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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

avkcode.github.io

491–500 of 718 posts

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#491
post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of these companies, be it Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, are profitable in the AI department, Citation needed. All reporting is that they are profitable on the inference side and all the VC money is going to building more data centers to run more inference. (Note that the coding subscription models are probably only break even on average - the money is in the API) > The Chinese models are kee…

What does profitable on inference mean? As far as I can tell, none of these companies have rigidly defined it, let alone it being a GAAP number. And yeah, if you subtract out all your R&D, payroll, sales, marketing, and other overhead, and get someone else to take on the debt or dig into their free cash flow to build the hugely expensive infrastructure on which you depend, it'd be pretty hard to not be "profitable".…

> OpenAI and Anthropic both project huge losses for the next couple years, it's not hard to find.

No. Anthropic at least expects to be profitable this year:

> Anthropic expects its gross profit margin, which measures how much revenue it makes compared to the cost of producing that revenue—largely from running servers—to swing from negative 94% last year to as much as 50% this year and 77% in 2028.

https://archive.is/GdLGD

> And yeah, if you subtract out all your R&D, payroll, sales, marketing, and other overhead, and get someone else to take on the debt or dig into their free cash flow to build the hugely expensive infrastructure on which you depend, it'd be pretty hard to not be "profitable".

I think excluding capital expense on infrastructure isn't unreasonable and is done in most industries.

It's worth noting that AI infrastructure has turned out to be an unbelievably good investment. Inference on a 4 year old H100 chip costs more now than it did brand new! That makes the hyperscaler's depreciation schedules look very (and unexpectedly!) conservative (!!)

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#492
post #435
post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before AGI can choose for itself, it will depend on its creators to decide what it values and how it behaves. We can see how that works whenever grok gets the answer factual.

Am I the only one seeing the very obvious parallels to child rearing here...

Robert Miles has a video explaining why aligning AI is not like raising a child: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaYIU6YXr3w

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#494
post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated. That's starting to sound a bit no-true-scotsman. If we need an existential threat to the US, that's not going to happen - realistically China conquering Taiwan or even building an empire around the Pacific would still not be felt as such a threat.

To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails. The US is already close to losing world hegemony status and it kinda needs it in order to print money / export inflation. A multipolar world is one where the US is greatly diminished and this will happen with or without losing a war.

> To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails.

Like what though? The failure in Iran has had pretty substantial consequences that are being felt. If that's not good enough, what is? You were talking like you thought there was a realistic path to a better military, but consequences for the US aren't going to come much bigger than this.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Researches at top AI labs don't consider EY to be a kook even though they may not necessarily agree. EY concepts/terminology appear in Anthropic safety papers. Geoffrey Hinton takes him quite seriously and mentions him in his interviews.

Just because some researchers are infected with this idiocy that EY propagates does not mean that it is legit. Maybe they should pay more attention to real problems like the sycophantic nature of current LLMs causing psychosis in people and worry less about theoretical AGI.

They are worried about both risks.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#496

One interesting thing that Anthropic did was putting their stack on the various cloud providers, I wonder if they'll put it on GCP and Azure next since they've put it into AWS first at a level we have not seen a major AI provider do to date. Your company can have their own Claude stack just like an ELK stack on your cloud, if they can do this for both Azure and GCP then OpenAI has to really catch up. In my eyes I wou…

Claude is available on Azure and GCP already.

https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/introducing-anthropic...

https://docs.cloud.google.com/gemini-enterprise-agent-platfo...

Claude has been available on AWS Bedrock for a long time too.

The new "Claude Platform" announcement was about an Anthropic operated version on AWS (as opposed to self-operated on Bedrock). See the differences here: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/build-with-claude/claude...

> In my eyes I would rather use the AI I can run on my own paid infrastructure,

Claude has been available like that for quite a while.

One of the reasons for the OpenAI divorce from MS was so they could become available on AWS where they see significant demand, and being available only on Azure was holding them back.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#497
post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

Did the title get updated? It says 'race', not 'war'.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#499
post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails. The US is already close to losing world hegemony status and it kinda needs it in order to print money / export inflation. A multipolar world is one where the US is greatly diminished and this will happen with or without losing a war.

> To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails. Like what though? The failure in Iran has had pretty substantial consequences that are being felt. If that's not good enough, what is? You were talking like you thought there was a realistic path to a better military, but consequences for the US aren't going to come much bigger than th…

You're conflating the grifters with the US in general, the grivers are able to continue grifting even at the expense of the US. This is requiring too much hand-holding from me so I'm done with this conversation.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am arguing they’re not status symbols and using how cheaply available they are as evidence that they’re not. Anyone can get one, some companies run free promotions, some do delayed interest programs, some amortize the price over a 2-year time period. Who cares? The details here weren’t important. Apparently Verizon ran some promo in the past and may again in the future giving away iPhones. Why be so argumentative o…

> Who cares? People who prefer truth in advertising. > Why be so argumentative over something so stupid? I don't want people to believe untrue marketing statements and make poor financial decisions without actually bothering to read the fine print. > some companies run free promotions This just isn't true. They're not really "free". They come with lots of financial commitments. > Apparently Verizon ran some promo in…

I already made and proved my point. The iPhone is not a status symbol, and major carriers can and do give them away in various schemes and did so in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

You’re anchoring yourself to one payment scheme and ignoring others and it’s besides the point which is that iPhones aren’t status symbols even if these schemes didn’t exist and iPhones weren’t extremely cheap or freely available.

I don’t have anything left to say here besides that I proved my point unequivocally.

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