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Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

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Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#51

Post by nabla9 »

acdha wrote: post #42
nabla9 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's probably how the end comes. So much damage that it's not worth rebuilding even cheaper and temporary. But as I said, until that happens people will live, property values will decrease and stuff that is rebuild will be build cheaper. What will most likely happen first is "climate centrification" within Miami. Poor people in high elevations will be move out when land value increases. Low elevation areas become n…

That’s a big change from your earlier “What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now”. People need to plan now for those big disruptions because they’re either going to live long enough to be directly affected, because any buyer will be taking that into account, or both. Miami won’t go to zero overnight but everyone should assume that the next 50 years will be quite differ…

That's not a change from my earlier.

People who rent or live in cheap property just move and other people come in. Property values change gentrification happens but that's usual for a big city.

If you move to Miami now and have children, you can raise them in next 20 years and move elsewhere in next 30 years.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#52

Post by bluntfang »

ianai wrote: post #43
mcculley wrote: post #31

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I’m similarly perplexed at RE. For one, I make a good living and yet I can’t find decent, affordable homes near me. They’re all dated and much too expensive/soft. Dated in that they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area - and rampant lead paint/asbestos. Apartment buildings are similarly dated. Last I looked, in a big city apartment complexes were rare if they had one or two char…

>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area

I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#53

Post by acdha »

nabla9 wrote: post #51
acdha wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a big change from your earlier “What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now”. People need to plan now for those big disruptions because they’re either going to live long enough to be directly affected, because any buyer will be taking that into account, or both. Miami won’t go to zero overnight but everyone should assume that the next 50 years will be quite differ…

That's not a change from my earlier. People who rent or live in cheap property just move and other people come in. Property values change gentrification happens but that's usual for a big city. If you move to Miami now and have children, you can raise them in next 20 years and move elsewhere in next 30 years.

… as long as you don’t mind losing money on a house, living somewhere the landlord invests nothing in, dealing with accelerated infrastructure collapse and paying higher taxes for reduced public services as all of the mitigation costs tank budgets everywhere. A city with a declining tax base is not business as usual.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#54

Post by mannykannot »

jfk13 wrote: post #47
EliRivers wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

That may be politically more difficult when a substantial portion of the population insists that lower taxes and less government/regulation are an absolute good, to be pursued in all circumstances.

The vast majority making that argument only do so over issues where they think it is in their own interest. Where spending or legislation is in their interest, it's just common sense.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#55

Post by chii »

mcculley wrote: post #44
yostrovs wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not expensive to install electric chargers in existing building. "Planning" for Uber involves what? Having a drive in in front of the building? How do you plan for non-existent self driving cars? Any practical advice you can share with the architects here?

It is certainly more expensive to install electric chargers into an existing inert concrete structure than it is to design them in from the beginning. The building I am in is working this out right now, as are many others. Planning for Uber and autonomous cars includes architecting porticos and pickup/dropoff points in favor of garages. Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience.

> Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience.

if there's already a taxi rank, then uber should be using that space to pick-up/drop-off. If there isn't, then the current building is _already_ unfriendly to taxis.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#56

Post by EliRivers »

jfk13 wrote: post #47
EliRivers wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

That may be politically more difficult when a substantial portion of the population insists that lower taxes and less government/regulation are an absolute good, to be pursued in all circumstances.

Yet none of them move to Somalia or other such bastions of low tax, low government and low regulation :)

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#57

Post by rayiner »

EliRivers wrote: post #26
barry-cotter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know Florida is basically all limestone, which is porous, so dams don’t work. The water will seep through the bedrock so you can’t do the same thing in the Netherlands in Miami.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

Politicians can’t do anything about physics and geology conspiring to wipe your city of the map. Only scientists and engineers can. (And if they don’t have a solution for you, it’s like having cancer circa 1650. You’re SOL.)

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#59

Post by michaelcampbell »

chii wrote: post #55
mcculley wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is certainly more expensive to install electric chargers into an existing inert concrete structure than it is to design them in from the beginning. The building I am in is working this out right now, as are many others. Planning for Uber and autonomous cars includes architecting porticos and pickup/dropoff points in favor of garages. Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience.

> Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience. if there's already a taxi rank, then uber should be using that space to pick-up/drop-off. If there isn't, then the current building is _already_ unfriendly to taxis.

Except taxi ranks are a queue of fungible vehicles; uber/lyft's are "bespoke" so the exact same structure won't work quite as well.

But it wouldn't be hard to make a pickup/dropoff area. I suspect there already is one at most places, it's just a pissy, petty policy that doesn't allow ridesharing (etc) to use it.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#60

Post by xnyan »

kibwen wrote: post #27
cs702 wrote: post #24

As often seems to be the case in many parts of the US, the city of Miami is unlikely to muster the political will to do anything about this existential threat until after the city's businesses and residents have suffered serious, irreversible consequences. Think permanent loss. Few things can create as much political will as an irreversible crisis. By then, of course, it will likely be too late for prevention, so the…

Honest question: has anyone, engineer or otherwise, yet come to the rescue of New Orleans in the fourteen years since Katrina? The flooding there, and our response to it, is so far our best benchmark of what we can expect as sea levels keep rising.

I can't see any way out of this besides massive population shifts over the next 50-100 years.
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