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Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

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Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#51

Post by cptskippy »

rb808 wrote: post #48
derekp7 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about the trade offs between a high-range EV vs. a PHEV. For me, a pure EV with less than 500 mile range couldn't be my only car, however it could be a secondary car (used for daily commuting, then switch over to something that takes gasoline if I'm away for the weekend). But even for a daily driver, most days I only need about 50 miles range on most days. So for a Tesla model S or 3, I'd be haulin…

I'd buy a BMW 330e over a Tesla any day. I think much more realistic at this stage of the tech curve. (to be clear I'm not going to buy either) (To be clearer I can't afford either)

> I think much more realistic at this stage of the tech curve.

As a native English speaker I have no idea what you're saying. At best you're saying that a Tesla is an unrealistic option for your unspecified context.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#52

Post by vvillena »

fhood wrote: post #38
athenot wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of now, yes. The 2019 Nissan LEAF is projected to have meet your range requirement. I've had the 2013 and the 2015 models, they are good cars in their own right. If they made them slightly larger (but not an SUV), I'd be getting my 3rd one this year.

Really ugly though. Do car companies really think they need an completely new design language for electric cars? One thing Tesla did right was to avoid pushing the style envelope too far from the get-go. Edit: If they ever get that electric Golf to similar range, I think that will be a pretty good option.

The new Leaf follows the current Nissan aesthetics. It's not like the old Leaf, which was different from the rest of their lineup.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#53

Post by cptskippy »

jcranmer wrote: post #25
startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Uh... from all the reporting I've seen, SolarCity isn't a major factor in solar installation, and certainly not the leader. From the 10-K, Tesla installed 523MW of solar capacity in 2017. The US alone installed 10,608MW of solar capacity in 2017. Assuming th…

> Tesla is responsible for 5% market share... that is nowhere near the leader.

My understanding is that a market leader has the largest share among competitors, not a majority. If the next largest company only has 4.5% of the market, then Tesla/SolarCity is the leader.

That being said, if Tesla is the leader then competition is fierce and the market is ripe for consolidation.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#54

Post by cptskippy »

gcb0 wrote: post #36
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't pass US (and I would imagine European) crash test requirements.

like japanese cars couldn't pass US crash tests in the 80s? How well that worked out for US automakers?

You're confusing tenses I think, can't not couldn't.

Chinese cars today CAN'T pass safety standards today. That doesn't preclude them form passing in the future. It just means if you bought a Chinese car today and tested it against US safety standards today, it would fail.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#55

Post by rb808 »

cptskippy wrote: post #51
rb808 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd buy a BMW 330e over a Tesla any day. I think much more realistic at this stage of the tech curve. (to be clear I'm not going to buy either) (To be clearer I can't afford either)

> I think much more realistic at this stage of the tech curve. As a native English speaker I have no idea what you're saying. At best you're saying that a Tesla is an unrealistic option for your unspecified context.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle

I mean there is not much competition in electric cars right now because its still a new product, only for a few early adopters. In time it will become more mainstream with more choice and for me its only then would I look for one.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#56

Post by prostoalex »

pjc50 wrote: post #22
btian wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with S and X? They're great cars.

The model S costs ninety thousand dollars . That's what's wrong with it.

If you don't do your own maintenance, the 7-year TCO figure (which in the United States is the average length of ownership https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/americans-holding-onto-their...) can reach or surpass that, especially with some of the premium brands.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#57

Post by jcranmer »

cptskippy wrote: post #53
jcranmer wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Uh... from all the reporting I've seen, SolarCity isn't a major factor in solar installation, and certainly not the leader. From the 10-K, Tesla installed 523MW of solar capacity in 2017. The US alone installed 10,608MW of solar capacity in 2017. Assuming th…

> Tesla is responsible for 5% market share... that is nowhere near the leader. My understanding is that a market leader has the largest share among competitors, not a majority. If the next largest company only has 4.5% of the market, then Tesla/SolarCity is the leader. That being said, if Tesla is the leader then competition is fierce and the market is ripe for consolidation.

First Solar sold 6GW of solar in 2017 in the US alone. Admittedly, that's not installed (current production capacity is around 3GW per annum), but their largest individual installation is 280MW, about half of Tesla's total production.

First Solar is merely the largest US-based solar company; some Chinese companies are even larger in terms of volume.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#58

Post by prostoalex »

cptskippy wrote: post #53
jcranmer wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Uh... from all the reporting I've seen, SolarCity isn't a major factor in solar installation, and certainly not the leader. From the 10-K, Tesla installed 523MW of solar capacity in 2017. The US alone installed 10,608MW of solar capacity in 2017. Assuming th…

> Tesla is responsible for 5% market share... that is nowhere near the leader. My understanding is that a market leader has the largest share among competitors, not a majority. If the next largest company only has 4.5% of the market, then Tesla/SolarCity is the leader. That being said, if Tesla is the leader then competition is fierce and the market is ripe for consolidation.

The solar installations market is broken down into residential (where SolarCity might be the leader), commercial (office parks) and utility scale.

Residential is the largest by quantity of installations, but when you look at the total production numbers, utility-scale easily blows everyone away https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_sta...

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#59

Post by cptskippy »

rb808 wrote: post #55
cptskippy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think much more realistic at this stage of the tech curve. As a native English speaker I have no idea what you're saying. At best you're saying that a Tesla is an unrealistic option for your unspecified context.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle I mean there is not much competition in electric cars right now because its still a new product, only for a few early adopters. In time it will become more mainstream with more choice and for me its only then would I look for one.

I would say we are transitioning from early adopter to early majority phase. Electric cars are not new fiddly technology for rich folks who like to dabble. They're not toys that the youth are wasting their money on. They're here and people are buying them en masse.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#60

Post by vntok »

rb808 wrote: post #35

I dont think it will be a real car company until you see. * Crappy ads on local tv with Incentives to get excess inventory off the lot * Old models in the scrap yard * Disappointing resale values * Unions on strike * Mechanics who making blowing noises when you drive onto the lot and ask how much to fix * Management out for themselves * Factories in some run down city in the midwest Until then its still a novelty com…

Hmm they do #2 already, and #4 (ish, no unions yet but threats of unionizing), elon musk is pretty much a guaranteed check on #6 and as for #7... can you be more run down than in the middle of the desert?
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