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Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

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Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#51

Post by simonh »

atomical wrote: post #38
codingdave wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then? Yes. Then, we had world leaders whose philosophies and policies almost led to war, but who personally didn't really want to go there. Now we have a couple world leaders who don't seem to grasp the significance of their fights, and are just driving their decisions with their own egos.

CIA says Kim Jong Un is still a rational actor.

He may well be, but consider three things. One, what is the chance that North Korea might undergo a political crisis, precipitated by either internal or external events during his lifetime? Secondly, is there anything he would not do or threaten to do in order to avert that? Finally, to our knowledge there have been several technical errors or accidents that came close to detonating or launching nuclear weapons, both in the US and in Russia. What are the chances that North Korea's technical and procedural controls are better than both, and does his behaviour increase or decrease the associated risks?

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#52

Post by labster »

mLuby wrote: post #34
ModernMech wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've actually moved it backward several times: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock#/media/File:Doo...

Yeah I know (thanks for the link). I mean using a clock as the way to communicate how likely nuclear war is happens to be a terrible way of communicating to a public that knows clocks only, and naturally, move forward. Having seen a clock and reading this news, it would be reasonable for children to expect us to reach nuclear war very soon, which is not at all accurate.

It's pretty accurate. Presidents of two countries have been declaring that they will use nuclear weapons against the other. They have been provoking each other, and each interprets the provocation as an act of war. It's pretty bad. The only reason no one is reacting is because there's nothing we can do. Might as well live your life while there's still time, and hope rationality will win out.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#53

Post by meee »

codingdave wrote: post #19
PopePompous wrote: post #11

It's depressing to see adults participate in such a stupid publicity stunt. Their silly clock was at 7 minutes to midnight during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then?

> Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then? Yes. Then, we had world leaders whose philosophies and policies almost led to war, but who personally didn't really want to go there. Now we have a couple world leaders who don't seem to grasp the significance of their fights, and are just driving their decisions with their own egos.

Maybe that was the conventional wisdom at the time. Later we found out that wasn’t as true as we would hope. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUfBc4qQMg The movie this clip is from and the companion book are much more detailed about the realities of the time and the though processes of those world leaders.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#54

Post by tudorw »

bllguo wrote: post #50
jMyles wrote: post #35

Stories like this are the reason that I think that the following headline format is rightly banned from HN in the future: "Scientists ." Nobody cares that "scientists" did something. We care about the science of what they did, sure. But this is a built-in appeal to authority that seems completely anti-hacker to me.

The doomsday clock is somewhat silly, but I disagree in general. I think "appeal to authority" fallacy is misunderstood. How is it illogical to listen to qualified authorities? It only breaks when one uses authority in one field to claim credibility in something else.

surely 'failing to appeal to authority' would be anti-hacker, any elegantly hacked solution would appeal to authority while simultaneously undertaking pro-hacker activity in order to legitimise and make maximum impact with your actions, I would rather consider these scientists who have taken their time to bring something important to our attention as media hackers, and the fact we are discussing them tells me their fu is prime.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#55

Post by tambienben »

iamcasen wrote: post #45
tambienben wrote: post #13

>The group also cited concerns over public distrust of political leaders and the media, saying it is drawing away from the focus on real threats. So... depending on how they meant to word that, are they seriously wagging their finger at the public for not blindly falling in line behind this unprecedented, petty shit-show? That's an impressive amount of hubris.

No, I believe they are trying to say that rule of law is breaking down, and the fabric of our society is at stake.

It still sounds as though they accuse the public for this, though. I can't abide that.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#56

Post by baq »

atomical wrote: post #38
codingdave wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then? Yes. Then, we had world leaders whose philosophies and policies almost led to war, but who personally didn't really want to go there. Now we have a couple world leaders who don't seem to grasp the significance of their fights, and are just driving their decisions with their own egos.

CIA says Kim Jong Un is still a rational actor.

Sitting behind the wheel of a country where crystal meth is easier to get than food.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#57

Post by 13of40 »

DubiousPusher wrote: post #15
PopePompous wrote: post #11

It's depressing to see adults participate in such a stupid publicity stunt. Their silly clock was at 7 minutes to midnight during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then?

I'd say no one knows and that's kind of what really makes the clock ridiculous. It's a symbolic representation of one group of people's guess at an unknowable.

Not only that, the metaphor doesn't make sense. If we were at 2 minutes to midnight 1953, either we're dead now or the clock doesn't work like a clock. It should be the doomsday pressure gauge.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#58

Post by Thriptic »

tambienben wrote: post #55
iamcasen wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I believe they are trying to say that rule of law is breaking down, and the fabric of our society is at stake.

It still sounds as though they accuse the public for this, though. I can't abide that.

Well, it is the public who elected the leaders, the public who chooses the advice of biased talking heads while disregarding those with legitimate domain expertise, and the public that is unwilling to engage in real debate between factions and engage in independent critical thought. So yes, it is the public's fault.

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#59

Post by jMyles »

bllguo wrote: post #50
jMyles wrote: post #35

Stories like this are the reason that I think that the following headline format is rightly banned from HN in the future: "Scientists ." Nobody cares that "scientists" did something. We care about the science of what they did, sure. But this is a built-in appeal to authority that seems completely anti-hacker to me.

The doomsday clock is somewhat silly, but I disagree in general. I think "appeal to authority" fallacy is misunderstood. How is it illogical to listen to qualified authorities? It only breaks when one uses authority in one field to claim credibility in something else.

I didn't mean to suggest that it's illogical to listen to qualified authorities.

I don't think that qualified authorities need to be introduced with "scientists ."

Re: Scientists move Doomsday Clock ahead to 2 minutes to midnight

#60

Post by kbutler »

codingdave wrote: post #19
PopePompous wrote: post #11

It's depressing to see adults participate in such a stupid publicity stunt. Their silly clock was at 7 minutes to midnight during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then?

> Does anyone think we're in a more dangerous moment now than we were then? Yes. Then, we had world leaders whose philosophies and policies almost led to war, but who personally didn't really want to go there. Now we have a couple world leaders who don't seem to grasp the significance of their fights, and are just driving their decisions with their own egos.

“A statesman is a politician who’s been dead ten or fifteen years.” - Harry S. Truman

This "warmongering" was the rationale for advancing the clock dramatically under Reagan, but Reagan's policies led to the collapse of the soviet union, so two years after Reagan's term, the clock was moved to its safest ever levels (17 minutes to midnight).

https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/the-doomsday-c...

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