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The Role of Luck in Life Success

blogs.scientificamerican.com

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Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#51

Post by neveroffensive »

anonemouse145 wrote: post #15
elnygren wrote: post #2

You can only get lucky if you position yourself to be able to get lucky. In addition, you need that carpe diem attitude to exploit any lucky breaks. A business opportunity is not gonna magically appear if you are not constantly looking for one and you won’t be able to exploit it if you haven’t learned relevant skills and built a network.

How did you choose who your parents were going to be? What part of your carpe diem attitude helped your mom not do drugs and destroy your gestating brain before you were born? How did you bootstrap your country so that you weren't a victim of war or starvation at a young age? What part of your attitude ensured you were born into a modern society at the right time to be educated, instead of being a pre-agrarian human…

You've brought up a lot of seemingly good points, but I feel you've conflated a lot of things here.

First, I think we need to shift the discussion back to the first world. That was what the article was written about. Third world issues are outside the scope of the discussion. At least in the context of the comment you are replying to. Success is going to mean something different when you're country literally doesn't have food. No one is arguing starving children in Bangladesh should be able to be the next CEO of Google.

Second, I think you overestimate the extent to which issues like, "mom doing drugs" effect the general population in the first world. I would argue that the majority of unsuccessful people in the first world have not been effected by anything worse than the standard issues which arise from being raised in an impoverished/educationally lacking family environment.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#52

Post by mtgex »

antisthenes wrote: post #47
mtgex wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't position yourself to be born a white male, which I believe affords the greatest advantages, and opens the most opportunities of any personal attribute you can have.

Stop trying to make it a race and gender issue. It helps no one but the rentier class to further divide the people they are extracting profit from. What wealth 'class' you are born into has by far the biggest effect on your chance of success.

But it is a race and gender issue. I'm not trying to divide people, just stating facts.

Attaining wealth is much easier if you're born into a specific race, thus your chances of being born wealthy are directly correlated with your chances of being white.

Attaining wealth is much easier if you're male. Among the many reasons are increased career opportunities in general, less chance of a stalled career because of child rearing, greater status in negotiations, etc.

All I'm saying is it is incredibly lucky to be born a white male in a society which so highly values them, and try as hard you might, you can't position yourself to get that advantage if you weren't born with it.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#53

Post by jandrese »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #31
cdancette wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if you have enough resources to continue.

1. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 3. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 4. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 5. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 6. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> success!

Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail

Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail

Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> starve to death

You see this with people who always have some scheme in the pipeline and may have even had some modest success (and notoriety) with one of the schemes, but ends up dying alone and penniless anyway. They do the work, but never get the break. The world is just unfair sometimes.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#54

Post by eric_b »

downandout wrote: post #43

One point of contention I have with this article is that it mentions that many CEOs were born during certain months and have names starting with certain letters. The mere mention of the phrase I am about to use always draws the ire of the HN crowd, but I see a big correlation/causation issue with that specific data point. As for the larger point of the article, I always frame this conversation in this way: if you wer…

I totally agree with you, but I'd add one additional thought. While being born in a first world country is a huge leg up - I think it assumes you're raised by a competent single parent or reasonably competent parents.

Having parents who understand hard work (and can show you what it looks like) and good financial habits makes it easier for you to develop those same traits as an adult, in my experience.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#55

Post by juanmirocks »

And then the problem is that we are biased to believe that the winners did almost everything right, and the losers did almost everything wrong. Often is chance.

Having said that, those who persevere, by definition are more likely to succeed. They have more changes.

"The harder I work, the luckier I get".

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#56

Post by ixtli »

caymanjim wrote: post #32
axiom92 wrote: post #3

I've at times stated that anyone who says that luck isn't important has possibly never had any success in life. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in any pursuit. Hard work shrinks the error bars in the distribution of success but doesn't make them disappear.

Anecdotally, I've found the opposite. The most successful people ascribe their success to their own hard work first and foremost, discounting all the benefits that luck has brought them, most especially the accident of their birth (rich country, rich parents, race, gender, date, etc.). On the other end of the spectrum, those who are less successful tend to blame all their failures on bad luck and discount their own c…

I agree that the mistake of discounting the important role luck plays in success doesn't seem to know class bounds.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#57

Post by panopticon »

caymanjim wrote: post #32
axiom92 wrote: post #3

I've at times stated that anyone who says that luck isn't important has possibly never had any success in life. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in any pursuit. Hard work shrinks the error bars in the distribution of success but doesn't make them disappear.

Anecdotally, I've found the opposite. The most successful people ascribe their success to their own hard work first and foremost, discounting all the benefits that luck has brought them, most especially the accident of their birth (rich country, rich parents, race, gender, date, etc.). On the other end of the spectrum, those who are less successful tend to blame all their failures on bad luck and discount their own c…

My anecdotal evidence also agrees with yours.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#58

Post by PsylentKnight »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #31
cdancette wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if you have enough resources to continue.

1. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 3. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 4. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 5. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 6. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> success!

Being fortunate to have a die to roll with is a form of luck. Over 10% of the world lives on less than $1.90 a day, and there's no way out - it's not a matter of determination.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#59

Post by downandout »

eric_b wrote: post #54
downandout wrote: post #43

One point of contention I have with this article is that it mentions that many CEOs were born during certain months and have names starting with certain letters. The mere mention of the phrase I am about to use always draws the ire of the HN crowd, but I see a big correlation/causation issue with that specific data point. As for the larger point of the article, I always frame this conversation in this way: if you wer…

I totally agree with you, but I'd add one additional thought. While being born in a first world country is a huge leg up - I think it assumes you're raised by a competent single parent or reasonably competent parent s . Having parents who understand hard work (and can show you what it looks like) and good financial habits makes it easier for you to develop those same traits as an adult, in my experience.

You’re certainly correct. That isn’t to say that people raised in less fortunate circumstances can’t learn good financial habits (and to make good life choices, for that matter). But you are correct that those who are raised by competent parent(s) definitely have an advantage over those who weren’t.
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