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The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

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Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#51
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just going to be about straight miles driven, it's about the technology being focused on and what's possible with it. Both Tesla and comma.ai are focusing primarily on what the car can see and do with it's own sensors... Google's cars are only functional on roads excessively mapped far above the normal Google Maps level. Google's existing strategy for self-driving cars isn't practical at a national level bec…

Tesla is either already mapping roads through the sensors on their cars, or is only one software update away from doing so. Their mapping data will be a lot fresher than Google's.

This is true but mostly irrelevant, because mapping data is the least valuable self-driving data. Google focuses on it because Google has it already. Google Maps is one of the things Google has that few else have, so it's obvious for them to build their technology on it... nobody else can copy them.

But if you have the most cars collecting the freshest data, you still have to bear in mind, the car collecting that data, is currently relying on the old data. Which means your cars can't trust the map data. And the reality is, with how much things in the real world change, your map data will never be trustworthy. You can have it, but you can't rely on it.

Which is a better self-driving car? The car that can look at a cloud-based 3D map of every object in the entire town, assuming it's current, and decide on a route? Or the car that can ping Google Maps, get told "turn left on Main, right on Washington" then entirely from it's live surroundings, decide how to drive?

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#52
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

200M km of adaptive cruise control & lane assist on a highway is very different from 2.7M km of fully autonomous driving on city streets & highway.

Think of the data collection aspect of it, though. Tesla's driving AI will know what happens in the real world better than Google's driving AI does.

Data is a commodity.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#53
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just going to be about straight miles driven, it's about the technology being focused on and what's possible with it. Both Tesla and comma.ai are focusing primarily on what the car can see and do with it's own sensors... Google's cars are only functional on roads excessively mapped far above the normal Google Maps level. Google's existing strategy for self-driving cars isn't practical at a national level bec…

>> Google's existing strategy for self-driving cars isn't practical at a national level because of that extensive mapping requirement, and it possibly never will be. >> Google's sensor platform is the most expensive out there. >> Google has never tested in bad weather What about a self-driving cars as a service ? they can be the first to start a very profitable service that is limited in area and in weather even thou…

Sure, they could definitely do similarly to what Uber just announced, in a small scope area like the Bay Area suburbs. But that's not likely to be a high margin product, certainly not something Google would want to hang onto long term. It's far smarter to be selling software licenses or cloud access to millions of units built by other car manufacturers and operated by individuals or other companies at scale, that's where the money is.

But you also have to realize that you'll also highlight the weaknesses of the technology. People may not be able to easily specify to the car where they'd like to disembark. What if people want to be taken just outside the service area? Uber is including a human with their self-driving project for now, which doesn't save them (or you) any money.

Google learned from Glass that a small number of users and a lot of public attention and hype about a product can quickly eviscerate it. The technology was good, but people without hands-on experience misunderstood it, and a couple small incidents became national news. A small rollout can just as easily kill your project as kick it off.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#54
post #16

I have been wondering if Google hasn't already lost the self driving race to Tesla. Google still drives a few test vehicles around and has totalled some 2.7 million km: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_self-driving_car Tesla has more than 100,000 model S driving around and in just 7 months their auto pilots have already surpassed the km driven by Google for the past 7 years by almost a factor 100 (roughly 200M…

Tesla's auto pilot isn't at all comparable to what Google are doing. It essentially the same as the adaptive cruse control (cruse control that adjusts to traffic in front) and lane assist (auto stearing to stay in lane) you can get from most other car manufactures as an option. That's not to say that tesla isn't developing full automation it's just that what they sell now is just clever branding on something you can…

Data is the ammo that will win the war of self-driving car companies.

Tesla, with a large, update-able fleet in the field, has a much larger data-collection platform than Google. Even if they're not using it for full automation now, the collection itself is very valuable.

