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Peak Oil is History

culturechange.org

51–60 of 63 posts

Re: Peak Oil is History

#51
post #50
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are talking about temporary natural catastrophes, though, not the kind of disasters that develop slowly. It's easier to give examples of that which people can readily see. For a "slower" problem, how about the general trend that people are living longer? IIRC, when social security was invented in the US (which you qualify for after age 65), the average life expectancy here was 67. It was intended to make life eas…

I haven't been to India myself, but from what I have heard, maybe you should travel to India. The problems you mention are not real problems (yet). Also I said "squalor", not "poverty". By that I mean no clean water to drink, no sanitation, no access to physicians and stuff like that. Hint: the US is not the world (no offense). Edit: I agree that we constantly solve problems, too (or the Scientists do). But we don't…

It's a study I have been quoting a long time, so I don't doubt it no longer reflects conditions in India. My only point was perceptions of poverty change and can be very subjective.

Historically, wine and beer were drunk in Europe because you could not drink the water. It was not clean. The expectation that everyone "should" have clean water is a relatively new concept. Would I like everyone to have clean water? Sure. But I don't think the lack of clean water for many people somehow magically wipes out the value of other gains.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#52
post #33
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your rant doesn't mention that benign-sounding "separate development and rule for all ethnic and cultural groups" under Apartheid forced blacks onto 13% of the land, even though they formed by far the largest population group in South Africa. Nor does it mention the fact that generations of blacks were forced by state policy into inferior "Bantu Education". Nor does it mention the fact that the migrant labour system,…

Look here, I am not in support of Apartheid (or the current system for that matter). The fact is that Apartheid could not work (for a multitude of reasons, including economic reasons). But a lot of attacks on Apartheid ignore the basic facts and do not perform a simple statistical comparison with the NSA. > "separate development and rule for all ethnic and cultural groups" under Apartheid forced blacks onto 13% of th…

Regarding the consolidation of universities, I wouldn't take Zuma too seriously (I have to wonder he was motivated to say that by individuals who lost power through the consolidations, and in any case Zuma was in Cabinet and didn't voice any objections at the time). There was a lot amount of duplication between racially segregated institutions, and cutting administration costs is a good idea. The merging of teacher training colleges into universities may be more problematic, but overall, in South Africa, the less institutions, the less chance for waste and looting. I also have to wonder how good the teachers produced by those colleges really were.

>Bantu education was inferior, that is a fact. But it is a >question of resources. ... >White people almost exclusively pay taxation (as is still >more or less true today).

Hendrik Verwoerd's comments about Bantu education clearly indicate, that it was about more than resource constraints http://africanhistory.about.com/od/apartheid/qt/ApartheidQts... Per capita spending on education for black children was 10% of that on white children. I do agree the Outcomes Based Education (introduced by Asmal's predecessor, if I recall correctly), has been a tragic waste.

The idea that blacks didn't contribute to the tax base, and were not therefore entitled to its benefits is absurd. They were systematically excluded from economic opportunity, so they couldn't contribute, even if they wanted to (and they have always payed sales taxes).

>Migration is a natural cause of South Africa’s >industrialization. The population is still rural and >development is in the cities.

Migration and the migrant labour system are two very different things. The Apartheid ideal was black men in hostels, black women and children in Bantustans.

The rural industrial development was worthy, and it is regrettable that it has been abandoned, but one has to question the sustainability of those developments. Their motive, like much development in apartheid South Africa, was to further racial segregation by keeping the races apart. If they had provided job opportunities close to major economic centres, those jobs might have proved to be sustainable.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#53
post #51
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't been to India myself, but from what I have heard, maybe you should travel to India. The problems you mention are not real problems (yet). Also I said "squalor", not "poverty". By that I mean no clean water to drink, no sanitation, no access to physicians and stuff like that. Hint: the US is not the world (no offense). Edit: I agree that we constantly solve problems, too (or the Scientists do). But we don't…

It's a study I have been quoting a long time, so I don't doubt it no longer reflects conditions in India. My only point was perceptions of poverty change and can be very subjective. Historically, wine and beer were drunk in Europe because you could not drink the water. It was not clean. The expectation that everyone "should" have clean water is a relatively new concept. Would I like everyone to have clean water? Sure…

I think we are talking about different things. What I mean is: there are people living in squalor right now. Therefore it follows that "we" do not automatically always find a solution if people live in squalor. Therefore "resourcefulness will solve all our problems" has been refuted in my opinion.

