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Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

491–500 of 520 posts

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this! Bitcoin is much more interesting as way of representing CREDIT, not MONEY. Credit is much older and much better way of representing of how humans make contracts with each other. Money is a sideline invention we did to make it possible to pay soldiers for fighting. (Soldiers are inherently bad credit risks because they kill and die for a living).

> CREDIT, not MONEY What's the difference?

If I lend you 20 bucks (money), "credit" is the belief I have that I'm going to get it back from you.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a libertarian and do not have a political agenda, but it is imaginable that certain parts of the government could be replaced with the structure like this one. I don't know how the transition could happen, but at the end, the mining in the network will be done by citizens, bitcoins will be named "bitvotes", and every citizen will mine those bitvotes, or they could be distributed fairy (one bitvote to each ci…

That is a fundamentally bad idea. Votes and "dollars", what ever your concept of dollar is, should never be the same thing.

I assume you're against all forms of lobbying, then?

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a libertarian and do not have a political agenda, but it is imaginable that certain parts of the government could be replaced with the structure like this one. I don't know how the transition could happen, but at the end, the mining in the network will be done by citizens, bitcoins will be named "bitvotes", and every citizen will mine those bitvotes, or they could be distributed fairy (one bitvote to each ci…

Voting is a solved problem. I’m not saying that the idea of using bitcoin technology to solve problems beside monetary systems is a bad idea (in fact, I think it’s a very interesting concept), but really, democracies around the world already have established and efficient voting systems that work well enough.

If what you're saying is true, then I'd like to know why Instant Runoff Voting seems so superior to binary voting schemes (like "democratic" or "republican" with the occasional "green" candidate acting usually as "democratic spoiler") and yet hasn't been widely implemented.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#494
post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but you need a trusted authority. But I probably didn't explain it well enough. I didn't mean that you would vote which politicians will rule, you would vote on concrete decisions state such make. Nowadays, you vote politicians and they make decisions, and with blockchain network, you would directly vote for such decisions, making the politicians an unnecessary layer. ;-)

I hire politicians for the exact reason that I cannot possibly become informed and make intelligent decisions on all of the issues that affect me.

You could solve that problem by reading your politician's blog (and donating of course) then voting the way they recommend on each issue.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's better positioned to move to the next better currency than Bitcoin than Bitcoin speculators? And it won't be changing, there can, are, and will likely continue to be multiple working crypto currencies each attracting a following from those who believe in its core principles. As long as they're easily exchanged for the others as they are now, they can all win and one will just be considered the reserve currency…

"Gold bugs will always like Bitcoin"... Is that like "Real Estate only goes up?" Remember that one from circa 2005? This problem really does lead to crypto currencies having no floor like Krugman points out. At some point everyone decides what the next hot crypto currency is, and suddenly Bitcoin turns into Friendster and there's a rush for the exits and the price collapses. It really does seem like cryptocurrency fa…

> Is that like "Real Estate only goes up?"

No, it's saying that Bitcoin has the feature that people who like Gold like, the supply can't be artificially inflated. That's all. Keynsian's won't like that because that means it's deflationary.

> This problem really does lead to crypto currencies having no floor like Krugman points out.

Krugman is wrong because he doesn't see the inherent value in them yet, and there is value in shopping online without giving the retailer my credit card details and without the retailer being worried about charge backs and banking fees; but he didn't see the value in the Internet either.

Brilliant people are often wrong when stepping outside their domain, and he clearly doesn't yet understand the technological advantages of crypto currencies.

He's right that deflationary currencies won't function well as currencies in the end, which is why Bitcoin could be MySpace and a better designed crypto may ultimately win, but network effects give Bitcoin the chance to fail before someone else can win. However Bitcoin need only become stable enough to be used to move money around and it'll have a ton of value to lots of people whether it's deflationary or not simply to avoid banks, fees, and chargebacks.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it doesn't. BTC isn't a good value store (or have intrinsic value) just because the infrastructure that processes it is--in a different sense of the word--valuable. If a bitcoin conferred a fraction of ownership of that infrastructure to the coin's holder, you'd have a point, but it doesn't; the holder just has the coin. The parts of the infrastructure you might actually sell are owned by someone else, and the op…

I was considering the blockchain itself as part of the infrastructure. If the [rest of the] infrastructure (i.e., the mining equipment) becomes (or is) useful, it is only inasmuch as it is a good shepherd of the blockchain. It is both the mining equipment (at any point in time) and the blockchain which make possible the use of BTC as both a storage of value and a medium of exchange. As long as there exists both a glo…

> then the individual accounts within its purview obviously have whatever values it records them as having.

