Will automation put an end to the American trucker? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#51

Post by wott » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 7:20 PM UTC

rezashirazian wrote: post #38

Everyone talks about truck drivers becoming obsolete once self driving cars take over the road. What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology. Lawyers too.

> What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology.

You mean, because they operate on car crash victims?

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#52

Post by michrassena » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 7:26 PM UTC

KekDemaga wrote: post #50

spaced-out wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think a human driver would do if they were faced with a barricade? They'll hand over the keys. Act quickly and they probably won't even have the chance to call the cops before you take their phone. An automated truck will lock itself down, and start taking high def video. Plus, if it has a satellite hook-up, it can contact the police even from outside of cellphone range.

Laws would have to change with a person in the cab you are talking about Grand Theft, Kidnapping, and Robbery. With an AI it's just Grand Theft meaning you'd spend much less time in prison.

Exactly, the law hasn't caught up yet. Likely they'll take a cue from laws covering rail shipping, but I'm not a lawyer.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#53

Post by mschuster91 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 7:35 PM UTC

criddell wrote: post #27

michrassena wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to b…

> I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. I bet they have. Especially insurers.

> I bet they have. Especially insurers.

Externalize the cost: call the cops when the truck surveillance detects something and have them clean up the mess.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#54

Post by ThrustVectoring » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 7:58 PM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #34

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

There's very real advantages to long-haul trucking over rail. Shipping time costs logistics operations real money in terms of inventory costs, flexibility, and responsiveness to market conditions. Cargo ships are even cheaper than rail, but shipping costs aren't always the dominant concern. Similarly, some goods get air shipped even with the higher cost of doing so.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#55

Post by malandrew » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 7:59 PM UTC

I haven't thought of this until now, but it's going to be interesting to see the impact of self driving trucks on human migration. Today many people feel trapped where they live because it's prohibitively expensive to move. Once self-driving trucks are common, the cost of moving across the country should plummet. Imagine being able to move everything in your apartment or home across the country for a few hundred dollars.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#56

Post by malandrew » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 8:02 PM UTC

dchuk wrote: post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

What are the names of some of these companies in the trucking telematics space? Curious to know more about what they track.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#57

Post by notatoad » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 8:04 PM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

That's almost certainly a temporary effect though - if the trucks are being outfitted with the hardware necesary for full automation, full automation is only a software update away and the pilots will only have a job for the relatively short period where automation isn't good enough to handle that portion of the journey.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#58

Post by Density » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 8:04 PM UTC

wott wrote: post #51

rezashirazian wrote: post #38

Everyone talks about truck drivers becoming obsolete once self driving cars take over the road. What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology. Lawyers too.

> What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology. You mean, because they operate on car crash victims?

You jest but the vast majority of lawyers in the US practice automotive law.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#59

Post by alphaalpha101 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 8:09 PM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #42

zspade wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment invariably pops up in these threads; If it was going to, it already would have.. It's too late now. Would it have been a better solution? Probably, but the investment required (laying down the rails, land buyouts, copious use of emanate domain, political greasing of the wheels, etc...) has always been prohibitive. The gains would be shared between many disparate groups that would need to fund this togeth…

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them. The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks). It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

Yeah the impact on roads increases with the fourth power of vehicle weight. Why doesn't the tax?

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#60

Post by alphaalpha101 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 8:10 PM UTC

ThrustVectoring wrote: post #54

WalterBright wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

There's very real advantages to long-haul trucking over rail. Shipping time costs logistics operations real money in terms of inventory costs, flexibility, and responsiveness to market conditions. Cargo ships are even cheaper than rail, but shipping costs aren't always the dominant concern. Similarly, some goods get air shipped even with the higher cost of doing so.

And some things will always be trucked. The issue is that there are huge incentives to truck things beyond what would be the 'natural cost' if trucking industry had to pay its fair share of roading costs (which is, realistically, nearly all of the maintenance costs).