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Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

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Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#51

Post by scryder »

ewzimm wrote: post #39
kbos87 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument overlooks all of the negative externalities associated with a single large player that dominates all of these disparate industries. When smaller businesses can’t compete, there are hundreds of downstream effects. Businesses close. Real estate values fall. People lose a connection to the places they actually live in. The money we spend is funneled somewhere else. Our choices of employers become more and…

If small businesses can’t compete, it’s time for them to get creative and adjust their business models to become relevant again. There are all sorts of negative externalities involved in everyone just doing business as usual. No business has the right to stand still in the face of technological innovation and increased efficiency. For all the damage Amazon might do, they’re also forcing their competition to get bette…

> It’s time for them to get creative and adjust their business models to become relevant again

You’re assuming that at present small businesses can do this, or, at least will be able to make this transition before companies like Amazon have crowded them out of the space they operate in. I don’t think current evidence suggests that’s likely.

By analogy, small businesses right now are a bit like ants, and Amazon a child with a magnifying glass. The child and ants are categorically different, and the ants that the child chooses to melt can’t “get creative” or “adjust their model” from being the prey of a quasi-predator: they merely die, the threat is too powerful and their biology too slow to let them escape. There is such a mismatch in scale between the ants and child that even though both could, in vague terms be described as “living creatures”, and even although the ants, at their most powerful, can sting, the vast majority are merely at the child’s mercy, with the other ants only being safe by nature of being hidden.

What’s key is we’re not really seeing new small business competitors emerging who, were your model correct, should be “getting creative” and then successfully taking on Amazon locally, BUT INSTEAD we’re seeing what we expect in the unbalanced ant scenario, almost all companies and lines of business Amazon targets being taken over by them or destroyed.

Based on this, I’m inclined to believe the view you have is flawed. Not only is there not a level playing field in which getting creative would be meaningful, there isn’t even room to actually compete, were you creative, unless you’re the child’s size.

And even if you’re his size, the child is a vicious fighter.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#52

Post by Osmium »

ams6110 wrote: post #21
Osmium wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Amazon’s weaknesses are in the first case high-end design Just design generally, including their website ... anecdotally, so many people I know don't really know that Amazon Prime Video exists, or if it does exist how to find it. Likewise for Music. Apple has this discoverability problem too (Apple Music doesn't have a web UI, it might as well not exist if you can't install iTunes, and then Apple wonders why its so…

> so many people I know don't really know that Amazon Prime Video exists, or if it does exist how to find it. Likewise for Music. I know these things exist, but I don't use them much even as an Amazon Prime member. Why? Because Prime Video UX is poor compared to Netflix (and Netflix is no great shakes either, but it's better than Amazon), and Music has a pretty poor catalog and again a pretty poor UX.

> and Netflix is no great shakes either

And this is mostly because Netflix wants to hide the true extent of their library.

Hulu just had a recent, awful re-design too. They cover in-active thumbnails with gradients, you can barely see anything.

Apple TV (which I like as among the best) also has a ridiculously unergonomic remote and very confusing UI (do I want to press "menu" or "home"? And now the TV app is 'home' by default, it's even weirder...somehow, even though I know I think how it works, I always seem to press the wrong one.) And no picture-in-picture either, though their processors are plenty fast enough to support it. But their standard built-in TVML-based interfaces are functional, if a little boring, and the UI is responsive. And hey, at least they aren't showing me ads in the UI or tracking what I watch. But still, lots of little problems.

So much room for improvement here, by everyone.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#53

Post by asfasfgasgasg »

refurb wrote: post #38
rtpg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the dangers of monopoly, but I wish there was a stronger argument here. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, with Walmart. And none of these arguments worked! Walmart is big and dominant. It killed off smaller places, but people don't care because it has mostly everything and is cheap. "This convenient good thing is actually bad!" isn't super convincing I guess.... EDIT: the ultimate irony being…

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

> Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

We know that that has been true in many cases, but we don't know that it always will be true in all cases. For example, I don't think there's a very good argument that competitive pressure has led to a super high quality healthcare system in the US vs. the rest of the industrialized world. Competitive pressure optimizes for certain things, and those things are not always what is best for the public. Especially, if "competitive pressure" is applied by a trust, it can cause market failures.

I don't know that Amazon is that. Maybe it will be. But, last I checked, we do still have ground floor retail. I think there's an equilibrium that we'll reach at some point, where retail space commands lower rents and has to provide a high quality shopping experience. The Best Buys of the world are done for, but the Nordstroms are not.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#54

Post by rtpg »

refurb wrote: post #38
rtpg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the dangers of monopoly, but I wish there was a stronger argument here. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, with Walmart. And none of these arguments worked! Walmart is big and dominant. It killed off smaller places, but people don't care because it has mostly everything and is cheap. "This convenient good thing is actually bad!" isn't super convincing I guess.... EDIT: the ultimate irony being…

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

Sure, I like that I can start a company if I think I can do better than some other company. There are capital issues and incumbency issues, but in a lot of smaller industries you can "make the world a better place".

But on an ethical level we have to acknowledge that "letting the markets do their thing" doesn't automatically reach the best result. Me having all the money and you having none is a Pareto optimum, after all.