I know that the definition of poverty is subjective, hence my use of the term squalor. In my country (Germany) poverty is defined as having less than a percentage of the average income. So most people "below the poverty line" are actually rich - they have health insurance and everything. It is indeed rather meaningless to use the term "poverty" in that way.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#54
post #53
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a study I have been quoting a long time, so I don't doubt it no longer reflects conditions in India. My only point was perceptions of poverty change and can be very subjective. Historically, wine and beer were drunk in Europe because you could not drink the water. It was not clean. The expectation that everyone "should" have clean water is a relatively new concept. Would I like everyone to have clean water? Sure…

I think we are talking about different things. What I mean is: there are people living in squalor right now. Therefore it follows that "we" do not automatically always find a solution if people live in squalor. Therefore "resourcefulness will solve all our problems" has been refuted in my opinion. I know that the definition of poverty is subjective, hence my use of the term squalor. In my country (Germany) poverty is…

Must be a misunderstanding. As I said:

I've been talking about Peak Oil for years. I think it is a serious issue. But I'm an optimist and I think we can adapt. It doesn't have to be some nightmare scenario. It will only turn into that if we engage in too much denial and foot dragging and resistance to change.

Can doesn't mean will. I imagine lots of Americans will drag their feet and only embrace change when a gun is to their head on this issue. But I will not and I hope others can be encouraged to be more proactive as well.

Thanks.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#56
post #52
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look here, I am not in support of Apartheid (or the current system for that matter). The fact is that Apartheid could not work (for a multitude of reasons, including economic reasons). But a lot of attacks on Apartheid ignore the basic facts and do not perform a simple statistical comparison with the NSA. > "separate development and rule for all ethnic and cultural groups" under Apartheid forced blacks onto 13% of th…

Regarding the consolidation of universities, I wouldn't take Zuma too seriously (I have to wonder he was motivated to say that by individuals who lost power through the consolidations, and in any case Zuma was in Cabinet and didn't voice any objections at the time). There was a lot amount of duplication between racially segregated institutions, and cutting administration costs is a good idea. The merging of teacher t…

> There was a lot amount of duplication between racially segregated institutions, and cutting administration costs is a good idea.

Yeah, closing them down isn’t such a good idea. You know that most universities which merged basically closed down their “satellite” campuses in black areas? This simply serves to keep away affordable education from black people.

> The merging of teacher training colleges into universities may be more problematic, but overall, in South Africa, the less institutions, the less chance for waste and looting.

Most teacher colleges weren’t merged, they were simply closed down. Note that waste and looting wasn’t such a big problem before, why is it now?

By the way, you know what is one reason why they were closed down? Provincial governments became extremely corrupt (the funding for colleges came from provincial governments). They simply closed it down to ensure more money for looting.

> I also have to wonder how good the teachers produced by those colleges really were.

Look, they were not the best teachers in the world. But the problem is that we do not need the best teachers in the world, we need a lot of teachers. A good teacher in a class of 40 doesn’t help a thing. Also, the idea of removing teacher diplomas ensures that there are even less teachers (teacher training courses at universities is now 1 year longer).

South Africa loses some 12, 000 teachers a year (6, 000 produced by universities but 18,000 lost due to retirement and immigration). It is a disaster waiting to happen.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&...

> Hendrik Verwoerd's comments about Bantu education clearly indicate,

Hendrik Verwoerd was not the be all and end all of the NP government. You know that many of the policies changed after him? In any case, I do not care what someone has said (or what the motives were) but what happens on the ground.

> Migration and the migrant labour system are two very different things. The Apartheid ideal was black men in hostels, black women and children in Bantustans.

Can you give a citation for that? During Apartheid, there were a lot more industries closer to the living area of black people. The industrial zones (of which there were numerous) are an example of that.

Today the economic activity near large centres of black population is a lot lower. The economic outlook in rural areas also forces people to become migrant labourers.

> that it has been abandoned, but one has to question the sustainability of those developments.

Whatever the motive, those developments worked.

> If they had provided job opportunities close to major economic centres, those jobs might have proved to be sustainable.

There are many reasons why those businesses moved (from high crime to non-functioning municipalities). The fact of the matter is that work and businesses are now far from where many employees work. So they have to rely on non-existent transport (such as taxis or horrible metro lines) each day to commute 30km+.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#57
post #26
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"become economical far before petroleum is totally gone" What does that even mean, though? If oil was gone today, dragging things by hand or with horses would become economical, too. That doesn't imply that it would afford us the same luxurious lifestyle we enjoy today (luxury == not having to drag stuff around by hand, among other things).

