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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#51

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

> Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much.

Yeah and he is totally wrong in that. His own writing before the recession argued for that to be false.

Once in power of the central bank many other people were involved and they were not willing (in the beginning to use those tools). Eventually they figured it out but by that point it was way to late.

The problem was that people were so obsessed with inflation that the central bank flat out refused to go above 2% and that would clearly have been needed from a monetary perspective.

This was a clearly a flat out instiutional failure from the Fed and Bernanke tried his best in his book to shovel that under the table.

We know this because the meeting are public, they were debating about fear of to much inflation in late 2008 when all economic indicated were pointing to a major collapse.

> At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy.

But those things did not cause the economy to collapse. The economy collapsed because of a massive demand shortfall with NGDP going almost 9% below trend.

> I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt in the world, we are likely heading towards a global debt write-off.

Easy to say. But the fact is that those things almost never happen and the only cases where it did was after major wars.

> It doesn’t help that China has essentially been spewing entirely fictitious accounting numbers for the last 20 years.

Whatever they claim go to China and see the growth.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#53
post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

This is good as an alternative take: https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-...

Yeah maybe don't start with some snake-oil anti-everything guy. Read the actual literature first and then go to those claiming to know better.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#54

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

No one believes any of the economic numbers coming out of China. There is a whole art and science in trying to find and figure out the real Chinese GDP and GDP growth numbers.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macroeconomics by Paul Krugman and Robin Wells is a good one.

Please don't read anything by Paul Krugman, unless you believe we are in the global recession he predicted after Trump's election.

Krugman now is a political hack but his earlier work was ok, including his early books.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#56

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

> global debt write-off

This would also be a global abolition of the private pension system, FYI.

People keep talking about debt write-off, but interest rates are bouncing off the lower bound. These are difficult to reconcile.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#57

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

Writing off sovereign debt always comes with strings attached for the creditors - the terms will by definition be anti-democratic and could be incredibly dangerous. An improvement in global inequality is not a likely outcome.

That's only true if the debt is in a foreign currency. Not sure you can call that "sovereign debt".

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#59

I wish the money printing game ended. The longer it goes the rougher the finale will be, globally. 1.5 T USD will push inflation globally.

Do you have any actual evidence that inflation is globally rising. No market the TIPS spread does not indicate what you claim.

If you are so convinced this is true you should be a rich in a couple years.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#60
My inner skeptic asks: What is Bernanke's record on predictions that he has made in the past?

He said that subprime was "contained" in 2008, IIRC.

The Mises Institute (an avowed hater of the Fed) has this, for example: https://mises.org/library/ben-bernanke-was-incredibly-uncann...

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