it to recognize resumes similar to the ones submitted to Amazon in the past. The entire dataset was 'positive', and output degrees of similarity instead of classifications. Amazon applicants are mostly male while the pool was presumably 50/50, so that was learned as an element of "Amazon-candidate-ness".

That's also an interesting story, but from the first publication (in Reuters) it's been framed as an uneven base rate 'inevitably/predictably/mechanistically' producing a biased result. Which is not only untrue but downright backwards, since it implies that the rate in the general data is what matters, rather than the relative rate between samples and positive classifications. It's yet another variant of the mammogram base rates question, and I wish people would stop trying to reinforce the incorrect answer to that.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#59
post #14

> Until about 2013, If you wanted to make a software system that could, say, recognise a cat in a photo, you would write logical steps. You’d make something that looked for edges in an image, and an eye detector, and a texture analyser for fur, and try to count legs, and so on, and you’d bolt them all together... I'm doing a lot of such algorithms (well, not for images). Does someone know if such algorithms have a na…

A while ago, Google photos autogenerated a video for me from my photo library. It was about a minute long, stitched together dozens of photos, called "dog video", and with a horrifying yapping dog soundtrack. Every single photo was of a cat. I have to say I was humbled by the amount of human and computing power that had gone into developing this system over the years, that could achieve such a complicated, impressive…

> be 100% wrong

This really is quite impressive. It's rare for humans to do worse than random guessing on tasks, and they almost never do much worse. There's something almost charming about the ability of AI to put real effort into actively avoiding correct answers.

Re: Notes on AI Bias

#60
post #51

>The most obvious and immediately concerning place that this issue can be manifested is in human diversity. I swear, when someone starts building autonomous killer robots, the first set of concerned articles will probably be asking whether robots were properly trained to target all genders and races with equal accuracy. This is not a sensible way to approach AI ethics. >It was recently reported that Amazon had tried…

If you train an AI using data from a system that already has certain biases, then the AI is going to replicate those same systemic biases in it's own predictions. It follows the "garbage in, garbage out" idiom.

Curiously though, did you compare the non-hire (full time) rates of interns vs fire rates of non-interns?

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