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What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

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Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#51

Post by mkempe »

mrfusion wrote: post #37
macinjosh wrote: post #8

Global warming is real and humans contribute to it. Just stating that so I am not called a 'denier' as I have been before. That being said, the computer models predicting what the consequences of global warming will be, have greatly over estimated (at least the timeline of) real world impacts. Since I was a kid I've heard in the news that in the next 5 years or 10 years there will be all these catastrophes linked to…

Along a similar vein the rain forests were supposed to have disappeared 10 years ago and I think we were all supposed to suffocate. That’s what I remember hearing as a kid in the 90s. I wonder what went wrong with those predictions? Did we end up taking enough action to stop that?

Since CO2 is an essential nutrient for the kingdom of plants, the rise in CO2 level has caused land-based vegetation to increase 14% globally over 30 years, and phytoplankton to increase tenfold in the North Atlantic over 50 years.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#52

Post by DeRock »

Clanan wrote: post #47
michrassena wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what seems to be a chart of the last hundred and thirty-six years of global land-ocean temperature. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ It seems some years are cooler than others, but the general trend is upwards. I don't see where the last two years indicate much of a temperature drop. Do you have a source of information for your statement?

NASA GISS surface temp data [0]. Feb 2016 to Feb 2018. It's a noteworthy occurrence (and not something the news cycle would pick up) since the focus is always on warming. It certainly doesn't refute the short-term trends present. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Cherry picking 2 data points is not the right way to interpret a trend. 2016 was a spike, but if you look at the trend over the past 20 years (in the data set you linked) it is clear temperature is trending upwards at an accelerating pace.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#53

Post by collyw »

xoa wrote: post #16
collyw wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far the free market has failed spectacularly at addressing global warming.

The free market has never been used to address global warming (it's badly used in general in fact, possibly in part because few people seem to actually understand what it is or even internalize that it's a tool at all, not an end, and like any tool there are applications it is a poor fit for). Amongst the foundational requirements for a free market to work at all is that the price should embody all costs. There are s…

We got carbon trading a while back. That doesn't seem to have made any difference whatsoever.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#54

Post by RickJWagner »

macinjosh wrote: post #8

Global warming is real and humans contribute to it. Just stating that so I am not called a 'denier' as I have been before. That being said, the computer models predicting what the consequences of global warming will be, have greatly over estimated (at least the timeline of) real world impacts. Since I was a kid I've heard in the news that in the next 5 years or 10 years there will be all these catastrophes linked to…

Yes, I agree. In the late 70s, it was thought there would be a period of global cooling. Time and Newsweek ran cover stories on the next coming ice age.

Climate change is real, but we have to be more careful about politicizing and forecasting what will happen. The 'imminent danger!' storyline has been played out since the turn of the century (nearly 20 years now) with many failed famous predictions.

To be taken seriously (and it should be) we must be conservative and accurate in prognostications. Further exaggeration is only doing harm.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#55

Post by fulafel »

xoa wrote: post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

Here's EU's system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Emission_Tradin...

(nitpick: s/the free market/market mechanisms/ - free market implies lack of regulation and government involvement)

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#56

Post by michrassena »

Clanan wrote: post #47
michrassena wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what seems to be a chart of the last hundred and thirty-six years of global land-ocean temperature. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ It seems some years are cooler than others, but the general trend is upwards. I don't see where the last two years indicate much of a temperature drop. Do you have a source of information for your statement?

NASA GISS surface temp data [0]. Feb 2016 to Feb 2018. It's a noteworthy occurrence (and not something the news cycle would pick up) since the focus is always on warming. It certainly doesn't refute the short-term trends present. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

You're burying the lede here.

While 2017 was slightly cooler than the year preceding, it was the second hottest year since global temperature records began in 1880.

From the same page you linked. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20180118/

We'll see how 2018 compares. Look at the chart and you can see that it's not a straight line, it has ups and downs. I see no reason at all to assume that it's trending downward for the next few decades to erase the increase seen over the last century.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#57

Post by throwaway5752 »

antognini wrote: post #49
throwaway5752 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should note that the PETM CO2 increase was over multiple orders of magnitude (appr. 20,000 year vs 100) and theoretical rate of emission was 1-2 orders of magnitude less than the current rate.

While that's probably true, it's not known for certain what the rate of emission was. 20,000 years is only an upper bound. It's possible that the process that led to the CO2 emissions happened over very short timescales (e.g., a comet impact or volcanic activity). Until we know the process, we can't constrain the rate.

I upvoted you, thank you for replying, but please give me a bit of charity and understand I was replying with the standard geological uncertainties assumed. But my understanding is the best fit is volcanic activity by peat or coal beds over a much longer relative timeframe than current emissions.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#58

Post by perl4ever »

dbingham wrote: post #29
macinjosh wrote: post #8

Global warming is real and humans contribute to it. Just stating that so I am not called a 'denier' as I have been before. That being said, the computer models predicting what the consequences of global warming will be, have greatly over estimated (at least the timeline of) real world impacts. Since I was a kid I've heard in the news that in the next 5 years or 10 years there will be all these catastrophes linked to…

The over-sensationalization is purely the media. It's not coming from the models or the scientists running them. Please don't over generalize your anecdotal experience to an entire field. Especially not with something this important. The models have consistently undershot the mark: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-p... As for climate disasters, we've had Katrina (2005) - 3rd most intense lan…

If there were no trend, then there would still be new records established over time, because the longer we keep records for, the more time there is for rare events to occur.

So I think that in order to argue that new records are evidence in favor of a trend, one needs to quantify the likelihood of it not being due to chance somehow.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#59

Post by perl4ever »

algo646464 wrote: post #48
collyw wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far the free market has failed spectacularly at addressing global warming.

The free market cannot suitably address the "tragedy of the commons". If all companies currently follow expensive but environment-friendly processes, a rouge company can undercut them by following a cheaper but environment-harmful process. This will either force other companies to follow the rogue company, or they go out of business.

"The free market cannot suitably address the "tragedy of the commons"."

You seem to be implicitly saying that property rights cannot be established and enforced, as this is how markets are used to solve such problems. Similar things have been done though, no?

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