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Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

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Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#51

Post by gnode »

pyjammas wrote: post #42
bsaul wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people i've seen move away from facebook ended up in instagram and whatsapp. So i'm not worried for the stock in the long term. They do however need to prepare for the post-instragram era. Not sure what it's going to be.

I've been curious about what the effects are of people moving to Instagram and WhatsApp. I'm not too familiar with the former, but am I correct in assuming it's less useful, compared to FB proper, for both ads and information gathering? And with WhatsApp, if everything is indeed end-to-end encrypted, would this not be even more the case? Instead of a steady supply of chats, photos, location data, FB would 'only' have…

In Instagram's case, it's trivial to profile people by what they follow, and the platform has become heavily laden with ads. It was too much for me to bear, and the main reason I left it.

Also, I don't know about global statistics, but in the UK amongst adults, adblocker usage is around 22%. Delivering ads to these people becomes far easier in smartphone apps.

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#52

Post by ekovarski »

tjr225 wrote: post #25
stochastic_monk wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope this sticks. My family is quitting it, after thinking I was odd for not being on it the last few years. I don’t like being a product. Yes, Google products still make money off me, but I try to minimize it, and they’re at least slightly less callous.

> I don’t like being a product. I'm right there with you. I try not to use Google products either...I guess probably the only one I explicitly use still is Waze...there needs to be a mapping/traffic alternative.

I find I use Waze far less frequently or only for the last leg of the trip to find a nearby parking lot; Judging by the lack of fresh reports for road issues or speed traps, I'd say more folks might also be using other products. Their ads are also annoying esp when you are navigating your last leg of the trip and need to concentrate and it shows irrelevant ads.

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#53

Post by ekovarski »

asteli wrote: post #9
xbmcuser wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is a social network needed. Maybe because I am mostly a loner so I don't get it. I was on Facebook for few years as more people that I knew got on it just made get off it.

I'm not a loner, but I did find that it wasn't that hard to adjust to not having FB. One imagines all the things you'll miss out on by not having it, but honestly, you don't need to see what the deepest crevices of your social network are up to. People you're actually close to matter 100x more, and you're going to stay in touch with those people regardless.

Very true, wasn't there an adage about to find out who your real friends are just post that you need help moving and see how many show up. It's like being a cable cutter, at first you think you will miss out on a lot but you quickly realize that it ain't so bad and that the world didn't end.

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#54

Post by heedlessly2 »

raiyu wrote: post #11
twblalock wrote: post #3

The stock will come back, just as Wells Fargo, United Airlines, and Intel stock came back after their scandals. Facebook in particular will come back because there is no alternative social network with nearly as many people on it. The fundamentals of the business aren't really at risk -- most of the users will stay. The impact of potential privacy-related regulation is already priced in to a large extent because ever…

It's true that many companies come back from scandal but it really depends on the impact to the bottom line. Chipotle had tremendous negative press years ago from food poisoning issues and hasn't recovered since. Even though the number of instances are in the single digits compared to millions of burritos served on a monthly basis. With social media boycott campaigns it's hard to separate the noise from impact on the…

Travis Kalanick resigned because his mother had recently died. The media frenzy was just noise.

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#55

Post by heedlessly2 »

aws_ls wrote: post #43
raiyu wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true that many companies come back from scandal but it really depends on the impact to the bottom line. Chipotle had tremendous negative press years ago from food poisoning issues and hasn't recovered since. Even though the number of instances are in the single digits compared to millions of burritos served on a monthly basis. With social media boycott campaigns it's hard to separate the noise from impact on the…

>With Facebook it will really be about how many people truly delete Facebook Its also about action seeding, for later events. With each strike like this some people leave and its likely they are early(ish) adopters, and also likely that they are opinionated ones (just my theory). So their leaving reduces the quality of the network, for the bulk of passive users. And I know (anecdotally) few passive users. People who…

for Facebook to really die, the users will need to move to something else.

They need to move toward Snapchat in droves or another social media alternative.

MySpace died because of Facebook.

Digg died because of Reddit.

AOL died because of ATT, Verizon, Comcast, TWC/Charter, etc..

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#56

Post by heedlessly2 »

spyspy wrote: post #13
raiyu wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true that many companies come back from scandal but it really depends on the impact to the bottom line. Chipotle had tremendous negative press years ago from food poisoning issues and hasn't recovered since. Even though the number of instances are in the single digits compared to millions of burritos served on a monthly basis. With social media boycott campaigns it's hard to separate the noise from impact on the…

Disclosure: I bought more FB today You covered the fundamental reason why Facebook _could_ suffer from this but I believe it won’t. Uber is very easy to ditch because it has well-known competitors that are just or almost as good and readily available. And uber doesn’t have years of photos, friends and interactions that I’d be losing.

Facebook is good for loosely connecting with acquaintances.

But for real friends, you will always keep in contact no matter the medium.

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#57

Post by deepbreath »

pyjammas wrote: post #48
deepbreath wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The WhatsApp client could still learn your interests from your conversations and request ads related to them from the server.

Isn't all that end-to-end encrypted?

It is, but your own client obviously has access to the conversation (how else would it display it on your screen?). So learning your interests can be done on the client-side, rather than server-side. Then your list of interests is reported to the server.

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#59

Post by panarky »

adventured wrote: post #18
panarky wrote: post #8

Facebook isn't going to disappear, but the company's valuation has fast growth baked in the cake. We're already seeing dramatic deterioration in DAUs and minutes per user. This episode will cause a few users to leave Facebook completely, but many more will use it less. And that deceleration in the growth rate will need to be offset with an acceleration in earnings and cash flow for the stock price to increase from he…

> the company's valuation has fast growth baked in That used to be the case. It's trading at a particularly unusual discount today in fact, on a growth to valuation metric. It's radically superior to Amazon on that front. It's better than Google. And it's dramatically better than Microsoft (which barely has any growth). Facebook is trading for ~23 times likely 2018 earnings. And perhaps 17 or 18 times 2019 earnings.…

It's only cheap if you assume that today's margin and growth rate will continue uninterrupted.

If margins get squeezed, or if growth slows, or both, the valuation is in jeopardy.

The average user spends 43 minutes per day on Facebook. Last quarter, users spent 2 minutes less per day.

What happens if Facebook is perceived as mildly toxic to many users?

Just like people used to drink gallons of carbonated high-fructose corn syrup every week, almost overnight most people decided that's not healthy, and soda sales have declined every year for 12 years straight.

What if something similar happens to Facebook? If a year from now people are spending 25 minutes a day instead of 40, what happens to the margins and growth rate that justify a $500B valuation?

Re: Facebook lost more than Tesla's market cap

#60

Post by aws_ls »

heedlessly2 wrote: post #55
aws_ls wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>With Facebook it will really be about how many people truly delete Facebook Its also about action seeding, for later events. With each strike like this some people leave and its likely they are early(ish) adopters, and also likely that they are opinionated ones (just my theory). So their leaving reduces the quality of the network, for the bulk of passive users. And I know (anecdotally) few passive users. People who…

for Facebook to really die, the users will need to move to something else. They need to move toward Snapchat in droves or another social media alternative. MySpace died because of Facebook. Digg died because of Reddit. AOL died because of ATT, Verizon, Comcast, TWC/Charter, etc..

I agree, another option is needed for a previous social network to die. Hope whatever is the next one is a federated one, that works like emails (SMTP) under the hood.
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