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Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

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Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#51
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimism isn’t delusional. They’re already making ~192k vehicles a year at their current 3/S/X production rate ( which will only increase ). You would have to be malicious or ignorant to think that can’t be scaled up to NUMMIs previous 350k/year run rate in the next 3-12 months. Disclosure: TSLA shareholder

2017 was its best year, and it produced ~101,000 vehicles: https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/3/16846860/tesla-2017-delive...

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Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#52

I was next to Model X at a stoplight last night. They look nice from a distance, but when you sit up close you can see where every panel and piece of trim just doesn't line up quite right. Sitting in my cheap little Mazda3, I've never noticed any problem with simple fit-and-finish details like that. I truly hope the Model 3s catch up, but I really think those owners will be in for a world of headaches after delivery.

As much as I want Tesla to win, I messed around with the back-seat center cup-holders in a friend's model 3, and they seem to be constructed with extremely cheap plastic that is quite embarrassing.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#53
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

How are the other makers "years behind" Tesla? The Model S is the best-selling EV but not by an order of magnitude. GM was pretty close last year in sales and I don't think it's a bad bet to bet that GM will beat Tesla in getting self-driving tech (GM Cruise is only second to Waymo in testing self-driving, at least in California). https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/30/the-5-best-selling... https://www.theverge.co…

Using one example to represent the industry is the issue in your premise. This list nicely proves my point:

How many EVs is Volkswagen selling per year?

How many EVs is Subaru selling per year?

How many EVs is Fiat selling per year?

How many EVs is Ferrari selling per year?

How many EVs is Daimler selling per year?

How many EVs is Ford selling per year?

How many EVs is PSA selling per year?

How many EVs is Hyundai Kia selling per year?

How many EVs is Mazda selling per year?

How many EVs is Suzuki selling per year?

Tesla is in fact still embarrassing the auto industry and selling EVs by an order of magnitude beyond what nearly all of the major auto companies are. The above listed companies are selling millions of fossil-fuel vehicles and should be heckled aggressively for it.

The fact that so few major automakers are selling EVs at all, demonstrates that what I've said is correct.

But hey, all these fossil-fuel makers have great plans for the future. One day soon.

The question is: how come those companies aren't being bankrupted for the horrific products they're producing by the millions? Where's the FUD attack on those corporations (which would actually be useful in dramatically improving the world)? Priorities are entirely screwed up when its the EV maker getting smacked around for not selling enough EVs.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#54

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#55
post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Yeah, and you need more than 2 data points to claim it is exponentially. This is bullshitty PR.

TO: 10 vehicles

T1: 40 vehicles

Is production growing 4x per T, or 30 vehicles per T?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#56
post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive.

I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers".

If Tesla admits and says - "We have improved but we are still behind on our original promise" then the stock price is going to drop like a rock.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#57
post #4

CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bloomberg." [1] From the statement: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles." A pretty big improvement, still some hard work to do, but they really are ramping up. I'm relieved at the announcement they won't need another debt/equity raise…

What matters is not how many they made, what matters is if they cut corners just to boost that number. Ideally those would be better quality cars but it looks very much like they were doing everything they could to just increase that one number without qualifying it in any way.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#58
post #39
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they are given a ton of credit. their stock value was a good proof of how much credit they were given but you can't keep being late and not delivering on promises to hundreds of thousands of customers who made deposits while the CEO is busy building flamethrowers amd hats to sell them on twitter

In case there is any confusion, Musk is not actually building flamethrowers and hats in person. His time is as wasted as saying "yes" to this ideas. Which is to say that not much at all.

I'm pretty sure those are his ideas ;)

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#59

There's a number of questions on this thread about Telsa's production uptick being about "burning the late night oil" or automation. Does anyone have any reliable insight into this question? And, regarding their automation, a few honest questions: 1. How much automation are we talking about, compared to the status quo? 2. How much of the automation is reusable across other models? Are they building up a repeatable mo…

Both are important.

They haven't ramped up automation yet, so right now they're burning the midnight oil on both regular production (i.e. likely with a similar labor/automation mix as typical manufacturers) AND tuning automation. Trying to do both simultaneously on a compressed timescale is what makes this hard.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#60
post #8

2,020 is under Elon's 2,500 prediction, but well above the 1,000-1,500 expectations of those shorting the stock (unless the shorts' articles were deliberately misleading, of course). Also, according to the release, those are customer-delivered numbers. Overall, a good trajectory and a sign of long-term health.

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