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North Korea fires missile over Japan

theguardian.com

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Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#51

Post by boomboomsubban »

kabdib wrote: post #27

I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor. A "smugglers war". I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by multiple layers of inches-thick steel.

>I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor

How does North Korea benefit from an attack like that? The regime isn't suicidal, every move they make is to strengthen their own position.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#52

Post by Ting-wei »

baklavabook wrote: post #35
jonnathanson wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean gov…

That is it. China has full control over its huge border to NK. No way for them to import missile parts unless China is OK with that. Everything of value that NK has and that its elite enjoys is imported from China: Cars, buses, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones...

Plus, China could cut or reduce the oil/gas supply any day to zero.... if they wanted.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#53

Post by fastball »

DashRattlesnake wrote: post #44
emilsedgh wrote: post #42

Many people are blaming China for the whole NK situation for their "support" and asking for a regime change. What do you propose that China can do after the regime change? Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and great examples that you cannot just throw away a dictatorship. What follows is practically a game of thrones of powers in the region which is a lose-lose situation for everyone, specially people of the "free'd" count…

> Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya I think it's wrong to compare North Korea to those countries. For one, the post-regime change problems in those countries have been caused by Islamic insurgencies, which is not something I'd expect to happen in NK.

What, because East Asians are incapable of armed insurgency?

Are you forgetting the Viet Cong so quickly?

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#54

Post by ams6110 »

jonnathanson wrote: post #18
maruhan2 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?

Because Kim's reign is predicated on maintaining credibility with his generals. He does that by rattling his saber and extracting economic concessions from the global community in general (and the US in particular). Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably te…

Well he already backed off on his Guam threats. How much credibilty does that gain him with his generals, and how did Trump misplay that exactly?

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#55

Post by fastball »

kabdib wrote: post #27

I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor. A "smugglers war". I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by multiple layers of inches-thick steel.

  inches-thick steel
Lead would probably work better.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#56

Post by Rylinks »

emilsedgh wrote: post #42

Many people are blaming China for the whole NK situation for their "support" and asking for a regime change. What do you propose that China can do after the regime change? Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and great examples that you cannot just throw away a dictatorship. What follows is practically a game of thrones of powers in the region which is a lose-lose situation for everyone, specially people of the "free'd" count…

China has clearly shown a capability to govern reluctant populations. I'm not sure why occupied NK would be different.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#57

Post by sorenjan »

madads wrote: post #5

Is there any way an amateur can verify claims of a missile being fired? Does it appear on radar at all? Thinking one of the flight tracking sites. In today's world I'm skeptical to say the least.

The flight tracking sites doesn't use radar, they use ADS-B and a network of internet connected receivers.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#58

Post by [deleted] »

DashRattlesnake wrote: post #44
emilsedgh wrote: post #42

Many people are blaming China for the whole NK situation for their "support" and asking for a regime change. What do you propose that China can do after the regime change? Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and great examples that you cannot just throw away a dictatorship. What follows is practically a game of thrones of powers in the region which is a lose-lose situation for everyone, specially people of the "free'd" count…

> Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya I think it's wrong to compare North Korea to those countries. For one, the post-regime change problems in those countries have been caused by Islamic insurgencies, which is not something I'd expect to happen in NK.

[deleted]

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#59

Post by dforrestwilson »

ajross wrote: post #49
krapp wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We get the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea together on a conference call and all agree not to start World War 3 when China decides to push through some "regime change." Why would China do this? Because North Korea is useful to them as a buffer state and a proxy to aggravate the West, but only so long as they can be controlled. Once they pose a real threat to their neighbors, they also pose a real threat to Ch…

The problem with that plan is that China has only marginally more control over Kim than we do. He's a rogue from their perspective too, and their ability to effect a "regime change" is limited by the same "don't poke the nuclear nutjob" problem we have.

There's some truth to that (see the recent Malaysian assassination under the nose of Chinese security), but China very clearly has benefited from the status quo and I would bet that there are powerful people in the NE region of China who do have influence and are pedaling it like mad right now.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#60

Post by helthanatos »

jahaja wrote: post #26
helthanatos wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

That people can casually accept the massive loss of lives this would cause is bewildering.

Not really. Preserving us is more important than preserving them.
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