Scotland to seek second independence referendum • Hacker News Board

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#51

Post by RobertoG » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:31 PM UTC

aetherson wrote: post #46

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

"currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control"

And that's the key thing. They would be changing masters, probably for the worst.

As a former Euro supporter and now Euro sceptic I would recommend them to keep their lead in their own hand.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#52

Post by srssays » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:31 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #25

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.

In 2014, 55% of Scots voted to stay. If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#53

Post by andy_ppp » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:31 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #47

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#54

Post by edblarney » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:32 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #47

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Sweden chose not to join the Euro.

Oddly - European nations that don't use the Euro are generally much better off: Norway (though not EU), Denmark, Sweden, UK.

In hindsight, the UK's decision to not join the Euro is widely accepted as smart.

The Euro is effectively a 'hard Germany currency' that has entrapped the periphery of Europe into a monetary system that massively favours the Germans. Maybe it could have worked out - but from 2000-ish to 2008 - world bankers assumed the Euro meant 'collective risk pooling' so the periphery countries loaded up on cheap debt. But when the crash happened - we discovered there were going to be no bailouts - leaving the periphery with a massive balance sheet problem, and the total inability to manage monetary policy - or rather - they're stuck on a 'strict currency' which favours Germany who already had several advantages.

But I agree, if Scotland does go indy, then it may very well introduce a pegged currency, which makes sense as something temporary.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#55

Post by rkachowski » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:33 PM UTC

nailer wrote: post #38

bussie wrote: post #33

There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

> In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.

The classic example is usually presented as Spain, due to fears of setting a precedent that the Basque Country and Catalan could follow to remove themselves from Spain.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#56

Post by iMark » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:33 PM UTC

nailer wrote: post #38

bussie wrote: post #33

There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

> In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.

Spain has previously come out strongly against an independent Scotland joining the EU, largely because of the issue of Catalonian independence.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#57

Post by calibraxis » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:34 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #28

pjc50 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend…

Too late - Corbyn already said that he is "absolutely fine" with a new referendum.

Read straight from him, not corporate or state media middlemen. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#58

Post by vidarh » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:34 PM UTC

andy_ppp wrote: post #53

pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.

They can't stop Scotland from keeping the pound. They can stop Scotland from issuing its own notes valid in the remaining parts of the UK, but there is no way for the UK government to unilaterally decide that Scottish businesses and persons can't use GBP - they will have no jurisdiction over them if Scotland becomes independent.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#59

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:35 PM UTC

biofox wrote: post #37

pjc50 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.

On the point of internal colonialism: it might have been true once, but certainly not true today. All of the countries in the union have seats in Westminster, dedicate ministers and committees, as well as their own devolved parliaments. I'd say things are much worse for counties in the North of England, than for the other countries in the UK. The nature of democracy means the majority rules, which will always be prob…

> majority rules, which will always be problematic for minority communities

This is arguably the big problem of the 20th and 21st centuries: not all questions are sensibly amenable to majority rule, and minorities must have rights and protections against discriminatory politics. This tends to grate a bit with the majority, which is tolerable in OK economic times but can be vulnerable to demagogues.

Protection of minorities is baked into the Good Friday agreement. It's also differently baked into the Human Rights Act, which seems to be part of why the HRA is so unpopular in some quarters.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#60

Post by NachoDuck » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:36 PM UTC

nailer wrote: post #38

bussie wrote: post #33

There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

> In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.

Primarily Spain I think? I couldn't find a good source saying they would block the membership outright but there's an article here which includes some details about which states are opposed the EU negotiating potential membership for Scotland as part of Brexit (I realise that's slightly different to Scotland joining as an independent nation).

'Brexit: Spain and France oppose Scotland EU talks' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3665...