Sasol, the world's largest coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL) producer, has stated that GTL becomes financially viable at $10-$20 a barrel while CTL reaches the same level at $50-$60 a barrel. So with the current price of oil at over $70, it's reasonable to assume that CTL, supplemented by GTL, could maintain prices at close to current levels.

The Game Changer is the recent successful combination of the two processes by a small Australian company, Linc Energy, that has lead to previously stranded coal, either too deep or too remote to mine economically, being now both economically viable and environmentally friendly for energy extraction, with one ton of coal producing between 1.5 - 2 barrels of oil equivalent.

LINC Energy ASX:LNC an underground coal gasification company that has demonstrated that coal can be burnt underground and the resultant gas, SYNGAS, can be converted to a range of ultra-clean liquid fuel products including diesel and kerosene. The process is named UCG-GTL meaning Underground Coal Gasification Gas to Liquids. Both technologies have a long and successful history. LNC's UCG project has been running for 10 years and its UCG-GTL project for 3 years.

Linc Energy have several billion tons of UCG suitable coal (Arckaringa, South Australia) and a suite of projects around the world. Moreover LNC's Arckaringa coal is both deep and in a dry arid region of Australia far away from agriculture.

Linc Energy is currently developing a cookie cutter design for UCG-GTL plants designed to produce 20,000 B.O.E per day and is currently building a 20,000 BOE per day plant in South Australia.

Another exciting, much lesser known, emerging UCG play is Central Petroleum ASX: CTP who have around a trillion tons of proven UCG suitable coal in the even more remote, dry and arid and very sparsely populated Perdika Region that just happens to have a railway line stretching from Adelaide to Darwin nearby. The railway gives them access to S E Asia via the Port of Darwin and the Australian domestic market via Adelaide. CTP have a long term interest in both UCG and above ground coal gasification and the conversion of the resultant Syngas to liquid fuels and fertilizers.

While LINC has a respectable market cap of $890m and a lot of cash, Central Petroleum has over a trillion tons of coal, approx. 250,000 sq kms of unexplored coal and oil prospective basins across central Australia and a market cap of just on $58m and about $20m cash making CTP one of Australia's best speculative investments.

If LNC and CTP were to team up Australia would rapidly become both a major oil exporter and liquid fuel independent.

(I hold LNC and CTP)

For more information about UCG and GTL please see www.ucg-gtl.com.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#58
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking back at some of the things our grand parents expected us to have now, I would have to say predicting a lean green future seems a little foolish.

the slight difference is that both oil and coal will eventually run out and there will have to be a way to replace them - or make them.

Yes, but that does not mean it will be cleaner than, or even as clean as what we have now.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#59
post #56
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding the consolidation of universities, I wouldn't take Zuma too seriously (I have to wonder he was motivated to say that by individuals who lost power through the consolidations, and in any case Zuma was in Cabinet and didn't voice any objections at the time). There was a lot amount of duplication between racially segregated institutions, and cutting administration costs is a good idea. The merging of teacher t…

> There was a lot amount of duplication between racially segregated institutions, and cutting administration costs is a good idea. Yeah, closing them down isn’t such a good idea. You know that most universities which merged basically closed down their “satellite” campuses in black areas? This simply serves to keep away affordable education from black people. > The merging of teacher training colleges into universitie…

>But the problem is that we do not need the best teachers in the world, we need a lot of teachers. A good teacher in a class of 40 doesn’t help a thing.

The conventional wisdom on class sizes is being challenged currently.

>Hendrik Verwoerd was not the be all and end all of the NP government. You know that many of the policies changed after him?

In the 1970's, well after Verwoerd's demise, a black child's education got 10% of the funding given to a white child.

>There are many reasons why those businesses moved (from high crime to non-functioning municipalities). The fact of the matter is that work and businesses are now far from where many employees work. So they have to rely on non-existent transport (such as taxis or horrible metro lines) each day to commute 30km+.

This is a rather strange argument. The reason why blacks, Indians and Coloureds have historically lived so far from their workplaces is that the apartheid government (literally) forced them out of urban centres and onto the periphery of urban areas.

Transport infrastructure was neglected for 20 years, starting in the 1980's, and continuing under Mandela and much of Mbeki's tenure. The taxi industry/mafia was deregulated in the late 80's by the apartheid government. Car-centric urban sprawl also first took hold under the apartheid government (even today, mass transit between the black areas of Soweto and white-flight Sandton, established in the late 70's is nonexistent).

