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The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

nobelprize.org

51–60 of 82 posts

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#51
post #45
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some cases, abstraction can be done without loss of accuracy. For example, in physics we can assume that charges bounded inside a sphere can be modeled as a point charge at the center of the sphere. It's not just a simpler model; it's mathematically equivalent, and provably so.

There are a lot of simplifications that get used in physics and engineering calculations. Ideal electrical circuits, ideal gasses, thin cylinder walls, lossless collisions, etc. etc. Whether or not a given simplification is appropriate depends on the situation (how much accuracy is needed? how close the simplification is to reality? what's the cost of not simplifying?)

And in some respects, the simplifications are even more justified in economics than physics. Friction between atoms doesn't tend to reduce when people start writing papers finding interesting results contingent on friction being significantly above zero; January increases in stock prices do shrink to the point where they don't represent a viable trading opportunity when traders read papers by Thaler et al on lack of any informational or tax reason for "January effects"

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#52

Economic Sciences deserve to take over the whole Nobel prize. They should get all the prizes. They have proven themselves as the ultimate woodo wizards of "applied" scientists. If you go to source page, you will see that the full name of the prize is "The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel" Why? There is no Nobel prize for economics. This was a self-congratulatory add-on instituted…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12678598

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9915943

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13702830

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8448602

etc...

We get it, the economics prize is not a true Nobel prize. It's tiresome to hear it every time the prize is mentioned.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#53
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not like economists don't know these things. Kahnemann got his Nobel a long time ago, after all. They also didn't grow tired to mention the flaws in the model when I learned them as an undergrad 10+ years ago. It's like people insisting physicists are ignoring wind resistance with their laws of motion. They know!

Absolutely. And of course, Kahneman and Tversky and Thaler didn't get a Nobel price for saying, "oh, hey, listen guys, actually sometimes people don't follow our standard 'homo economicus' rationality assumptions", but to study these deviations carefully (empirically and theoretically) and note when they're important and put them into a coherent framework with some predictive power (aka, a theory). On a side note, th…

I’m not sure how your second paragraph is relevant, but could you say more?

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#54

Economic Sciences deserve to take over the whole Nobel prize. They should get all the prizes. They have proven themselves as the ultimate woodo wizards of "applied" scientists. If you go to source page, you will see that the full name of the prize is "The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel" Why? There is no Nobel prize for economics. This was a self-congratulatory add-on instituted…

It's a Nobel Prize in roughly the same way that Economic Science is a science.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#55
I have a question about an example referenced in the Bloomberg article linked from a previous discussion [1]. Quoting from the article:

> He began with his own students, telling them to imagine that by attending his lecture, they had exposed themselves to a rare fatal disease. There was a 1 in 1,000 chance they had caught it. There was a single dose of the antidote: How much would they be willing to pay for it?

> Then he asked them the same question, in a different way: How much would they demand to be paid to attend a lecture in which there is a 1 in 1,000 chance of contracting a rare fatal disease, for which there was no antidote?

> The questions were practically identical, but the answers people gave to them were -- and are -- wildly different. People would say they would pay two grand for the antidote, for instance, but would need to be paid half a million dollars to expose themselves to the virus.

Would classical economics really predict that people would give the same answers to these two questions? The article claims the two situations are "practically identical" but to me they seem clearly different: it makes perfect sense to me that many people would pay less of their money for the antidote knowing they've been exposed vs. the amount they'd need to be paid to voluntarily expose themselves to the risk.

As a simple example, if one only has $1000 to their name, then $1000 is the max they could possibly pay for the antidote (assuming they can't get a loan), yet I'd expect that most wouldn't be willing to expose themselves to that risk just to double their money. I thought utility theory in classical economics recognized that the marginal utility of going from $1000 to $2000 is less than the marginal utility of going from $0 to $1000.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15432905

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#56

I have a question about an example referenced in the Bloomberg article linked from a previous discussion [1]. Quoting from the article: > He began with his own students, telling them to imagine that by attending his lecture, they had exposed themselves to a rare fatal disease. There was a 1 in 1,000 chance they had caught it. There was a single dose of the antidote: How much would they be willing to pay for it? > The…

There is the endowment effect, and then there is the effect of the diminishing marginal value of money. You're talking about the latter and it certainly is recognized in economics just about as far back in its history as you care to look. But Thaler was trying to demonstrate the former and it's the sort of insight he won the prize for theorizing about.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#57

I have a question about an example referenced in the Bloomberg article linked from a previous discussion [1]. Quoting from the article: > He began with his own students, telling them to imagine that by attending his lecture, they had exposed themselves to a rare fatal disease. There was a 1 in 1,000 chance they had caught it. There was a single dose of the antidote: How much would they be willing to pay for it? > The…

There is the endowment effect, and then there is the effect of the diminishing marginal value of money. You're talking about the latter and it certainly is recognized in economics just about as far back in its history as you care to look. But Thaler was trying to demonstrate the former and it's the sort of insight he won the prize for theorizing about.

I see, thanks for the response. I guess I just dislike the example because it fails to untangle these two effects :)

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#58
post #3

Considering the fact that Richard Thaler made a cameo in The Big Short Movie that was primarily demeaning Wall Street Banks and Economists who played along in the crisis, itself makes him an Economist who stands out. http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160226/NEWS01/16022...

I mean that doesn't really make him stand out; most economists will agree with the Big Short's account of the crisis. Except perhaps the coffee shop discussion at the end where Steve Carrell states banks did it because they expected to get bailed out (all evidence points that they didn't expect to get bailed out a priori and that they simply did it because shareholders and managers are greedy short sighted morons). T…

You will find a very large amount of economist who disagree with the idea that the stuff in Big Short caused the recession.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#60
Honestly, I really don't really like this pick.

Behavioral economics is extremely popular, especially outside economists themselves. But the problem is that it keeps repeating the same findings. We get it, people are not rational. You can read 150 year old economics books that mention these things. There is a 'behavioral economics' movement every 40 year.

The research that I find 100x more interesting is the research that actually looks at real world institutions and tries to figure out how it is possible that these things work even if you assume irrational humans. Why can you get almost anything delivered in 2 days if every single human in the chain is highly irrational.

The Nobel in 2009 was about those sort of things, but they don't get enough attention.

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