This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
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Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#52I have no evidence one way or the other but would be interested to see more context.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#53This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
They predicted the Kentucky Derby (Superfecta) using this same A.I., based on a challenge from another reporter: http://www.newsweek.com/artificial-intelligence-turns-20-110...
At the moment your comment history doesn't make a great argument, eg: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11663155
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#54This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
But this isn't that at all. 1. They made the predictions well before hand and released them to the public. 2. As the article stated, they also did the same thing with Hockey, Derby, and Academy Awards.
There was absolutely SOME luck involved, however, because I don't believe that, for instance, there is zero randomness in the World Series, which would have to be the case if one could absolutely predict it accurately.
[UPDATE: to be clear, I'm assuming that Unanimous didn't make thousands of similarly high-level predictions, and then only report the ones that did well. I think that's a reasonable assumption, because there aren't thousands of high-level predictions on the level of the Oscars and World Series.]
[UPDATE 2: I just registered at the site. It appears that many people can ask the same question, many times. The same question looks like it can be asked, in fact, many thousands of times. If they were simply cherry-picking the one answer out of thousands that was correct, then this is p-hacking. However, the press release is listing questions asked by prominent entities such as Newsweek and TechRepublic. There aren't all that many of such entities asking such questions of UNU. So the water is a little murky, but it still looks like UNU is doing something impressive.]
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#55Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#56This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#57UNU seems to get their press releases on here a lot. As far as I can see there's not much "AI" involved, just a UI over the "wisdom of crowds" method of making predictions. In this case, the Cubs were heavily favored all season to win the World Series, had arguably one of the best GMs and managers in baseball, and a raft of all-star players. Goat aside, it was fairly smart money to lean towards them from mid-season o…
Correctly predicting who would advance in the post season is mostly luck.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#58Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#59Has Unu made any incorrect predictions? Their blog only seems to cover the big, successful ones.
In response to such skepticism, reporters come up with their own questions and ask UNU to make predictions. And the reporters monitor the process. That's what this set of picks is - it was done for the BOSTON GLOBE, at their request, with their own participants: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/10/04/group-g...
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#60This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
[0] https://medium.com/message/how-to-always-be-right-on-the-int...