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China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

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Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#51

Post by mc32 »

hourislate wrote: post #44
tambourine_man wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure. Tim Cook seemed to suggest the iPhone couldn’t be manufactured anywhere else.

China sources most of the components for Apple Products from different countries. Here is a list of countries that provide the parts. https://www.quora.com/Where-is-the-iPhone-originally-made As you can see it would be fairly easy to for Apple/Foxconn to source these parts and build their products in the USA. I think the big motivator for them is they would rather outsource manufacturing to Foxconn and wash their han…

Also Foxconn could move ops back to Taiwan, albeit a bit expensive labor wise.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#52

Post by philwelch »

lgleason wrote: post #36

As much as some people here may hate Trump, the fact is that he was right when we said that it is difficult for us to lose a trade war with China since we import more from them than we export. Is there going to be some short term pain? Absolutely! But, long term it is likely to create more jobs in the US. As an extra bonus, there won't be as much of a carbon footprint for shipping things half way around the world and…

We won’t lose more than China does, but we’re still going to lose a fair amount of wealth and standard of living.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#53

Post by beamatronic »

kasey_junk wrote: post #49
Retric wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi Oil is a commodity, but many country’s don’t have oil. Every country has low skilled workers.

Low skilled workers doesn’t accurately describe what China brings to the table currently. They effectively are the only place in the world you can source certain parts of the electronic supply chain at the volume currently necessary. They’ve been up the technical ladder for decades at the same time as other places have shed that capability. It would take a long time for Vietnam to come online. I’d guess Korea or Japa…

What is a dramatic price impact in the context of Apple products. 5%? 10%? Would that really stop you? They keep hiking the prices anyway.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#54

Post by kasey_junk »

adventured wrote: post #26
riphay wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but they are paid by the importer and (usually) passed on to the consumer. In effect they become a subsidy for local industry paid by consumers.

It's equivalent to the US implementing a VAT, except superior as it directly encourages replacement domestic manufacturing rather than merely acting as a tax on goods (as in the case of steel and aluminum, which are seeing US steel companies boom again with vast profit growth). It doesn't merely redistribute wealth from one company to another. It reclaims critical domestic industrial investment and blue collar jobs a…

It’s not at all like a VAT as it doesn’t impact everyone equally. It’s redistributing wealth to specific market participants from others.

In this case almost all profits that come to the domestic producers of steel come from the domestic consumers (and those impacted by tit for tat tariffs).

There might be very good reasons to prefer some industries to others but as a revenue source tariffs are not at all like a neutral VAT.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#55

Post by seanmcdirmid »

mc32 wrote: post #51
hourislate wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China sources most of the components for Apple Products from different countries. Here is a list of countries that provide the parts. https://www.quora.com/Where-is-the-iPhone-originally-made As you can see it would be fairly easy to for Apple/Foxconn to source these parts and build their products in the USA. I think the big motivator for them is they would rather outsource manufacturing to Foxconn and wash their han…

Also Foxconn could move ops back to Taiwan, albeit a bit expensive labor wise.

But still cheaper than the US.

I don't see iPhones being made in the US anytime soon, there are many places in Asia other than China that would be higher up the list than the states.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#56

Post by ThomPete »

adventured wrote: post #32
ThomPete wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Winning is reaching a better agreement than we have now. China is still considered a developing country by the WTO, it's very difficult to get into the Chinese market and they don't actually enforce IP rights which is a problem both for the US and EU.

The EU does indeed have the same issues. The single best move Trump can make, is to resolve NAFTA (looks likely), then strike a deal with the EU (also looks likely), along with Japan (up in the air). The EU has very openly stated that they have the exact same problems with China as the US does. They couldn't any further telegraph their interest in conspiring with the US to tame China's abuses. Indeed it may be the on…

Which is also why it's absurd the EU goes out of their way to distance them from the US because of Trump.

He is in the right on this one despite his style but sometimes that's what you need.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#57

Post by kasey_junk »

lgleason wrote: post #36

As much as some people here may hate Trump, the fact is that he was right when we said that it is difficult for us to lose a trade war with China since we import more from them than we export. Is there going to be some short term pain? Absolutely! But, long term it is likely to create more jobs in the US. As an extra bonus, there won't be as much of a carbon footprint for shipping things half way around the world and…

This requires trade to be zero sum. It’s not. Even if we “win” the trade war we can lose if not having done it at all was better.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#58

Post by debacle »

stephen-mw wrote: post #47
apo wrote: post #4

Some hard-liners want a more aggressive stance. Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position. If anyth…

I think the path to get us there (reshoring chips) would be extremely painful, but it certainly would be a better position for the United States to restore our ability to produce these critical components. Also, just in time for this research to get off the ground: > If it all works out, the effect could be to make small groups of engineers capable of feats that would take 100 engineers to achieve today. https://spec…

Reshoring chips would be far less painful than other types of manufacturing. The tooling is complex but the supply chain is less so.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#59

Post by macintux »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #38
enitihas wrote: post #12

I initially used to think China might have more leverage against any potential trade war agains the US, as: 1. The Chinese had option of imposing high tariffs on politically significant US agricultural products, like soyabean, which are not very large in $ value, but affect a lot of areas. 2. Since some swing states are highly influential in US elections, the Chinese always had the option of imposing tariffs which im…

Point number two has been preoccupying my brain the last few months. Our system of electing presidents tend to hinge on several swing states, and in those states, a few key districts, and this means that our elections are vulnerable to foreign influence much more so than if, say, presidents were elected by popular vote. Protecting elections may mean ending winner take all electoral college system.

> Protecting elections may mean ending winner take all electoral college system.

I think 2016 proved that the electoral college is not supplying the adult oversight that the founders intended.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#60

Post by seanmcdirmid »

adventured wrote: post #23
sct202 wrote: post #18

China still hasn't pulled out the boycott card like they have recently done to both Korean and Japanese companies for perceived slights. A lot of F500 companies are reliant on China's consumer market to meet their quarterly goals, and would be vulnerable.

That's because China would be largely punching itself in the face at the same time. One of the unexpected benefits of China having forced everyone to partner up with local companies. They'd be considerably harming their own companies and economy in the process. When your country owns the majority of the popular Shanghai Disney park, do you call a boycott on it (via boycotting all things Disney)? When your country own…

That didn't stop protestors from smashing up Japanese branded cars, which were all built in 51-49 JVs.
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