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The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

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Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#51

Post by danbruc »

xcasperx wrote: post #26
borgchick wrote: post #19

I don't think it is the ideas we lack, it is the focus on money. Ideas that won't make tonnes of money don't make it into reality. It's not, "hey, is that idea going to help people/planet/____"? It's, "hey, is that idea going to make me rich?"

First time I've seen someone discuss the triple bottom line in the wild. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triple-bottom-line.asp

But don't a lot of policies like for example a carbon tax indirectly reflect components of a triple bottom line in the bottom line of businesses? I would argue that making externalities show up in the annual report has been part of economic policies for a long time.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#52

Post by eli_gottlieb »

nfoz wrote: post #47
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #12

Have we somehow run out of big ideas before achieving cool scifi stuff, or are we just not allowing people to try out big ideas?

Who do you think is not allowing people to try out big ideas?

It seems that the commercialization impact of R&D spending is more complicated than I had thought (https://www.natureindex.com/news-blog/measuring-the-impact-o...), but I would still encourage you to look at how much various places spend on R&D, and how many people they manage to move through STEM university programs (in terms of percentage of their own native-born population).

I think that making people constantly scramble to meet the next deadline puts a harmful damper on innovation and Big New Ideas. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/06/peter-higgs-...

We also may need to spend more effort explicitly targeting our R&D industry towards finding mysteries and solving them. Basic scientific advancement, after all, comes precisely from exploring the unknown rather than from merely innovating within the bounds of the already-known.

And then there's patent reform and such to think about. Blah blah.

But you should take everything I say with a grain of salt, since I work for an R&D company.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#53

Post by nickff »

panarky wrote: post #48
nickff wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given Krugman's history of predicting the future (i.e. saying the internet was incremental like the fax), I view his endorsement as an indictment of the book

Krugman was also a very lonely voice going against conventional wisdom and time has proven him right on some big bets. Contrarian Call #1 - He called bullshit on the rationale for the Iraq war very early. Contrarian Call #2 - His models showed that the stimulus and bailouts after the financial collapse would not cause runaway inflation. If you read his review of the book (not an endorsement) you'll see that it's Cont…

To clarify your criticism, the definition of ad hominiem (from Wikipedia) is: "argumentum ad hominem, is a logical fallacy in which an argument is rebutted by attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument...".

I criticized him as having a bad history of predicting things (not his personality, position, or viewpoint), and history is the best predictor of future performance. Krugman said that the internet was similar to the fax (back in the 1990s), and was wrong; however, I will grant that Krugman may not be as bad as other NYT columnists.

Krugman, circa 1995: "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#54

Post by xcasperx »

danbruc wrote: post #51
xcasperx wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First time I've seen someone discuss the triple bottom line in the wild. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triple-bottom-line.asp

But don't a lot of policies like for example a carbon tax indirectly reflect components of a triple bottom line in the bottom line of businesses? I would argue that making externalities show up in the annual report has been part of economic policies for a long time.

I honestly just meant the term, but to what you are saying, I think it depends. If a company outsources their work force to a sweatshop in Asia is that following the TBL? Maybe, but probably not. It will, however, cause their stock price to go up and make them more competitive in their market.

Most public companies only started reporting a sustainability report about 4 years ago.

http://www.ga-institute.com/nc/issue-master-system/news-deta...

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#55

Post by serge2k »

milkytron wrote: post #28

> There are more scientists and engineers in the U.S. than ever before. None of this has translated into meaningful advances in Americans’ standard of living. It seems like this article is attempting to state a problem that doesn't exist to create a stir. No meaningful advances recently? I cannot take this statement seriously when I now have the entire internet easily accessible in my pocket at all times compared to…

> If the writer is talking speed performance, the Model S blows every competitor out of the water

in 0-60 time.

> And the batteries and motor take up less space when compared to the engine and drivetrain of comparable vehicles

Lots of weight though.

I still think the article is rubbish. The Model S is a pretty damn good electric car.

We are right on the brink of VR and AR being everyday life.

The past 10 years have revolutionized computing, again.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#56

Post by kusmi »

Not bad, the decision to cut the article right there. Of course, it's just clickbait, but very precisely executed. Makes me curious to know if WSJ editors use analytics software to engineer these.

If not, perhaps I can interest you in a demo of one? If you don't see an increase in turnover, well make the trail period free!

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#57

Post by toomuchtodo »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #41

Sheesh. I always disagree strongly with this mindset. The false dichotomy that if an idea doesn't immediately raise everyone's standard of living it isn't a "big idea." There are several technologies on the horizon that can change everything (as Steve Jobs would say) Real virtual reality - For a big chunk of the world who need to see it to understand it, that will open the doors to a learning, design, and experiencin…

Some of those ideas end the need for large chunks of an economy, and that's not a bad thing.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#58

Post by geooooooooobox »

candiodari wrote: post #18
geooooooooobox wrote: post #11

Didn't physicists of the old once say they were close to closing in the the grand theory of everything, it was Max Plank or someone who was told by some Physics Prof that Physics as they knew was completely discovered .. point being there will always be a big idea around the corner that will surprise everybody

Yes but the situation is very different. We have fast declining productivity, and nothing seems to be able to arrest that. Now what is declining productivity ? Well, it's a measure of how much you make, on average, from one unit of human labour. In other words: how much can one single average human produce, given the odds of them having a job (so automation is not really a positive factor for productivity anymore). T…

I wonder what does the advent of ideas have to do with the average joe? The collective doesn't seem to be important here

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#59

Post by AstralStorm »

drawkbox wrote: post #36

If we don't have millions of robots in space, at least collecting energy and exploring, we still have lots and lots to do, many things can still be improved. Once we do have AI and robotics in the reach of programmers then I bet we haven't even began to realize all the things we don't have now. I am a contrarian in that if computers added more work then so will robots, there will be more to do because there is more y…

Generally, space travel needs some sort of better engine to matter. Order of magnitude or many better.

A real breakthrough.

Maybe something out of left field in physics. Or maybe just tossing old fashioned hydrogen bombs.

Current space travel does not scale even at maximum efficiency possible.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#60

Post by AstralStorm »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #40
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #12

Have we somehow run out of big ideas before achieving cool scifi stuff, or are we just not allowing people to try out big ideas?

Exactly. Pick up any half-decent sci-fi book, or even rewatch Star Trek: TNG. There's plenty of cool stuff left to be done, and even more improvements to things that are already here. The real problem is that current economy doesn't let those ideas grow.

The other problem is that groundbreaking ideas take increasingly more genius and luck.

This has always been true.

Therefore any kind of work aimed at making peak mental performance better would be the most important, to start cascade of improvement and fuel it.

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