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Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

economist.com

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Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because if we build it correctly, it won't be a person at all, and won't have a value function orthogonal to our own. Building something that can self-improve and solve problems doesn't mean we need to build something that has independent will, motivation, or values. And it's a lot safer not to.

Sure, but "an AI that's smarter than humans" implies that. I'm sure we'll build many algorithms that are better than us at specific tasks, and we already have.

Even building algorithms that are better than us at any general-purpose task still doesn't require giving those algorithms agency or independent values of their own.

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How about a ceiling as well? What's an equitable spread? In no possible way up to you to decide, thankfully. It's one thing to say "nobody should go hungry or live on the street"; we could argue about the most efficient way to go about achieving that, but it's not an unreasonable statement. It's quite another thing to say "you're not allowed to be too successful or we'll steal it from you".

It isn't up to me to decide, but as a participant in our democracy, I have a say just like you. > you're not allowed to be too successful or we'll steal it from you Well, maybe there wouldn't be a hard ceiling, but I could see the revival of the 90% tax bracket for big earners.

> Well, maybe there wouldn't be a hard ceiling, but I could see the revival of the 90% tax bracket for big earners.

That's a very entitled, might-makes-right point of view; what gives you the right to do so, other than getting a mob together with enough might?

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't up to me to decide, but as a participant in our democracy, I have a say just like you. > you're not allowed to be too successful or we'll steal it from you Well, maybe there wouldn't be a hard ceiling, but I could see the revival of the 90% tax bracket for big earners.

> Well, maybe there wouldn't be a hard ceiling, but I could see the revival of the 90% tax bracket for big earners. That's a very entitled, might-makes-right point of view; what gives you the right to do so, other than getting a mob together with enough might?

Again, I have only one vote, just like you. I don't think I have any particular right when it comes to setting policy.

But, if radical redistribution of wealth is wanted by voters, then the population can enact laws to make it happen.

I have no doubt that automation on a scale beyond what most people think is possible (and maybe desirable) is coming. Today, any talk of basic income in the US isn't going to go anywhere. However, at some point enough people are going to be out of work that they will be a big enough voting block that politicians will start restructuring the economy to make those voters happy. I'm not sure I see any other possible outcome.

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#54
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many great scientists (Einstein amongst them) get into trouble when they veer into Economics. Einstein predicted social unrest from massive unemployment due to productivity improvements. Productivity improvements help people in aggregate. The question here is will a small subset of the world accrue all the benefit from the AI productivity improvement? One answer is basic income, presumably based on taxation of the ri…

> equity based social security or welfare payments I seem to remember Bush II proposing this early in his first term. I was quite young at the time, but I remember some some stuff about "Ownership Society" and a scheme that boiled down to "let's take the social security money and invest it."

I wasn't that young at the time and maybe I'm a cynic, but what I heard was "let's take the social security money and let my campaign contributors skim off the top".

I also heard him talking about ownership in the sense everyone should own a home. Right at the peak of the housing bubble. Lots of people took a big hit.

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#55
post #24

Even though the standard of living is raised for all humans, it seems like advances in AI and automation will drastically reduce the percentage of productive members of society, in spite of educational opportunity. Improving educational opportunities (a la Udacity) is a noble idea because it levels the playing field a bit (giving the underprivileged a chance), but the end result is the same - a small number of people…

but "esteem" and "self-actualization" are really important as well. Many people fill those needs with banal things like drinking contests or sports.

You mean, as opposed to banal things like their jobs?

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#56
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many great scientists (Einstein amongst them) get into trouble when they veer into Economics. Einstein predicted social unrest from massive unemployment due to productivity improvements. Productivity improvements help people in aggregate. The question here is will a small subset of the world accrue all the benefit from the AI productivity improvement? One answer is basic income, presumably based on taxation of the ri…

> Many great scientists (Einstein amongst them) get into trouble when they veer into Economics. Einstein predicted social unrest from massive unemployment due to productivity improvements. Productivity improvements help people in aggregate. Can you please expand? I did not know of this

His own words:

https://monthlyreview.org/2009/05/01/why-socialism/

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#57
post #54
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> equity based social security or welfare payments I seem to remember Bush II proposing this early in his first term. I was quite young at the time, but I remember some some stuff about "Ownership Society" and a scheme that boiled down to "let's take the social security money and invest it."

I wasn't that young at the time and maybe I'm a cynic, but what I heard was "let's take the social security money and let my campaign contributors skim off the top". I also heard him talking about ownership in the sense everyone should own a home. Right at the peak of the housing bubble. Lots of people took a big hit.

There was talk of turning social security into private investment vehicles. (Similar to a 401K) Lots of problems with that, but the current system isn't so great either.

What I'm trying to get at here though isn't just turning people into equity investors, but specifically capturing the upside from an environment where robots do all the work and the gains are captured mostly by an oligopoly of their makers.

If the robots (or AI) are broadly created and owned, this is much less of a problem.

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many great scientists (Einstein amongst them) get into trouble when they veer into Economics. Einstein predicted social unrest from massive unemployment due to productivity improvements. Productivity improvements help people in aggregate. The question here is will a small subset of the world accrue all the benefit from the AI productivity improvement? One answer is basic income, presumably based on taxation of the ri…

If World War 2 counts as "social unrest", I'd say Einstein got à point.

World War 2 wasn't caused by too much productivity.

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many great scientists (Einstein amongst them) get into trouble when they veer into Economics. Einstein predicted social unrest from massive unemployment due to productivity improvements. Productivity improvements help people in aggregate. The question here is will a small subset of the world accrue all the benefit from the AI productivity improvement? One answer is basic income, presumably based on taxation of the ri…

When people think state owned enterprises, they think the failed USSR and communism ideal. A more recent and viable model to look at is probably some of the successful Sovereign wealth fund, like Norway, UAE, Qatar and etc.

I was thinking Singapore, but is that scalable?

Re: Google self-driving car pioneer wants to teach people how to face the future

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If World War 2 counts as "social unrest", I'd say Einstein got à point.

World War 2 wasn't caused by too much productivity.

It appears World War 2 came from fascism… which came from fed up people… because massive unemployment… because failure to handle productivity increases.

Productivity increases by itself will never cause problem. If we become 1000 times more productive overnight, we have loads of excellent solutions to handle it. Like have people work only 1 day per year, relying on voluntary service, increase material wealth like crazy…

But we've gotta admit, our society sucks at absorbing productivity increases. Just watch what will happen to professional drivers in the 10, 15 years to come. If we don't come up with something, the shock will be brutal.

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