This is almost certainly why Uber is putting self-driving cars into the field now as well, even though they are clearly not ready for prime-time. They need those sensor packages to be driving around on real roads and in real traffic.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#55
post #16

I have been wondering if Google hasn't already lost the self driving race to Tesla. Google still drives a few test vehicles around and has totalled some 2.7 million km: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_self-driving_car Tesla has more than 100,000 model S driving around and in just 7 months their auto pilots have already surpassed the km driven by Google for the past 7 years by almost a factor 100 (roughly 200M…

Tesla may have an order of magnitude more kilometers, but the quality of data that Google is collecting is (IMO) more than an order of magnitude superior per kilometer. Tesla (currently) has one radar, one camera and 4 short distance ultrasonic sensors. Google has LIDAR plus a lot more. Tesla's suite may or may not be sufficient for operation. But for training, good data is critical.

The requirement of what you need to compare with that data though, is important. Tesla's cars are training off less detailed data, yes. But that also means they're designed to work with less data available. Google's cars require $150,000 worth of sensor hardware. Will that price go down, sure? But Tesla's will be even cheaper.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla may have an order of magnitude more kilometers, but the quality of data that Google is collecting is (IMO) more than an order of magnitude superior per kilometer. Tesla (currently) has one radar, one camera and 4 short distance ultrasonic sensors. Google has LIDAR plus a lot more. Tesla's suite may or may not be sufficient for operation. But for training, good data is critical.

The requirement of what you need to compare with that data though, is important. Tesla's cars are training off less detailed data, yes. But that also means they're designed to work with less data available. Google's cars require $150,000 worth of sensor hardware. Will that price go down, sure? But Tesla's will be even cheaper.

I think that in 10 years time, time of flight lidars will become ubiquitous, just as common as digital cameras are now. And this will usher a new revolution of interaction between reality and the digital world.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#57
Meh.

If you're familiar with the internals of Google (or have ever worked there), then you wouldn't even be slightly surprised by the content of this article or the ever present stream of product failures from Google. In fact, if you're aware, then you know things are likely to remain this way until something is done about all the BS present internally.

You see the "difficult to work-- FOR" and almost (or all out) sociopathic leaders being outed to some extent in the last year or so: commonplace. That is, Google likes to position itself as being above such stupidity, but if you listen to what they say more carefully, you see this is their default/go-to strategy. That is, they explicitly seek out such personalities (similar to many VCs), as they believe (based on "data") that it's what's more likely to lead to success.

Also, while it would be easy to believe Google is all about the "moon shots" they like touting/hyping (especially given how much money they are dumping in that direction), if you look at who they are putting in key positions, and how everything is setup, you immediately realize that (regardless of what they are doing) it will all likely go nowhere.

Something is very strange about that place. It's like they have no brain. It's like they are just outright stupid. Which I suppose is hard to say (and have believed), especially after years of hype (and supporting anecdotes) about its exceptionally talented pool of employees.

Essentially, it often seems like a sea of INTJs who like to parade around as though they know what to do with data (and are above bias and feeding into their own BS, because they are "data-driven"), but that at the end of the day are just going based on whim/gut, one which is more self-centered and out of touch than "in tune with" and reflective of the world at large (or where it's going).

I suppose if you spin around in your own shht enough, and surround yourself with more of-- yourself-- then eventually, you'll fall into line believing your own BS and that you must be right.

I remember when I was at Google for a short time in 2010. The place was a source of endless annoyance and irritation. The field was wide open, and it was all there for the taking, but then they just consistently and continually kept making the dumbest decisions. And they'd defend those decisions as though they were God almighty and immune to being wrong. It was the greatest consistent stream of stupidity I had ever seen. And by the looks of it, nothing has really changed. It's just been shht, then more shht, then more BS trying to explain away the shht, as though shht isn't what it is.

It's not that they "fail often due to releasing more and sooner" or "see something beyond the field of view of many;" it's that they just plain failed and it was most likely due to stupidity/credentials (you heard what I said) being heard over repeated statements of what made more sense (or of what would be more likely to go somewhere). Also, that failure that looks like a half-assed piece of crap likely was likely 2 years (or more) in the making, rather than the 6-8 weeks it seems went into it.

