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Julie Rubicon

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51–60 of 139 posts

Re: Julie Rubicon

#51
It is a fun story and one that comes at the question of "how much data is too much data and is too hard to resist?" Something that anyone who has worked in a popular Internet facing application has to come terms with. I found 'Manna'[1] a more compelling emergent AI story, but the data as predictor aspects of this story have their own particular flavor.

One of the things that immediately flashed it as fiction for me was that the graphs had all the same shape, which if you've ever looked at trend graphs you will see they might all have a similar outlier quality to them but they build and sustain in different ways.

At Blekko (a search engine company) we did an interesting study on query traffic to see if you could "predict" the "hallmark" holidays based on search queries. The idea was that holidays like Valentines Day come up, people start thinking about plans or gifts before that, could we advise an advertiser when the "peak" planning session was so that they could maximize the impact of their advertising spend by focusing it during the peak? And if so what sorts of queries were people making that indicated they were doing holiday planning? The results were mixed. For things like Valentines it was easy, flowers, chocolates, bed & breakfast reservations sort of rose out of the general query stream, St. Patrick's Day? Not so much. But the data peaks all had different shapes appropriate for different levels of impact (Christmas shopping really starts in August among the back to school traffic for the really prepared). So looking at (and for) "interest spikes" like the ones in the story had a bunch of different shapes, some with slow onset and rapid decline, some with rapid onset and rapid decline, and some which were like soft swells on a breezy afternoon at the beach.

That said, the dataset made possible by Facebook's chat stream would be even better for those sorts of investigations.

[1] http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

Re: Julie Rubicon

#53
Post is fiction. Spoilers follow.

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When I started reading this, I didn't realize it was fiction. When I got to the point where the protagonist left the end-date off a query and saw a spike, I thought it was going to be explained by falsified data and lead into a (real) accusation of providing fraudulent metrics to advertisers. It wouldn't be the first such accusation. But it turned out to be a science-fiction story with unexplained time travel in it. Oh well.

Re: Julie Rubicon

#54

Usually I read comments on HN before the article, but there were no comments when I saw the link, so I went straight to reading it. What a bizarre piece. How long did it take everyone else to realize it was fiction? For me, I did not realize until the very end -- and even then I still wasn't sure. It could just as well have been written by some delusional non-technical employee at Facebook.

When it mentions Volkswagens, if you see a spike, how do you know it's in favor or not for them. After this it seems completely ridiculous.

Re: Julie Rubicon

#55

Usually I read comments on HN before the article, but there were no comments when I saw the link, so I went straight to reading it. What a bizarre piece. How long did it take everyone else to realize it was fiction? For me, I did not realize until the very end -- and even then I still wasn't sure. It could just as well have been written by some delusional non-technical employee at Facebook.

> What a bizarre piece. How long did it take everyone else to realize it was fiction?

Longer than it would have taken if I'd never worked in analytics.

I doubt there is anyone who has ever worked on analytics software who doesn't have stories about articles with negative page views, impossible traffic spikes, or data from the future. (And in fact Facebook's APIs are some of the worst offenders for producing garbage data.)

Re: Julie Rubicon

#56
post #46

Fiction, but that was entertaining. To the author, you should probably consider writing a book in this style :)

The author did write a fiction book, Mr. Penumbra's 24 Hour Book Store. It's decent enough :)

Re: Julie Rubicon

#57
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to wonder if it was real around the point that it theorized without explanation the predictive powers of the in house tool and I was pretty convinced it was fiction about the point where they were going to start a company within a company using bitcoin. Using Facebook internal data to trade in ways no one can match isn't far fetched. Makes me wonder if Facebook should pivot to be a hedge fund based on signa…

Given that the posts can be from folks that work in the company Facebook would be trading stocks for, that would count as insider trading.

[deleted]

Re: Julie Rubicon

#58

Post is fiction. Spoilers follow. . . When I started reading this, I didn't realize it was fiction. When I got to the point where the protagonist left the end-date off a query and saw a spike, I thought it was going to be explained by falsified data and lead into a (real) accusation of providing fraudulent metrics to advertisers. It wouldn't be the first such accusation. But it turned out to be a science-fiction stor…

I read 2-3 paragraphs into this and then thought, hmm, maybe I should check the comments first.

Thank you.

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