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NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

nasa.gov

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Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#51

Post by Kliment »

phreeza wrote: post #17

Perhaps a good moment to re-read this: Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing: http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf tl;dr: "Because it means life is not incredibly unlikely (after all, it occurred on two planets in our own solar system); ergo what must instead be incredibly unlikely is the ability for life to progress to the point where it can spread across the galaxy (after all, no…

That's a bullshit argument. If we find life very close to us, it's very likely there is a common origin, and this gives us no information on the Great Filter.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#52

Post by retube »

phreeza wrote: post #17

Perhaps a good moment to re-read this: Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing: http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf tl;dr: "Because it means life is not incredibly unlikely (after all, it occurred on two planets in our own solar system); ergo what must instead be incredibly unlikely is the ability for life to progress to the point where it can spread across the galaxy (after all, no…

2 planets? what would be number 2? Martian life has never been confirmed if this is what is being referred to.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#53

Post by othello »

btilly wrote: post #33
mixmax wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or a good moment to remember what happens when a less advanced civilization meets a more advanced one. It never goes well for the less advanced civilization.

Someone should go back in time and tell the Goths that before they make contact with the Romans. Also the Mongolians should have been told to leave China alone. :-)

The comparison does not really hold: you would be hard pressed to find a single first point of contact between Goths and the Roman Empire or Mongolians and China.

In both cases, fighting had been going on for centuries before the empires were finally toppled. Thus even if overall less advanced, the "barbarians" had comparable warfare technology.

In most known cases where a true first encounter event occured - such as Columbus arrival in Hispaniola, Pizarro in Peru or Cook in Australia - the less advanced civilization was indeed overrun if not exterminated by the more advanced one.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#54

Post by darwinGod »

Vivtek wrote: post #10
amichail wrote: post #8

Would the discovery of microbial extraterrestrial life have any significant impact on your life?

Yes.

wow, I didnt get how 33 people blindly agree and upvote a one-word answer, offering no perspective at all , to a very valid question on how a successful outcome to SETI would influence an average guy's life!! Surely, this is not a open-and-shut question. Let me dampen some spirits who are gleefully waiting to see breaking news of extra-terrestrial life. Think about the budget and investment into this grand objective.Think whether the money invested has/would have a respectable ROI-would it have been better spent on less-glamorous, but more useful ventures like funding projects with more "tangible benefits, and issues", like OLPC. Think of world hunger,lack of access to drinking water. Not glamorous-but plenty of scope to advance technology to change the world we live in. And then think of romanticizing on "Are we alone" , la Jodie Foster,Contact or NASA news conferences.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#55

Post by ugh »

nhebb wrote: post #23

I keep seeing stories pop up here that NASA has some upcoming announcement, but I never remember to follow up on the announcement day to find out what the hubbub was about. I'm starting to get annoyed that a government agency thinks it needs to save "the big reveal" for a press conference. Why not just make the announcement?

That’s the contrarianism you are going to pick? A bunch of scientists having a for the general public probably harmless but for the scientists in the field no doubt somewhat exciting announcement?

You are not the target audience. This is a press release. Before the existence of the web you would have never heard about the announcement unless you are a science journalist. (The vast majority of people will never hear about this announcement. Reading HN or other places where this announcement might conceivably pop up is clearly not normal.) You really shouldn’t be annoyed about something that is not even directed at you.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#56

Post by sgibat »

phreeza wrote: post #17

Perhaps a good moment to re-read this: Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing: http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf tl;dr: "Because it means life is not incredibly unlikely (after all, it occurred on two planets in our own solar system); ergo what must instead be incredibly unlikely is the ability for life to progress to the point where it can spread across the galaxy (after all, no…

Maybe no one has contacted us because we haven't been broadcasting our existence for long enough.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#57

Post by wlievens »

othello wrote: post #53
btilly wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone should go back in time and tell the Goths that before they make contact with the Romans. Also the Mongolians should have been told to leave China alone. :-)

The comparison does not really hold: you would be hard pressed to find a single first point of contact between Goths and the Roman Empire or Mongolians and China. In both cases, fighting had been going on for centuries before the empires were finally toppled. Thus even if overall less advanced, the "barbarians" had comparable warfare technology. In most known cases where a true first encounter event occured - such as…

So basically you're saying that if you make your sample size small enough, you can prove your point? :-)

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#58

Post by khafra »

darwinGod wrote: post #54
Vivtek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes.

wow, I didnt get how 33 people blindly agree and upvote a one-word answer, offering no perspective at all , to a very valid question on how a successful outcome to SETI would influence an average guy's life!! Surely, this is not a open-and-shut question. Let me dampen some spirits who are gleefully waiting to see breaking news of extra-terrestrial life. Think about the budget and investment into this grand objective.…

My guess at the reason for the upvotes is that amichael's question was not at all novel, and most people have already decided which way they stand on it; so they upvoted to express agreement.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#59

Post by khafra »

Kliment wrote: post #51
phreeza wrote: post #17

Perhaps a good moment to re-read this: Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing: http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf tl;dr: "Because it means life is not incredibly unlikely (after all, it occurred on two planets in our own solar system); ergo what must instead be incredibly unlikely is the ability for life to progress to the point where it can spread across the galaxy (after all, no…

That's a bullshit argument. If we find life very close to us, it's very likely there is a common origin, and this gives us no information on the Great Filter.

1. If we find life very close to us, that does indeed increase the probability of the panspermia hypothesis.

2. The probability of panspermia will still not be 1, or even approaching 1. That leaves enough room to avoid "bullshit argument" in favor of "questionable argument," which is a caveat Bostrom (and Hanson, in his Great Filter) would happily agree to.

3. Even if single-origin life has seeded multiple planets, if the seeding occurred far enough in the past and widely enough, that still leaves us with an anthropic filter problem.

Re: NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery

#60

Post by forgotAgain »

darwinGod wrote: post #54
Vivtek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes.

wow, I didnt get how 33 people blindly agree and upvote a one-word answer, offering no perspective at all , to a very valid question on how a successful outcome to SETI would influence an average guy's life!! Surely, this is not a open-and-shut question. Let me dampen some spirits who are gleefully waiting to see breaking news of extra-terrestrial life. Think about the budget and investment into this grand objective.…

Think Marv Albert the basketball announcer: "Yes!".
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