It's just shht every time, and as soon as you step into realizing it, you'll see that it's always just more shht from them. Their only successes (even in their "main" business) have come from the competition "falling off" (F'ing themselves over), rather than from them releasing things that are worthwhile or better.

The place was extremely infuriating to me, and I couldn't wait to leave. I was in silent shock the majority of the time I was there, and it seems that even though 6+ years have gone by, not much has changed!

I'll say it outright and in plain English: the "almighty" Google-- the almighty enterprise of innovation-- the almighty force for pushing the web/world forward-- is completely full of shht! They couldn't put out an innovative (or even just quality) product to save their lives! If anything surfaces from them that's not more garbage, then it was likely from an acquisition. And even then, it seems they are F'ing even those avenues up more frequently as time goes by.

Google Photos: acquisition!

Google DeepMind: acquisition!

Google ATAP: acquisition!

Etc.

They've got nothing.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla may have an order of magnitude more kilometers, but the quality of data that Google is collecting is (IMO) more than an order of magnitude superior per kilometer. Tesla (currently) has one radar, one camera and 4 short distance ultrasonic sensors. Google has LIDAR plus a lot more. Tesla's suite may or may not be sufficient for operation. But for training, good data is critical.

The requirement of what you need to compare with that data though, is important. Tesla's cars are training off less detailed data, yes. But that also means they're designed to work with less data available. Google's cars require $150,000 worth of sensor hardware. Will that price go down, sure? But Tesla's will be even cheaper.

Google could easily build their software model so that it only uses a subset of the available sensors. They can then use the full set of sensors to judge the effectiveness of that model.

Tesla can't do the inverse.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#59
post #40
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google brain was an acquisition, not a Google X project.

Google Brain was an internal development, while Google DeepMind was an acquisition. What the conceptual difference is supposed to be between the two is hard to say.

Yes you're right. How confusing!

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#60
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just going to be about straight miles driven, it's about the technology being focused on and what's possible with it. Both Tesla and comma.ai are focusing primarily on what the car can see and do with it's own sensors... Google's cars are only functional on roads excessively mapped far above the normal Google Maps level. Google's existing strategy for self-driving cars isn't practical at a national level bec…

>> Google's existing strategy for self-driving cars isn't practical at a national level because of that extensive mapping requirement, and it possibly never will be. >> Google's sensor platform is the most expensive out there. >> Google has never tested in bad weather What about a self-driving cars as a service ? they can be the first to start a very profitable service that is limited in area and in weather even thou…

A few years ago I was 100% gung-ho about Robotaxis, and I went through a mild depression last winter when I gave way to mounting evidence that it's a really hard problem and the 'it's 30 years out' naysayers are probably correct. It just sucks being wrong.

Google's Koala cars are functional under only the most idyllic, constrained and carefully monitored conditions. There's a huge laundry list of unsolved, and unknown problems between what Google has demonstrated so far and where they need to be technology-wise to run a robust, reliable, profit generating service at the scale needed to cover their R&D.

The casual thought experimenter generally fails to recognize the frequency with which they utilize higher level reasoning when driving that's well beyond the limits of the current state of the art in AI. Nobody has the slightest idea of how to solve this, let alone dig into all the as-of-yet not understood logistical problems inherent in commercializing the technology, an unexplored realm rife with any number of unknown unknowns.

The real world is a very messy place. Unlike Google, Uber is eyeballs deep in the messiness of the real world, so they're probably better poised, though a lot can change in 5 or 10 years. The competitive playing field has been so dramatically altered in the past 2 or 3 years that the days when Google was the only company anyone took seriously feels like ancient history.

With regards to the sensors, my bet is that by the time AI's capacity to reason is where it needs to be, the sensors and software needed to see and interpret the dynamic driving environment will be dirt cheap. Probably all you'll need is cameras, their cost keeps going down and the state of the art in image processing is progressing and will continue to progress.

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