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Re: undefined

#51

Post by brandon272 »

blhack wrote: post #35
brandon272 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His solution has been to advocate increased immigration. Which doesn't square with his candidate's rigidly anti-immigrant policy proposals.

He isn't "rigidly anti-immigration". He is against immigration of low-skilled workers who are working low paying jobs. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/07/trump_c...

Unfortunately I can't take a policy position made by Donald Trump a little over a month ago seriously because his policy positions have been known to change day to day or even within a single speech.

Re: undefined

#52

Post by argonaut »

blhack wrote: post #32
vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Trump isn't nearly as far behind as you may think: http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, this poll is an outlier because their methodology is very different than most other polls. Yes, Nate Silver has a very different outlook on the election, but Nate Silver was also not very reliable during the primary season (although that is, by his admission, because primaries don't have very good poll…

You've just selected the national poll that is the most favorable to Trump. An average over polls >> any individual poll. Note that I am not saying that poll should be thrown out. But picking one poll in isolation is almost useless.

Re: undefined

#53

Post by blhack »

brandon272 wrote: post #51
blhack wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He isn't "rigidly anti-immigration". He is against immigration of low-skilled workers who are working low paying jobs. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/07/trump_c...

Unfortunately I can't take a policy position made by Donald Trump a little over a month ago seriously because his policy positions have been known to change day to day or even within a single speech .

Fair point.

Re: undefined

#54

Post by heartbreak »

blhack wrote: post #32
vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Trump isn't nearly as far behind as you may think: http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, this poll is an outlier because their methodology is very different than most other polls. Yes, Nate Silver has a very different outlook on the election, but Nate Silver was also not very reliable during the primary season (although that is, by his admission, because primaries don't have very good poll…

Regarding that poll specifically: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-...

Re: undefined

#55

Post by dlss »

nostrademons wrote: post #42
vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Pretty much all of Thiel's investing thesis is to invest in things that are statistically on track to fail, but whose payoff if they succeed is greater than most people imagine. PayPal, Facebook - both of these were terrible ideas when they came out (along with a number of other ones that did, in fact, fail). His idea is that people consistently mis-price risk, and so investing in a portfolio where everyone else thin…

> That's worth a lot more than $12.5M.

Agreed. (Though FWIW $1.25M is the amount he invested)

Re: undefined

#57

Post by DougN7 »

bobsgame wrote: post #38

I'm not very political and I haven't decided who to vote for yet, but I don't understand why the tech industry is so anti-Trump. He seems like a relatively sincere and smart guy to me, and some of his policies seem to be better for business. Is it because of tougher immigration laws? Are there other reasons based on his policies, or is it mostly just emotional?

From my observations, the tech industry leans pretty heavily liberal/democrat.

Re: undefined

#58

Post by vinhboy »

blhack wrote: post #32
vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Trump isn't nearly as far behind as you may think: http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, this poll is an outlier because their methodology is very different than most other polls. Yes, Nate Silver has a very different outlook on the election, but Nate Silver was also not very reliable during the primary season (although that is, by his admission, because primaries don't have very good poll…

I heard about this poll, but I haven't paid attention to it. You got me reading up on it.

Now I can't sleep...

Re: undefined

#59

Post by blhack »

argonaut wrote: post #52
blhack wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump isn't nearly as far behind as you may think: http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, this poll is an outlier because their methodology is very different than most other polls. Yes, Nate Silver has a very different outlook on the election, but Nate Silver was also not very reliable during the primary season (although that is, by his admission, because primaries don't have very good poll…

You've just selected the national poll that is the most favorable to Trump. An average over polls >> any individual poll. Note that I am not saying that poll should be thrown out. But picking one poll in isolation is almost useless.

Looking at this specific poll in isolation is fine as long as you understand that you are looking at it in isolation.

I say so because of its polling methodology, which is unique.

If you're a politics/polling nerd, this poll is interesting. If you're not, then yes, you are probably better off either just reading 538, or looking at the RCP polling average.

https://news.usc.edu/109339/why-the-usc-dornsifel-a-times-pr...

Re: undefined

#60

Post by morgante »

internaut wrote: post #50
morgante wrote: post #29

I'm genuinely curious what the rational for Thiel is in doing this. He's a smart guy, but I just don't see the ROI. At this point, it seems very unlikely that Trump will get elected. So Thiel isn't getting access to a future President. Plus, in addition to the monetary cost of the donation there's definitely a very real reputational cost. A lot of people in SV hate Trump and are completely mystified as to Thiel's sup…

It's the Stagnation Hypothesis. More precisely it is the high level implications of the Stagnation Hypothesis. You won't know it from HN or a survey of typical developers but the people who really run Silicon Valley have a set of beliefs about the world which are very different to the people who work for them. Watch this all the way through. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMpmfaE9bII

I'm not talking about typical developers.

Lots of top technology leaders have come out vehemently against Trump, [0] including Sam Altman, who I would definitely include in "the people who really run Silicon Valley." [1]

To be clear, I'm not disputing Thiel's politics. I think he's right about a lot of things. They have near-zero overlap with Trump's policies. Trump is easily the least libertarian Republican presidential candidate in recent history.

[0] https://shift.newco.co/an-open-letter-from-technology-sector...

[1] http://blog.samaltman.com/trump

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