51–60 of 84 posts
Really successful traders spend their obtaining insider information, not massaging public data. It stands to reason that an ensemble of technical trading methods would regress towards the mean.
Using insider information is illegal. If you mean insider information then this is total nonsense. Sure, there are a few that do illegal things (and inevitably get caught since there is so much monitoring going on).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is exactly true. I had the pleasure of having a very short sit down with one of the world's most successful traders and he said this in not so many words. It was more subtle than inside information. He implied that he could actually influence the outcome and hurried me on from that point. Mind blown.
Sounds like Billions is not that far off...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is exactly true. I had the pleasure of having a very short sit down with one of the world's most successful traders and he said this in not so many words. It was more subtle than inside information. He implied that he could actually influence the outcome and hurried me on from that point. Mind blown.
Please do share more if you have anything.
For example, http://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-george...
What did Soros know about what would happen and what did he actually cause to happen? The story sounds nice on the surface (I made a multi-billion dollar bet on a quote from some guy - lol), but I wouldn't be surprised if there was some back channelling going on.
If anyone else is getting errors when loading the page, here's the google cached version http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-ciyXfS...
You can use ML to make money on encrypted stock data for free. Think Kaggle but the winning models are used to trade.
If anyone else is getting errors when loading the page, here's the google cached version http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-ciyXfS...
http://52.11.211.67/recommend/app/hidden_connections?query=h...
http://52.11.211.67/recommend/historical-trends/index-contra...
It's just so ridiculously easy to overfit these models, and so so many ways to shoot yourself in the foot as a result. For example, "I split the data set into 5 random segments and then trained a model on 4 of the 5 segments and then tested it on 5th." Such data is serially correlated (it's not good old iid) so already it looks like you have poisoned the test set with information from the training set. The hard part…
Never understood why anyone would spend time creating any trading method given even if it did work (possible, but unlikely) the SEC would audit you and then leak how you were making the outperforming returns. Welcome any thoughts, in part because legally beating the market is possible, just don't get the SEC & OPSEC aspect.
The problem isn't coming up with an algorithm that works (i.e. more wins than losses). The difficulty is gaining confidence in your algo and determining when to move from paper trading to actual trading. You run into counter-intuitive things while training a neural net, for example. You'd think more training data would be good, but when training neural nets, you actually want to use as little data as possible while s…
An algorithm that works would also include the ability to limit losses. An algorithm might be correct 9 out of 10 times, but may lose more in a single transaction than what it earned in those 9 winning transactions.
Former professional investment manager here... The biggest problem with things like this, which almost nobody talks about in the context of investing, is publication bias. 100 people try to develop a profitable trading algorithm. 1 comes up with one that looks great on back-tests at a 1% confidence (in other words, exactly what you'd expect from random chance alone over 100 trials). That person writes an article/pitc…
> 100 people try to develop a profitable trading algorithm.... It's much worse than this with machine learning approaches. Imagine a million people trying to find a profitable algo, all on your laptop, and you are choosing the best one out of all of those. If you are used to pen-and-paper trading strategies, or even excel spreadsheets, machine learning is just a completely different level to this. And probably how it…