Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big • Hacker News Board

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#51

Post by pmelendez » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:48 PM UTC

return0 wrote: post #23

pmelendez wrote: post #4

I am ok with Thiel thinking Trump would win. What was a disappointment for me is that Thiel actually believes Trump was a good candidate and (I speculate) agrees with his platform. Also, apparently has no problem with the incendiary and hateful speech of Trump

He explains his rational argument here[1]. Basically his argument is "don't take Trump literally, take him seriously". 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-LJqPQEJ4

Being Venezuelan I am familiar with the whole "pay attention what he does instead of what it says", and that didn't work well for us.

The problem with authoritarian governments is that they can delay plans but never forget about them.

If Thiel really think that, then he is not only an opportunist but also a fool.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#52

Post by tedunangst » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:49 PM UTC

lingben wrote: post #36

oldmanjay wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very many sane people had no desire to see Hillary Clinton be the president of the United States. There's just no need to keep pretending that your opinion is the only rational choice when you've been repudiated so completely.

> There's just no need to keep pretending that your opinion is the only rational choice when you've been repudiated so completely. You do realize that Clinton won the popular vote, right? the majority of Americans agree with her policies and voted for her. Trump won because of the arcane 18th century election structure unique to the US called an electoral college.

> the majority of Americans agree with her policies and voted for her.

No, not actually. Clinton was a lot closer to Trump's vote count than 50%.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#53

Post by stcredzero » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:49 PM UTC

A lot of the dynamics were very similar to the Brexit vote in the U.K.,” which also took many commentators by surprise.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign, he said, forgot the motto that Bill Clinton had won the presidency with in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Donald Trump was a stealth 3rd party candidate, riding on a wave produced by demographic changes and the falling fortunes of a large demographic. He's down with OPP -- where OPP means "Other Person's Party." He's used other people's money to further himself. This time, he used the Republican Party, but historically, he should be compared to other 3rd party candidates.

The media producing class in this country is out of touch with a whopping huge fraction of the populace which is going from majority middle class status to minority lower class. Not only is the media producing class out of touch, many of them on the political left actively villify and denigrate them. Seriously, what did they expect?

The degree to which the upper-middle class is out of touch, concerned with fripperies, and denigrating of the lower classes in the Bay Area is starting to look like a bunch of tropes from French Revolution period dramas. Programmers and technorati -- This means you!

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#54

Post by simplemath » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:49 PM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #39

simplemath wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah because at least half the voting populace is assholes. We just elected a child rapist who's most relevant contribution to society unto now is the Celebrity Apprentice. President Celebrity Apprentice! Great fucking job! You fools.

Now that this is out of your system, consider working for the progress you want to see, instead of piling on with insults. The election was yesterday, it's too late to change anyone's mind.

I really dont care to change anyone's mind. That hasnt been possible in years anyway.

I caucused for my candidate, I did my civic duty.

We're a nation of mouthbreathers who cant be reliably counted up to read the front page of a fucking newspaper, let alone do real research about presidential candidates let alone downballot measures.

I'm not commenting out of desire for change, I'm incensed.

My daughters are going to suffer because of 50 million assholes, and another 50 million more assholes who couldnt be bothered to get off their asses to vote.

You tell your kids that bullies dont win, you tell them to do their homework, that being prepared counts, you tell them that they have an even chance, as a woman in a modern world.

Well, Bob, the Trump electorate put the lie to all of that.

And I'm fucking pissed off about it.

I see literally NO common ground with anyone who could look past Trump's character to pull the lever for him.

To me, they ARE deplorables, and willful ignorance isnt an excuse.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#55

Post by tedmiston » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:51 PM UTC

> “His odds were very badly underestimated,” he said. “Trump voters were not being captured by the polls. A lot of the dynamics were very similar to the Brexit vote in the U.K.,” which also took many commentators by surprise.

The real takeaway for me is figuring why this is the case — how could / can we change the polls to be more robust?

To some degree, perhaps the polls influence the outcome of the election. For example, if people on the edge of voting or not think Clinton will win by a healthy margin, they might not actually bother to vote.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#56

Post by EdSharkey » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:52 PM UTC

I didn't vote for Trump nor Clinton. Although I'm right-leaning on most issues, I am in the perplexed camp of why 50% of voters selected Trump. I was sure Hillary was going to win.

I'm especially bewildered why deeply religious, evangelical Christians I know were big on Trump. He's such a sinner by biblical standards, the love for the guy didn't make sense - I thought it'd be hypocrisy to support the guy. For most, they told me the single issue for them was the supreme court nominees that Trump was promising to put forward. But, in discussing what Trump was going to do once elected, the level of projection of their goodness onto Trump seemed to go to delusional, fantasy-land places.

What I'm coming to realize is that, being upper middle-class puts me completely out of touch culturally with the 50% that voted for Trump. The book Coming Apart, by Charles Murray is really helping me understand what is going on in America and what a cloistered life I've led.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#57

Post by okocha » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:53 PM UTC

ktamura wrote: post #5

This is a stroke of genius by Peter Thiel. In hindsight, he was hedged. If Clinton won, his Trump endorsement would have been chalked up to his contrarian, eccentric bent. If Trump won -and he did- Thiel's bet would have a huge return. His self-interest aside, this is a huge deal for Palantir, the company that he helped found and has many federal governments as their client. Also, in a sense, Thiel ensured that Silic…

Actually as far as Immigration goes, I don't think Thiel is great champion to pick. Even tho he himself was born in Germany, he has in fact donated millions of dollars to NumbersUSA, a lobbying organization that seeks to reduce US immigration to pre-1965 levels.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#58

Post by ErikVandeWater » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:53 PM UTC

kbenson wrote: post #42

return0 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He explains his rational argument here[1]. Basically his argument is "don't take Trump literally, take him seriously". 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-LJqPQEJ4

> Basically his argument is "don't take Trump literally, take him seriously". Which I guess is great if you're a billionaire and probably get some time with Trump or someone close to him that knows what he actually plans to do. In the meantime, all the rest of us are left with "I'm going to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something great." Forgive me if I would have preferred something a little more substantial.…

Can any politician be taken literally, though? How did Obama's promises on the revolving door between lobbyists and his administration work out? Or his promise on health insurance premiums? These promises aren't the exception, they are the rule. Politicians (almost) always have to lie to win. So Trump not being specific as to what he will do seems unlikely to be any different to interpret than if he made very specific plans.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#59

Post by leurfete » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:53 PM UTC

stcredzero wrote: post #53

A lot of the dynamics were very similar to the Brexit vote in the U.K.,” which also took many commentators by surprise. Hillary Clinton’s campaign, he said, forgot the motto that Bill Clinton had won the presidency with in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Donald Trump was a stealth 3rd party candidate, riding on a wave produced by demographic changes and the falling fortunes of a large demographic. He's down with OP…

America has a lot of pent up energy right now. It's a good time to rewatch Les Deplorables. :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMYNfQlf1H8

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#60

Post by return0 » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 11:55 PM UTC

EdSharkey wrote: post #56

I didn't vote for Trump nor Clinton. Although I'm right-leaning on most issues, I am in the perplexed camp of why 50% of voters selected Trump. I was sure Hillary was going to win. I'm especially bewildered why deeply religious, evangelical Christians I know were big on Trump. He's such a sinner by biblical standards, the love for the guy didn't make sense - I thought it'd be hypocrisy to support the guy. For most, t…

You would be wrong i believe, because it seems that everyone, and not just the deplorables voted trump. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/white-voters...