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NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

theguardian.com

51–60 of 477 posts

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#51
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems unlikely to plummet to ruinous levels. Ridership has risen by 800 million people since 1990, but there's fewer miles of track and only a few dozen cars. It seems that the system is strained well beyond its limits and that it might be possible that having fewer people use the subway might allow a chance to fix it? The issue seems to be largely administrative based on every article I've read. There needs to be an…

> and only a few dozen cars Did you mean to say "a few dozen more cars"?

yes. good catch. They've only ADDED a few dozen cars in that time.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#52

> Turning things around will require a huge infusion of cash I keep hearing this with zero justification. Why? I’m sceptical of New York’s public agencies asking for lots of cash. I assume there are legitimate projects, but the MTA has been horrible at showing the public this demanded money will be well spent.

> I keep hearing this with zero justification. Why? I'm confident officials have neglected long term maintenance costs when planning and building all the various infrastructure of major cities. The modus operandi is always underfund the project, get people to rely on it (or at least make the case of not just throwing away the first $x when all you need is $y to complete it), beg for more funding. Maybe the problem is…

The subway in NYC is what makes it one of the most dynamic, attractive, and innovative cities in the US. The density also creates a critical mass of people in certain industries that drive spontaneous creation of new industry, companies, technology.

The real misallocation of resources are sleepy suburbs where people hide in their bedroom watching tv, while the city road and water infrastructure costs orders of magnitude more than the tax revenue or productive capacity of the land is capable of supporting.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#53
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jesus dude, what?? NYC's fantastic. It's one of the safest major metropolitan areas in the world filled with a tremendous variety of culture. It's the most diverse place on the planet with only London even being at a comparable level. And the level of contempt for people riding subways? Where do you get off? Not only are they better for the environment, they're one of the great equalizers. Any person can ride the sub…

> And the level of contempt for people riding subways? Where do you get off? Not only are they better for the environment, they're one of the great equalizers. I don't have contempt for people riding the subway, I have contempt for the organization that perpetrates that fraud on society. > Any person can ride the subway for the same price as anyone else and get around the entire city 24 hours a day. At what cost? As…

Your analysis is exactly backwards base on history. One of the main drives to create corporate campuses outside of cities was to prevent competing firms from recruiting employees. Same goes for creating company restaurants and dry cleaning etc. keep employees on your campus and a way from competition. When they work downtown and walk out into the community they bump into people randomly and those unexpected connections can create new relationships.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#54
post #27
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can ridership in NYC really plummet? It's not like everybody there has a car that they can take to work.

Seems unlikely to plummet to ruinous levels. Ridership has risen by 800 million people since 1990, but there's fewer miles of track and only a few dozen cars. It seems that the system is strained well beyond its limits and that it might be possible that having fewer people use the subway might allow a chance to fix it? The issue seems to be largely administrative based on every article I've read. There needs to be an…

What rail got destroyed since 1990?

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#55
> Drastically cut service or increase fares

There's another option: disband the MTA Union, the primary driver of operations costs. They have blocked technology and safety upgrades for decades to keep 'those darn computers and robots from taking jobs from poor workers just trying to make a living'.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#56
Over the summer The New Yorker had a story on the president of the NYC Transit Authority. Entitled Can Andy Byford Save The Subways[1]? I found it interesting. They had a rather optimistic take, but this article 4 months later makes me think its not going well.

[1] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/09/can-andy-byfor...

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#57
post #13

The article briefly mentioned competition from ride sharing services but I wonder to what extent it's made an impact. Anecdotally, given how cheap Uber and Lyft are in Manhattan (typically $4-5 for a shared ride), I often find myself opting for that instead of dealing with the hassles of the subway system. Both are unreliable when it comes to timeliness, as ride sharing services often take longer than expected (espec…

Yeah, I'd be very interested to learn about anything about the sensitivities of ridership to other external variables in general. Looking at the article's linked presentation [1] and the MTA's most recent financial plan [2] it seems like all the hurt is coming from really huge declines in projected revenues - labor costs seem to be growing pretty reasonably but there's basically zero projected growth in fares. If som…

Reducing service, unless you want to do it really painfully, is unlikely to do much in the long run. A good chunk of the costs are employee related (health/pensions) and debt service. The MTA shouldn't default on its bonds, and in NYS you can't constitutionally modify government pensions after they've been given. And the MTA hires as many drivers and buys trains and buses based on peak demand; cutting off-peak is unlikely to do much since you wouldn't be reducing the absolute number of drivers you need.

In fact, cutting off-peak services would probably worsen the budget outlook long-term, since the marginal cost of an off-peak service is very low.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#58
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, I haven't been to New York in a while, but I'm guessing that you were poorly informed. Usually when public transit networks start showing strain, it's during rush hours, when they're handling massive spikes in ridership. To give an example from Chicago: If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand…

> If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand a good chance of waiting 30 minutes for a train that you can even physically get on to. What line are you describing? I take the L every day from downtown around 5 and I can reliably get on the first train and it will arrive in < 10 minutes (and there's a…

This all depends on the time that you get on the train. Also he was talking about C&L. It is quite possible that you could have 3+ trains go by and still not get in the train between 5-6:30pm. Often times, you'll have your back to the door. During those time's it's better to go south to come back up north. (But you didn't get that advice from me) It's rare to get a completely empty train at C&L during rush hour and there are frequent gaps that are 6+min.

Now UIC Halsted, you're very likely to get a seat, not always though.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#59
The MTA claims that New York City's transit system doesn't have enough funding to keep up with requirements. Critics of the MTA claim that the transit system has more funding than ever, and just isn't keeping up because of some vague inefficiencies or incompetencies.

This is the exact same argument that we have when it comes to education, health care, defense, and so forth. Some argue that it's because government spending is inherently inefficient, and while that may be true, that doesn't explain how governments outside of the United States still seem to be a lot more efficient than governments inside the United States, nor does it explain similar phenomena in things like housing.

This seems like a very broad problem that is currently beneath the public consciousness. SSC's "Considerations on Cost Disease" (http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-...) is the first general discussion I've found of this, though Scott Alexander cites a paywalled Tyler Cowen piece in Bloomberg.

(Fair warning: while SSC doesn't mention defense spending as an example of this, the US has a ridiculously high defense budget without actually having the quantity or quality of troops and ships and aircraft that such a budget would imply. If China's defense budget were the same as ours, they would whip our ass in a conventional war.)

Whatever the shared root cause or causes are, they need to be addressed. Just giving MTA, Medicare, the Pentagon, universities, etc. more and more money isn't going to be sustainable. And, despite the ramblings of certain conspiratorially-minded folk, I also don't really think this is inflation in disguise, because then you'd also have to explain why there hasn't been a corresponding increase in the costs of e.g. basic groceries.

I don't have any answers here; I just don't think we're asking the right questions if we just restrict the discussion to the specific areas where we see this happen.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#60
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That really hurts most a lot of poor people who work odd hours. Then suddenly they have to find a way home or two work that will be much more expensive and eat into their earnings. I'm not sure what the solution is, but "that's really all there is to it" will affect very negatively hundreds of thousands of people in NYC.

To serve much better for 99.9% commuters or serve poorly for 100% commuters, isn't that a easier decision?

i dont think it's really that simple. even it was i don't think the decision is that easy anyway.

it's important to think about who your decisions affect, even if they may be a minority (which is bigger than 0.1%). why is it okay to put more burden on the people who already have the most burden as it is?

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