I think there's a basic disconnect here about what we mean by "store of value". The simplest way to put it is that something stores value well if I can buy a predictable amount of stuff with it in the future. That the ledger does a good job of establishing that I have N bitcoins is different from telling me how much those bitcoins are actually worth.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Gold bugs will always like Bitcoin"... Is that like "Real Estate only goes up?" Remember that one from circa 2005? This problem really does lead to crypto currencies having no floor like Krugman points out. At some point everyone decides what the next hot crypto currency is, and suddenly Bitcoin turns into Friendster and there's a rush for the exits and the price collapses. It really does seem like cryptocurrency fa…

> Is that like "Real Estate only goes up?" No, it's saying that Bitcoin has the feature that people who like Gold like, the supply can't be artificially inflated. That's all. Keynsian's won't like that because that means it's deflationary. > This problem really does lead to crypto currencies having no floor like Krugman points out. Krugman is wrong because he doesn't see the inherent value in them yet, and there is v…

Can you not see yourself contradicting yourself?

You admit that some other crypto currency may win. That means that bitcoin may lose.

Lose.

LOSE

What happens when it LOSES?

Like Krugman points out, there's nothing to backstop it and no floor.

Oh right, but he's just an economist, he doesn't see the "inherent value". He just doesn't understand...

You so easily swap contexts completely between all of this "inherent value" nonsense when you're addressing Krugman, and then a marketplace of cryptocurrencies which clearly is 'libertarian' and is going to have clear winners and losers -- without, obviously, thinking that last word through very clearly.

I'm clearly going to need to load up on popcorn, this is gonna be fun to watch...

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#498
post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has actually been done. You can now do protein folding and SETI (and a bunch of GMO research) while mining. Gridcoin is working with the full cooperation of the UC Berkeley BOINC project and is compatible with your choice of dozens of research projects: http://gridcoin.us

But not for ASICs mining bitcoin, unless they have a BOINC implementation that somehow uses sha256 as its core.

Correct.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#499
post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, remember that this is a utility calculation. The cool thing about buying Xbox One now is that I can play it now . So let's say these are my options: * Buy it now for $300 and play it for 10 years * Buy it in ten years for $30 and play it then (I have no idea how much an Xbox actually costs.) So the question is whether that $270 is worth those ten years of playing it. A lot goes into that: what interesting things…

I agree with your assessment -- utility with respect to time is the first explanation I thought of as well. People (and firms) have a limited ability to anticipate or defer purchases. (I can't wait 50 years to buy a lifetime supply of food to feed myself!) You also mention that this limited ability to defer purchases in the face of deflation is what makes short bouts of deflation not catastrophic -- it is somewhat di…

The question is really what's in the average bucket of things you will put off versus the bucket you won't. One important note here is that the bucket off things you can put off is roughly proportional to the advancement of your economy; most of the goods purchased in a first world society can be put off more-or-less indefinitely. On the other hand, perhaps society's expectations for its standard of living have risen, forming a utility curve that's been shifted a bit. Another way to put that is that the worst case is that the economy runs at the level where everyone is willing to live; that's a sort of consumption floor. I'm not really sure what the answer to that is, but since I believe it's quite a bit below where we actually live, I think the deflation spiral is pretty real.

One specific observation here is that short-lived deflations may not cause much behavior change because everyone expects them to be short lived. And changing your behavior is hard work, and your standard of living is sticky; you don't adapt right way, even if you're a business. Easier to just ride it out. But as the deflation period drags on, that consumption floor starts to fall (everything here is mutable!) as you get acclimated to the new normal. Since consumer confidence actually lags the other economic metrics a bit, an economy has a bit of time to pop out of deflation before the spiral really sets in. On the other hand, it makes it worse when it does.

It's also important to look at context: in that empirical evidence, we should note that the central banks were fighting deflation as hard as they could withe somewhat limited tools they had, so it isn't a spiral in a vacuum. Even then, Japan lost an entire decade of economic progress to deflation.

On specific items like video games consoles and computing power, I'd guess it's some combination of a) the utility of the items actually being quite compelling at their launch prices and b) a trick of psychology: in 10 years, there will be new, better video games and you'll want those instead, so you don't even really consider buying it later. (b) is irrational, because the console you're buying now is either worth it or not now; you don't actually have to buy it later at all. But it strikes me as very human. I think public has largely just accepted the premise the technology costs a certain amount; it just looks forward to having new features that fall into its locked-in price range.

On the other hand, one way to think about the technology stuff is that perhaps it really has held back a lot of the industry. For example, perhaps the price of the Xbox is artificially low at launch time because otherwise everyone would just wait for it to come down anyway; it's competing with its future self. The thought experiment is to ask how different purchasing decisions would be if an industry-wide announcement came out saying, "Moore's law is over. This is as good as computers get. They're going to cost X and do Y for the foreseeable future." Because I suspect a lot of people do put off technology purchases, waiting for everything to get better and cheaper. The complement of early adoption.

I should caveat that this is basically all speculation on my part; I don't actually know anything about any of this stuff.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#500
post #494
post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hire politicians for the exact reason that I cannot possibly become informed and make intelligent decisions on all of the issues that affect me.

You could solve that problem by reading your politician's blog (and donating of course) then voting the way they recommend on each issue.

Fair enough, but isn't it just a matter of granularity at that point? How many things do I want to be voting on every day? 1 thing? 10 things? 100?
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