491–500 of 559 posts
> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?
These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
And don't forget about the kids and what possibly could happen maybe someday!
I can understand them wanting to ban Polymarket et al but it's hard to implement unless you ban all use of cryptocurrency. Once you've done the converting fiat currency to some sort of crypto, all the other transaction can happen anonymously offshore. I've mucked about on Polymarket a bit including betting on Kamala to win of all things.
Imagine your neighbour the alcoholic gambling addict having to learn to use cryptocurrency and VPNs and then having to file taxes in case any substantial winnings (from illegal gambling)...
Betfair doesn't present itself as anything other than what it is: a gambling exchange where the punters make the book. In my 10+ years time of using it they despite some occasionally shoddily worded markets they have only properly screwed up a market twice (The Australian Open in 2022 when Djokovic was denied entry to Australia and Betfair basically forgot the winners market was cross matched when they went to remove him and the 2020 Presidential election where they suspended the market when Trump went to hospital with Covid despite the fact the market rules said that the market would still settle if any participant died and obviously most people had been taking into account that both candidates being mega ancient whilst a global pandemic was happening might be a factor). Betfair is boring, staid and reliable.
Compare that to Kalshi and Polymarket who do everything they can to pretend they are not gambling platforms. It's kind of gross.
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In the early 2000s major sports didn't even want to run "enjoy a vacation to Las Vegas" ads because of the loose connection to gambling. Now they encourage users to bet as part of the commentary.
You know how a clear sign of a “bad neighborhood” is when you see a large percentage of payday loan buildings, liquor stores, gun stores, etc? I see the percentage of advertising devoted to gambling to be a similar bellwether to the decline of my whole country. And it’s getting worse all the time. I can’t turn on the tv, look at billboards on the freeway, watch a sporting event, or even walk down a supermarket checko…
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> Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. What jurisdiction are we painting with that broad brush? This is far from universally true, even in the US.
Could you provide an example?
I can understand them wanting to ban Polymarket et al but it's hard to implement unless you ban all use of cryptocurrency. Once you've done the converting fiat currency to some sort of crypto, all the other transaction can happen anonymously offshore. I've mucked about on Polymarket a bit including betting on Kamala to win of all things.
Interesting comments here. I'd rather have prediction markets than casinos or sports betting services, because in the latter, you're playing again the house which can and will ban you for winning too much, while prediction markets are simply market makers taking a fee. Prediction markets are also regulated by the CFTC as they're futures contracts technically.
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I don’t think they allow bets regarding if someone is going to die or not?
Sounds like this could easily be worked around by placing a bet on something that will definitely happen as a result of a death, i.e. "bet $X on whether Iran will close the strait".
I can understand them wanting to ban Polymarket et al but it's hard to implement unless you ban all use of cryptocurrency. Once you've done the converting fiat currency to some sort of crypto, all the other transaction can happen anonymously offshore. I've mucked about on Polymarket a bit including betting on Kamala to win of all things.