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ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

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Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#51

Post by DamnYuppie »

exelius wrote: post #43
kodablah wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not believe so as I believe the issues are orthogonal. The livelihood of the sport is primarily driven by consumption not production IMO. You lose eyeballs, you lose everything. You lose players, more will fill their place and while the quality may decline, it will not be noticeable since it applies evenly. Everyone knows the NFL could reduce injuries even more, but not at the cost of eyeballs. In a purely capit…

Let's say you take the NFL's revenue and it drops by 90% (as I think it will relatively quickly once "TV" ad rates start to come in line with online video -- oh yes, all these issues are related). So the salary range would have to shift to say, $2-3M a year for the top stars and about $200,000 for vets; with rookies making $50k-ish. Sure there would be endorsements, but it wouldn't be the ubiquitous stardom. You're j…

I don't disagree with your assessment on the impact of a reduction in ad spend. Yet I don't agree that how much a player makes impacts the popularity of football. All you have to do is look at college football where the overwhelming majority of athletes are just getting a scholarship. Most fans support a jersey not the person in it.

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#52

Post by enraged_camel »

exabrial wrote: post #45

Once the NFL became political, a lot of hardcore fans stopped using it as an escape from the madness ever present in the news and social media. Seeing falling revenues doesn't surprise me. The irony of my comment is I'm making plans to watch KC vs Denver... and it's Monday.

>>Once the NFL became political

The numbers have been decreasing for the past 6 years. It has nothing to do with NFL becoming political.

http://www.businessinsider.com/espn-losing-subscribers-not-r...

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#53

Post by ZoeZoeBee »

disease wrote: post #42
brian-armstrong wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm always a little shocked when people admit outrage over kneeling players but don't seem at all concerned that the sport endangers the players' wellbeing. What do you think contributes to this empathy gap?

In the case of many, many people I have met in the Midwest: the answer is racism. These people for some reason can't seem to grasp the simple fact that players are protesting the fact that black people are being shot and killed for either petty crimes or no crimes at all. You certainly don't have to agree with their protest, but not being able to empathize reflects much poorly on you than it does them.

Here we have a glaring example of the issue. You use feelings instead of data to make your point, the problem is your anecdotal assertions are not backed up by reality. 90% of those killed by police were armed.

So far this year 15 African Americans have been killed while unarmed to 21 White Americans and the numbers are similar for the previous years where data is available

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/police-shoo...

[ Edited Below Rate Limited Reply ]

It is about Ratios WillyOnWheels except police aren't killing a bunch of people for no apparent reason, so ratios will never be one to one based on racial data alone.

More than 90% of police homicide victims were armed, the vast majority of them were during the commission of a crime.

Do we want to go over violent crime stats and how that relates to the likelihood you will be killed by police.

It is your half-assed attempt to apply normative statistics to a non-normative issue that shines a light upon your ignorance and all who parrot the same statement without ever delving into the data

Of course the numbers are irrefutable, so down vote away

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#54

Post by kodablah »

eru wrote: post #47
kodablah wrote: post #15

This is going to be one of many reasons there might be a lockout in 2020 when it's CBA renewal time. This is going to trickle down to the players. NFL can't continue charging exorbitant access fees which means they will have to request a serious reduction in the salary cap (the owners aren't going to be willing to eat these losses). I think this is great thing as the economics of large sports salaries have been artif…

Those salary caps are really weird. In 'socialist' Europe, we have no cap on football players pay, and the sky doesn't come down.

Neither does the US in sports like baseball. Nobody said salary caps are the problem, so it wouldn't be the cause of the sky falling. It's about the salary amount, not whether it's capped.

Salary caps are about how your society values parity in whichever sport it is applied to. Regardless of the salary cap argument, do expect this to affect soccer as well, though further into the future. Right now many of those salaries, bumps for league promotion, etc are based on similar revenue sharing based on TV deals. And as US soccer eyeballs have grown, US TV deals have just added dollars to the already existing and new TV deals in soccer. They are on the upswing at the moment (kinda), but as fans get fed up with these draconian viewership requirements they are going to have to fight for the same in-between viewers (i.e. ones that would watch, but don't have to at all costs) that US sports are vying for across new mediums.

I should clarify that it won't affect the top teams in these situations. Man U and Barca and what not will still be fine due to ancillary sales and their brand. Rather it will affect the vast majority of other teams. Some owners are willing to take a hit, but only so much and for so long (except the super rich ones for which their team is their play thing).

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#55

Post by electricEmu »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #25
sunsetMurk wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

curious - are there any reports/#'s out there that indicate attendance is lower than normal? +correlation w/ kneeling players?

The vast majority of NFL tickets are sold before the start of the season so teams are still claiming sellouts, which while technically correct, gives an impression that isn't reflected in actual people in the seats. I'm not sure how the NFL counts attendance but in NCAA football each school decides on what methodology to use. Some don't count hotdog vendors, some count every person inside the stadium, some just estim…

> It wouldn't surprise me if some pro teams massaged their numbers to appear larger than the actual number of fans who show up.

Without any substantiating evidence the opposite wouldn't surprise me either.

Please provide backing evidence that demonstrates the counts are maliciously inflated, at an increased rate, which masks lower turnout.

