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Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

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Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#51

Post by jakeogh »

zipwitch wrote: post #36
brentm wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point believing or not believing in climate change is analogous to religion. I have trouble believing any facts or data would swing a significant portion of either side of the debate. Denying climate change is easy. We're not going to see places like New York City move swiftly underwater and the problem is so abstract it's easy to call BS. Short of Trump changing his mind and using his super power of convinci…

Climate change denialism has more in common with Flat Earth Theory than religion of any stripe. (Which makes so many Americans buying into it all the more frighting.)

"Flat Earth" is not about convincing normal people Earth is flat. Sure you get a few that genuinely believe it because they lack the skills to evaluate evidence, but that's not the point. By using it, you have "fallen" for it's utility. It's a common theme if you study disinformation.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#52

Post by skywhopper »

vixen99 wrote: post #25
discoursism wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know global warming is happening because of this news article. This news article worries me because I know global warming is happening.

How does the 'I know' bit advance the discussion?

At some point, it's silly to expect every comment to make a full and comprehensive argument. Like how I can worry about something falling from the sky because "I know" gravity exists. So when I see something straight above your head growing larger coming straight towards you as it falls, I know it will not change course, and I don't feel the need to explain general relativity to you before I suggest you ought to get out of the way.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#53

Post by toasterlovin »

JohnTHaller wrote: post #39
52-6F-62 wrote: post #2

Anecdotal: Here in Toronto, it's been 16˚C this past week. In February. We've had about 2 or 3 real snowfalls that stuck around for a few days before melting. As somebody who loves ice skating outside, it's really frustrating. And I love the snow. Every year it seems like the winter gets a little milder...

Anecdotal: 3 days ago it hit 78˚F/25.6˚C here in NYC, the hottest ever recorded for Feb 21 and ever recorded for all of Feb. The previous record for Feb 21 was 68˚F/20˚C in 1930. The previous hottest day in all of February was 75˚F/23.9˚C in 1985. The average high temp for NYC in Feb is usually 44˚F/6.7˚C. This year it's 49˚F/9.4˚C.

FWIW, a 30 year gap between record highs is not supportive of global warming. Global warming should be making record weather events more common, which would imply records being broken in rapid succession.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#55

Post by pharrington »

pedalpete wrote: post #44
meri_dian wrote: post #30

Warmer temperatures will mean we may need to change where we farm our food and move some cities but it's much better than things getting colder. It may even be better than the current climate, given it may actually increase the amount of land where food is arable.

Though I don't "welcome global warming", I think this is a good point of debate. The comparison to "getting colder" isn't really valid, as it is not the only option. Most people would like things to stay the same. Perhaps we should be looking at what temperature would be the most beneficial to the planet as a whole. If we were to create a new earth, what would be the ideal temperature, how would we manage it, where i…

Since human cognition is based from previous cognitive state and interpretation of sensory input, precise communication requires mapping the communicative symbols as closely as possible to your desired semantics.

Earth itself will do just fine at any temperature that's below literally evaporating. Various life on this planet has evolved to thrive in wildly disparate climates, and short of complete eradication of an ecosystem, surviving organisms both tend towards better suitability for their given environment and adapt their environment towards better suitability for them (both with limits). We humans should be looking at what temperature ranges would be the most beneficial to human society as a whole. Sure, that's incredibly self biased, but as a human, I contend that's an incredibly useful bias to have.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#56

Post by bromuro »

briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

We are talking about average values with an high degree of deviation - so it is normal the values to be out of the average (“normality” never happens in meteorology).

The problem is how much and how often this happens: global warning is very likely to be caused by human activity.

Future looks ugly, everybody is (maybe unconsciously) afraid and at fault. And instead of looking for a solution I use my brain 40 hours/week to solve useless problems. Those who have also money send cars in the space. What could go wrong.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#57

Post by mirimir »

loverofthings wrote: post #43
brentm wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point believing or not believing in climate change is analogous to religion. I have trouble believing any facts or data would swing a significant portion of either side of the debate. Denying climate change is easy. We're not going to see places like New York City move swiftly underwater and the problem is so abstract it's easy to call BS. Short of Trump changing his mind and using his super power of convinci…

In similar ways, majority of people that believe in climate change do nothing (or barely anything) to fight it. No one is reducing their heating/cooling, no one is changing their diet, no one is measuring their heating patterns and trying to optimize it (by no one I mean barely anyone). People still want their 24/7 AC, their steaks, their huge cars, their big heat inefficient houses, their plane flights etc. No one d…

That's not true. Many people in "developed" countries reduce their energy use, and their use of energy-intensive products, in order to help reduce climate forcing. And they've done so for decades.

However, it is true that too few people in "developed" countries do that. And it's also true that too many people in "less-developed" countries lust after energy-intensive lifestyles. So overall, its unlikely that overall climate forcing will decrease. Unless solar energy and battery usage take off exponentially enough.

Even worse, there's already enough CO2 in the atmosphere to drive substantial climate change. And the poles are warming fast enough to drive substantial CO2 and CH4 outgassing from melting permafrost.

So maybe it's just too late. And so maybe the rational option for those alive now is to party hearty. Russia and China probably like that path.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#58

Post by martinpw »

toasterlovin wrote: post #53
JohnTHaller wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotal: 3 days ago it hit 78˚F/25.6˚C here in NYC, the hottest ever recorded for Feb 21 and ever recorded for all of Feb. The previous record for Feb 21 was 68˚F/20˚C in 1930. The previous hottest day in all of February was 75˚F/23.9˚C in 1985. The average high temp for NYC in Feb is usually 44˚F/6.7˚C. This year it's 49˚F/9.4˚C.

FWIW, a 30 year gap between record highs is not supportive of global warming. Global warming should be making record weather events more common, which would imply records being broken in rapid succession.

> Global warming should be making record weather events more common

Not necessarily. If there was no long term warming trend, records would become less common over time, since they would be weather-related random values and there are more previous year data points to compare against. A warming trend would act counter to that effect, but not necessarily overcome it.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#59

Post by gilbetron »

poster123 wrote: post #42

Doesn't warming of the coldest parts of the world mean there will be more usable land? I have read that global warming could have benefits for countries such as Russia.

We have plenty of "usable" land - valuable land is another matter, and the land that will be revealed isn't particularly valuable, at least not for decades, if not centuries. Furthermore, the melting itself will cause immense damage both by raising water levels and releasing all the crap (methane, primarily) that's in it.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#60

Post by analogic »

bromuro wrote: post #56
briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

We are talking about average values with an high degree of deviation - so it is normal the values to be out of the average (“normality” never happens in meteorology). The problem is how much and how often this happens: global warning is very likely to be caused by human activity. Future looks ugly, everybody is (maybe unconsciously) afraid and at fault. And instead of looking for a solution I use my brain 40 hours/we…

Solution easy, just get all countries in the world to agree to stop burning fossil fuels now whatever the cost. Then just have to tell all the poor people in [poor country] that they can't live like we do because we got there first and messed it all up.

We're all sure gonna be kicking ourselves after it all goes Mad Max. Completely avoidable, yet all but inevitable with no off-switch in sight in the real world.

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