Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 121 posts

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#51

Post by repsilat »

aliston wrote: post #17

How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable. These articles are silly. You'll find them for every time the market sneezes. October 2015, World Faces a Recession Next Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/citis-buiter-world-faces-rec... June 2016, The Next Recession is Already Here: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-alread..…

> How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable.

Nonsense.

Say I have a coin that I suspect has heads on both sides. Instead of just checking the coin, I flip it ten times in a row and check the result -- ten heads. "Coin flips suggest 'heads' unavoidable."

The article is saying there is some situation in which a recession is unavoidable, and signs point to us being in that situation.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#52

Post by reasonablemann »

Recessions are a necessary part of the business cycle. A lot of people would argue that global central banks have gone too far trying to avoid a recession and thus the next recession will be particularly brutal.

Like laws designed to encourage forest growth, when the fire eventually comes it burns far brighter than the fire that burns in a forest left alone.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#53

Post by mandelbrotwurst »

Symmetry wrote: post #32

If you could know a recession was inevitable some time soon from publicly available information then that recession wouldn't happen in the predicted time frame. Everybody would see it coming, take their money out of the market, and it would happen instantly.

My hypothetical ability to predict the future does not mean that you're able to do the same.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#54

Post by maxxxxx »

cwperkins wrote: post #48
maxxxxx wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't them rushing to an IPO a signal that they think there will be a downturn?

Not refuting that a recession is coming, just that it won't be in 2019.

Their IPOs maybe the last hooray. I hope it won't be as bad as 2002-2003 for tech employment. That wasn't much fun.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#55

Post by no_one_ever »

smogcutter wrote: post #41
robertcorey wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you think the market will go down you should short it...

I'm pretty ignorant here, how do you short "the market"?

buy contracts for the ability to sell shares at a determined price later when the underlying share is actually worth less than what you are contractually allowed to sell it at.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#56

Post by [deleted] »

aliston wrote: post #17

How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable. These articles are silly. You'll find them for every time the market sneezes. October 2015, World Faces a Recession Next Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/citis-buiter-world-faces-rec... June 2016, The Next Recession is Already Here: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-alread..…

[deleted]

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#57

Post by bena »

aliston wrote: post #17

How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable. These articles are silly. You'll find them for every time the market sneezes. October 2015, World Faces a Recession Next Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/citis-buiter-world-faces-rec... June 2016, The Next Recession is Already Here: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-alread..…

That suggestion could be wrong, yes. But they're saying that there are indicators that even if everything was done right we still go into a recession.

And regardless, to your other point, if you always predict the opposite of the status quo, you'll eventually be right. That guy holding the sign saying "The End is Near", one day, he'll be right too.

So, yes, these articles are silly.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#58

Post by iscrewyou »

jamestimmins wrote: post #49

Things that keep me up at night as a software contractor/freelancer: if there's a recession, are contractors the first to go? One counter-argument is that contractors can be a cheaper way for companies to build products (since it's not full time), which might mean companies favor contractors. On the other hand, companies who are reluctant to lay off full-time staff may start by canceling contract relationships.

I would assume contractors are first to go. Work moves in house. In house staff gets cut. The remaining staff gets to work on what the contractor did and what the employees that left did. The company is not beholden to contractors as much as they are to their left over employees. Everybody has got to pay bill. The company will usually look out for their employees.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#59

Post by harshulpandav »

Symmetry wrote: post #32

If you could know a recession was inevitable some time soon from publicly available information then that recession wouldn't happen in the predicted time frame. Everybody would see it coming, take their money out of the market, and it would happen instantly.

And with this mindset most people will not take any action until the big guys have taken an action. The timing could be the predicted time frame. But it is only too late by then and middle and lower class suffer. Top 1% controls around 40% of America's wealth.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#60

Post by nodesocket »

smogcutter wrote: post #41
robertcorey wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you think the market will go down you should short it...

I'm pretty ignorant here, how do you short "the market"?

If you don't know how to short, you should NOT be shorting. Shorting is incredibly risky with limited upside and unlimited downside.
Post reply on HN