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My journey applying AI to horse racing

towardsdatascience.com

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Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#51

Post by shoo »

gricardo99 wrote: post #46
shaunray wrote: post #43

Actually the most successful parimutuel syndicates and HNWI bet programmatically through API’s. They consistently win and they do not make their money from picking a single winner. They bet on exotic bets that have much higher odds and are easier to box. For instance picking two winners or order of the first three horses. Source: I worked on those APIs to integrate with 20+ exchanges over three companies and 10 years…

That sounds fascinating. I don’t suppose you have a blog, or any other write up about that world? Even perhaps a link to one of these betting APIs, if they’re generally available to the public?

not horse racing, but there's also a book by Steven Skiena titled "Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win" -- it's about the author's interest in betting on jai-alai matches. there's a bit of stuff about parimutuel betting & understanding how the structure of jai-alai round robin tournaments can produce pretty unusual odds in some scenarios, which can be exploited.

technologically the book is a couple of decades out of date, but it's probably worth a read.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#52

Post by malbs »

gricardo99 wrote: post #46
shaunray wrote: post #43

Actually the most successful parimutuel syndicates and HNWI bet programmatically through API’s. They consistently win and they do not make their money from picking a single winner. They bet on exotic bets that have much higher odds and are easier to box. For instance picking two winners or order of the first three horses. Source: I worked on those APIs to integrate with 20+ exchanges over three companies and 10 years…

That sounds fascinating. I don’t suppose you have a blog, or any other write up about that world? Even perhaps a link to one of these betting APIs, if they’re generally available to the public?

Betfair API is 100% free for customers with a lot of code examples in various languages.

Tabcorps TABStudio - http://studio.tab.com.au/ (You need to register as a tabcorp customer but it's "free"). Its basically a JSON REST API

NZ TAB have their batch mode, at filebet.tab.co.nz, which is nothing more than a file upload system.

The ATG, and the other Scandinavian totes provide coupon upload systems (where you generate a coupon file with your selections in it, using third party software), but if you win they will end up banning you.

Most providers keep their APIs hidden or require signing NDAs or other types of contracts, I'm referring to companies like Amtote, Churchill Downs, PMU, BetFred, PGI, LeTurf etc

Usually they're quite surprised when you contact them about doing "integration work", a lot of the APIs are designed for retailer shops to integrate with. For example, I've done some integration work with BetFred, where my client never wants to cancel a bet (placed at the last possible moment), however in order to pass their integration tests, I have to fully support cancelling a wager, just like any retail shop would.

On a side note, I have used (at least one of) the APIs shaunray was referring to that he had worked on.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#53

Post by malbs »

shaunray wrote: post #50
gricardo99 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds fascinating. I don’t suppose you have a blog, or any other write up about that world? Even perhaps a link to one of these betting APIs, if they’re generally available to the public?

Betfair has a public API, but they are not parimutuel: https://docs.developer.betfair.com/display/1smk3cen4v3lu3yom... Tabcorp is an Australian Wagering Company that offers real-time horse racing APIs: https://studio.tab.com.au/ Others are a little less public and you need to sign up with an account and prove you are a syndicate. Hong Kong Jockey Club, UniBet, Amtote. I don't normally talk about this history as I was…

hah, how funny I almost copied your post word for word ;)

What are you up to now Shaun? Are you still in Hobart?

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#54

Post by malbs »

Here's my 2 cents.

Anyone who is telling you they have cracked the parimutuel pools, and "here's how to do it", is trying to sell you something else. Anyone who has actually cracked the parimutuel pools knows how they work, and that if you share your "tips", or selections, you only serve to diminish your own returns, so you are not going to do it.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#55

Post by mimixco »

The OP writes repeatedly that the "odds of winning are related to the amount bet on each horse." This is not correct. The payout is related to the number of people betting. The odds of winning are based on the horse's DNA, training, competitors, etc. The horse does not know who bet it on it while it's running. It's easy to confuse the word "odds" in gambling because that often refers to payout, but these are not the odds of winning.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#56

Post by mimixco »

jedberg wrote: post #8

This is another case where being rich lets you get richer. :) I had a friend who had a private box at a horse track. One of the benefits of this box was that you had a personal betting machine. This let you bet on the best odds just seconds before the race every time. I made a lot of money doing that. You can kind of do it in Vegas too because the sports books aren't usually that busy. In fact, that hardest part of t…

You can bet directly from your phone while standing at the rail if you want to.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#57

Post by mimixco »

scottlocklin wrote: post #22
sorokod wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case there is no house. For this to work a player needs to be able to back or lay an outcome. "In harness racing, you are playing against all the other players. You are not playing the house. The odds of any given horse winning is directly related to the amount of money on it."

I'm pretty sure these races are pari-mutuel where the house takes a vigorish. The sentence you give is basically the definition of pari-mutuel without the vig. FWIIW the author is wrong that this problem is unstudied. There are actual hedge funds which do nothing but this and a quick google search provides numerous academic examples; even a github repo. "Deep learning" is probably the worst approach I can think of to…

Who offers parimutuel betting without vig? Sign me up! The cumulative losses from vigorish are the reason that most people cannot make money with horse racing over time, regardless of their skill in picking winners or spotting edge cases. The OP is right in saying you're not playing against the house since the house/track/government takes a piece of every bet. They don't care who wins.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#58

Post by mimixco »

xiavan405 wrote: post #27
surfsvammel wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t say that horse racing is understudied. It is saying that harness racing is understudied. Normal horse racing is very different to harness racing. Also. The simulated betting on on the favourite on those 26000 races was with one dollar per race. If the favourite win, the balance increases with 1$*the odds. If the favourite does not win, the balance decreases with 1$. Nothing strange about it, and as I tried…

scottlocklin didnt say horse racing is understudied. his sources are specific to harness racing.

Parimutuel betting works the same way regardless of what you're betting on. It could be thoroughbreds, harness racing, or jai alai. Technically, you can offer parimutuel wagering on anything, even football or car races.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#59

Post by mimixco »

michaelscott wrote: post #21
LiamPa wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value is value, doesn’t matter if it wins, its all a numbers game.

There's no payout if the horse doesn't win. It doesn't operate like the stock market.

This is not correct, either. Horse racing allows bets on the second and third finishers, as well, not just the winner.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#60

Post by mimixco »

malbs wrote: post #54

Here's my 2 cents. Anyone who is telling you they have cracked the parimutuel pools, and "here's how to do it", is trying to sell you something else. Anyone who has actually cracked the parimutuel pools knows how they work, and that if you share your "tips", or selections, you only serve to diminish your own returns, so you are not going to do it.

Indeed. This is the origin of the expression "break a leg." At the track, you could never wish someone else good luck because their good luck will cost you money. Instead, you wish their horse breaks a leg so he'll be eliminated, moving the money in his pool to yours if you win.
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