If the Apartheid economic model of decentralised and seperate development was so worthwhile, why was did that government have to run up massive deficits to support the system? Communist countries also enjoyed low unemployment, just as Apartheid South Africa did, thanks to similarly massive misallocations of resources, and coercion, in pursuit of a failed ideology.

Apartheid was declared a Crime against Humanity, with good reason. The only place where pro-apartheid revisionism gets much currency is in obscure corners of the internet.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#60
post #59
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was a lot amount of duplication between racially segregated institutions, and cutting administration costs is a good idea. Yeah, closing them down isn’t such a good idea. You know that most universities which merged basically closed down their “satellite” campuses in black areas? This simply serves to keep away affordable education from black people. > The merging of teacher training colleges into universitie…

>But the problem is that we do not need the best teachers in the world, we need a lot of teachers. A good teacher in a class of 40 doesn’t help a thing. The conventional wisdom on class sizes is being challenged currently. >Hendrik Verwoerd was not the be all and end all of the NP government. You know that many of the policies changed after him? In the 1970's, well after Verwoerd's demise, a black child's education g…

> The conventional wisdom on class sizes is being challenged currently.

This is a statement without any meaning. Yeah, large class sizes with 800 students is OK in college.

But it is a huge as difference between primary schools and secondary schools where children need more individual attention. How will a teacher check that each child writes properly, or get a chance to speak? I’ve been learning a foreign language recently and I found a class of 14 people too big. Imagine being a poor black kid in a class of 80 trying to learn English or another language?

You know that some rural schools have a ratio of 1 to 80? These are the kids that need more attention than any other student. Yet they do not get it.

You are right that in some sectors of education the idea of class sizes are irrelevant – notably college kids or self-motivated students (a very small percentage). This is not what you will find in your typical overfull and run down rural school.

> The reason why blacks, Indians and Coloureds have historically lived so far from their workplaces is that the apartheid government (literally) forced them out of urban centres and onto the periphery of urban areas.

The reason why most black people historically lived far from business centres was because they were spread around the country (This was the same for white Afrikaans people in the beginning of the century).

At least in Gauteng, business centers arose around mining sites and are unnaturally densely packed around this. By the way, look at groups such as Venda’s, N. Sothos, etc… They were historically far from business centers, not because they were moved there by the Apartheid government, but because there was not big industrial development in the area that they historically lived (such as a town which grew from mining roots).

> Transport infrastructure was neglected for 20 years, starting in the 1980's, and continuing under Mandela and much of Mbeki's tenure.

Again, this is debatable. Quality of roads in rural areas rapidly declined in the last 15 years. This is mostly due to the fact that the provincial governments and local governments lost almost all capacity to function (again, this is truer for rural areas).

> Car-centric urban sprawl also first took hold under the apartheid government (even today, mass transit between the black areas of Soweto and white-flight Sandton, established in the late 70's is nonexistent).

South Africa will always be a car based country as far as passengers go. We simply do not have the high densities needed to form passenger rail networks.

It is however interesting to note that freight rail has almost completely declined in South Africa with most freight transport occurring with trucks (increasing danger). The South African rail company (Transnet) is also a corrupt ANC cadre cesspool.

> why was did that government have to run up massive deficits to support the system?

The Apartheid government did not have to run up massive deficits to support that system. The deficits were created by defence spending (which was in the 80ies around 10% of GDP) and things such as sanctions.

> Communist countries also enjoyed low unemployment, just as Apartheid South Africa did, thanks to similarly massive misallocations of resources, and coercion, in pursuit of a failed ideology.

Yet, in 1994 SA’s economy was 50% the size of the whole sub-Sahara Africa’s economy. Whilst many of those countries followed a Marxist ideology, SA still remains the only industrialised country on the continent.

> The only place where pro-apartheid revisionism gets much currency is in obscure corners of the internet.

Look. Your argument is now “something is bad because someone said so”. I said at the beginning of this post that I do not see Apartheid as good, but I do not see the new government as good (Majority democracy failed horribly in South Africa). Or do you describe a government that presides over a 15 year drop in life expectancy as “good”?

I also do not care about moralizing. As an example, Singapore was ruled by a dictator and the PAP political party ever since it existed. They are generally condemned by people who take the (western) moral outlook and whatnot. Yet it is one of the most developed countries in the world with a higher standard of living than any of its more politically correct neighbours. When cold and hard statistics and facts are used, Singapore is one of the best governed countries in the world – and much better developed than its neighbours.

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