If we could make many people's lives better at the cost of a tiny bit of progress, we should consider it.

There's also the fact that progress isn't a line. Native ads are "progress". Bail loans are "progress". Employer-based health insurance is "progress". Society can make decisions that go beyond what makes people more money.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#55

Post by dilemma »

kbos87 wrote: post #10

I don’t think that the world can quite fathom how dangerous Amazon actually is to virtually every industry. When it comes to purveyors of physical goods, Amazon has the power to reshape the fabric of our streets and neighborhoods in ways few people can fathom. Say goodbye to grocery stores and ground floor retail if they get their way. They are just smart enough to do it slowly enough where they don’t have any jarrin…

Bricks and mortar isn't going anywhere. Alibaba is opening their own set of stores, so is Xiaomi, and Amazon owns and runs them.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#56

Post by AnIdiotOnTheNet »

asfasfgasgasg wrote: post #53
refurb wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

> Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right? We know that that has been true in many cases, but we don't know that it always will be true in all cases. For example, I don't think there's a very good argument that competitive pressure has led to a super high quality healthcare system in the US vs. the rest of the industrialized world. Competitive pressure optimizes for ce…

> I don't think there's a very good argument that competitive pressure has led to a super high quality healthcare system in the US

That's because there really isn't any competitive pressure. Not for consumers anyway. The way our healthcare is tied to our employment means we get little choice in providers ourselves, leaving that decision to our employers, who probably don't have our best interest at heart.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#57

Post by bhollander823 »

Osmium wrote: post #52
ams6110 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so many people I know don't really know that Amazon Prime Video exists, or if it does exist how to find it. Likewise for Music. I know these things exist, but I don't use them much even as an Amazon Prime member. Why? Because Prime Video UX is poor compared to Netflix (and Netflix is no great shakes either, but it's better than Amazon), and Music has a pretty poor catalog and again a pretty poor UX.

> and Netflix is no great shakes either And this is mostly because Netflix wants to hide the true extent of their library. Hulu just had a recent, awful re-design too. They cover in-active thumbnails with gradients, you can barely see anything. Apple TV (which I like as among the best) also has a ridiculously unergonomic remote and very confusing UI (do I want to press "menu" or "home"? And now the TV app is 'home' b…

What do you mean by "Netflix wants to hide the true extent of their library"? Why would they intentionally create a worse user experience?

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#58

Post by gigatexal »

scryder wrote: post #51
ewzimm wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If small businesses can’t compete, it’s time for them to get creative and adjust their business models to become relevant again. There are all sorts of negative externalities involved in everyone just doing business as usual. No business has the right to stand still in the face of technological innovation and increased efficiency. For all the damage Amazon might do, they’re also forcing their competition to get bette…

> It’s time for them to get creative and adjust their business models to become relevant again You’re assuming that at present small businesses can do this, or, at least will be able to make this transition before companies like Amazon have crowded them out of the space they operate in. I don’t think current evidence suggests that’s likely. By analogy, small businesses right now are a bit like ants, and Amazon a chil…

What you describe is a monopoly. As such those in oversight of such don’t see it that way and neither do I. Amazon’s sales still pale to that of Walmart’s. Is Wal-Mart threatened by Amazon sure! Because they haven’t innovated like Amazon has.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#59

Post by panabee »

if you're in the retail supply chain, you're at risk of destruction by amazon. lower prices mean more commerce flows through amazon, which strengthens the company. bezos evidently wasn't joking when he claimed, "your margin is my opportunity."

for all the valid concerns about one company consolidating too much power, amazon is also effectively saving consumers hundreds or thousands of dollars per year.

the margins of retail middlemen are being eaten by amazon and essentially pocketed by consumers or invested by amazon to eventually help consumers save or enjoy more.

amazon fearmongering is easy and fashionable, but all policies hurt some and help others. it would be refreshing to read an unbiased analysis of the trade-offs society faces if amazon continues to devour retail.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#60

Post by ewzimm »

scryder wrote: post #51
ewzimm wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If small businesses can’t compete, it’s time for them to get creative and adjust their business models to become relevant again. There are all sorts of negative externalities involved in everyone just doing business as usual. No business has the right to stand still in the face of technological innovation and increased efficiency. For all the damage Amazon might do, they’re also forcing their competition to get bette…

> It’s time for them to get creative and adjust their business models to become relevant again You’re assuming that at present small businesses can do this, or, at least will be able to make this transition before companies like Amazon have crowded them out of the space they operate in. I don’t think current evidence suggests that’s likely. By analogy, small businesses right now are a bit like ants, and Amazon a chil…

Ants and children are a good comparison. Individually, the ants are much smaller than the child, but the total biomass of ants and humans is roughly equal. With vastly different abilities, ants and humans are roughly equally successful at making more of themselves.

I'm not talking about a theoretical situation in which small businesses or even large ones might get creative to compete against Amazon. This is something that's actually happening right now, and consumers are benefiting from it. Prices are going down while the expected quality of customer service is going up. Wages in retail are starting to rise to attract better talent as competition increases. Companies that used to be complacent because they owned their local markets are rethinking their strategy for the first time in a long time because they have no choice.

The ants are thriving even in the cities.

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