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#56

Post by schwap »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #16
endtime wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens if the highest bidder can't pay the NFL enough to make it worthwhile? I keep seeing pictures of half-empty stands behind kneeling football players, and ultimately if the NFL destroys its value by alienating too many fans with politics, there's no reason the entire business won't or shouldn't collapse.

Most stadium deals NFL teams have made over the past decade gives the team revenue from all events in the stadium instead just the NFL games. Owners who have been able to get cities and states to agree to these deals can insert other events on the days the team would have played should the sport collapse. The team as a legal entity would live on as an entertainment services provider. Even if the replacement event isn…

Unlike indoor arenas, it doesn't look like this is much of a revenue stream for most football stadiums. For instance, I checked Arrowhead Stadium (Chiefs) has 2 non-football events scheduled in the next year. Heinz Field (Steelers) has 1. Despite being in Nashville, Nissan Stadium (Titans) has 3.

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#57

Post by gozur88 »

enraged_camel wrote: post #52
exabrial wrote: post #45

Once the NFL became political, a lot of hardcore fans stopped using it as an escape from the madness ever present in the news and social media. Seeing falling revenues doesn't surprise me. The irony of my comment is I'm making plans to watch KC vs Denver... and it's Monday.

>>Once the NFL became political The numbers have been decreasing for the past 6 years. It has nothing to do with NFL becoming political. http://www.businessinsider.com/espn-losing-subscribers-not-r...

You're talking about two different things. He's talking about the NFL and you're talking about ESPN. Definitely the politics has hurt the NFL, though there's a lot of disagreement over just how much, but football is only a small part of ESPN's offerings.

I'd be shocked if politics haven't hurt ESPN, too, but the effect is probably completely swamped by changes in viewing habits and a reduction in Disney's clout with cable companies.

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#58

Post by acjohnson55 »

jly wrote: post #49

> But can ESPN exist as a network without NFL games? Yes. It broadcasts talking about NFL, but that can continue whether it broadcasts their games or not. It has a 3-hour lead-in show on Sunday morning that gets sizable ratings while broadcasting zero games that day. Nobody subscribes to ESPN/cable just for MNF. In contrast, ESPN broadcasts dozens of college football games per year and spends probably an equal amount…

My thoughts exactly. Their problem is that cable TV as a whole has increasingly viable substitute goods. But there's no reason ESPN can't play that same game. I imagine it's only a matter of time before they put together streaming packages they sell direct to consumer. But they'll ride the value revenue till the wheels fall off first.

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#59

Post by WillyOnWheels »

ZoeZoeBee wrote: post #53
disease wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of many, many people I have met in the Midwest: the answer is racism. These people for some reason can't seem to grasp the simple fact that players are protesting the fact that black people are being shot and killed for either petty crimes or no crimes at all. You certainly don't have to agree with their protest, but not being able to empathize reflects much poorly on you than it does them.

Here we have a glaring example of the issue. You use feelings instead of data to make your point, the problem is your anecdotal assertions are not backed up by reality. 90% of those killed by police were armed. So far this year 15 African Americans have been killed while unarmed to 21 White Americans and the numbers are similar for the previous years where data is available https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/nat…

It's about ratios.

There are about 220 million White Americans. Your data claims 392 White Americans have been killed police in 2017 so far.

There are about 35 million Black Americans. Your data claims 190 Black Americans have been killed by police in 2017 so far.

If Black Americans were killed by police hypothetically at the same rate as White Americans, 62 Black Americans would be dead.

Do you see the huge disparity there?

Re: ESPN Can’t Afford Monday Night Football Any More

#60

Post by protomyth »

fotbr wrote: post #35
endtime wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens if the highest bidder can't pay the NFL enough to make it worthwhile? I keep seeing pictures of half-empty stands behind kneeling football players, and ultimately if the NFL destroys its value by alienating too many fans with politics, there's no reason the entire business won't or shouldn't collapse.

As for not paying the NFL enough to make it worthwhile: Someone will pick up the rights to show the games, or the league will offer their own service, or the games won't be played on Mondays/Thursdays and will go back to just being a Sunday sport. Regarding losing their audience and destroying their value: I stopped following the NFL not because of politics (the kneeling thing hadn't yet started), but because their p…

> I think they've been losing their audience for a while; the politics is just the latest (and possibly biggest) factor in their decline

Yeah, politics has been an issue, but you are correct, this isn't their first time they've offended viewers. Some people are ticked about the money grab around stadiums, the rule change to protect the QB, the concussion coverup, the various sex scandals locally (e.g. Vikings boat trip), wife beating, and (a really big factor) cannot afford to go to the games anymore. There has been a long line of things that are whittling away the fans. Never mind the problem of replacing fans who died with new young fans when entertainment options are vast.

NFL is not the only sport having problems. They are just the biggest in the US, and are showing the largest number loss. The general decline of ESPN, with all of the reasons to stop watching them, is also a factor. If you don't go home and watch Sports Center then maybe you won't be fired up for the NFL either.

At the end of the day, every decision is going to offend someone, just make sure the offended don't outnumber the people you attract to the sport.

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