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How the AI Bubble Bursts

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Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#491

Post by d2ssa »

fragmede wrote: post #479
niam wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't discount this as a possibility but my impression is that the OpenAI brand isn't very sticky. Internet Explorer being pre-installed on Windows devices didn't prevent it from being demolished by newcomer Chrome throughout the 2010s. Now we're looking at a product that's even less integrated, and whose value is exposed through universal interfaces (human language, images, etc.). If OpenAI succeeds, I imagine tha…

For people that use ChatGPT the same way you do, yeah it's not. For people in the throes of AI psychosis who've named their ChatGPT and have a deep relationship with it, switching to a newer model from OpenAI is an issue, nevermind switching to a different model from a different company.

Most people dont give a hoot about that, they have much more interesting stuff going on in life.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#492

Post by d2ssa »

rvz wrote: post #114
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things can be true at the same time: - AI is a genuinely transformative technology on par with the internet and on track to probably surpass the smartphone - The inflated valuations, the circular flows of money (or "money"), and the financial cup-shell game mean that the players of the game are all a few bad weeks away from catastrophe. This is, of course, nothing new for SV -- but the scale this time is new. Som…

Yes. Both things can be true at the same time. The question is when will the frontier AI companies turn a profit on said transformative technology since other than NVIDIA and big tech, it is losing them tens of billions and who will survive a crash when it comes. This is when you know you are in a bubble when people with a clear financial incentive are going on to newsletters, podcasts and posting extremely outlandis…

Agreed. People like Huang are doing too much weird stuff now, its obvious.

THe game is up - huge returns are not coming but some areas will benefit from LLMs like Software Engineers. Continued competition and reinvestment among the players will yield good outcomes imo.

Investors who didnt sell their stock in time are going to be p1ssed though. Wonder how the fall out will be managed.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#493

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

pydry wrote: post #487
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One idea I've heard is prototype-first design reviews. If the cost of code genuinely trends to zero, there's no reason why most technical disagreements about product functionality couldn't come with prototypes to illustrate each side of the debate. Today, that's not always practical between token costs and usage limits.

What if the agent fucks up the better approach but does a good job of the worst approach?

Then hopefully the reviewers will notice that the first prototype's flaws are correctable. Sometimes they won't, and they'll end up making a bad decision, just as they sometimes make bad decisions today with no prototypes to look at. But having prototypes allows for a lot of debates that are today vague and meandering to be reduced to "which of these assertions at the end of this integration test do you think is the correct behavior?".

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#494

Post by d2ssa »

lstodd wrote: post #248
rvz wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Both things can be true at the same time. The question is when will the frontier AI companies turn a profit on said transformative technology since other than NVIDIA and big tech, it is losing them tens of billions and who will survive a crash when it comes. This is when you know you are in a bubble when people with a clear financial incentive are going on to newsletters, podcasts and posting extremely outlandis…

> The amount of engineers becoming .. This is good. It's how you know they lacked the intellectual rigour required to be engineers in the first place and thus never were.

This may sound like a bizarre comment, but, one could argue collusion re. wages back in the day was a good thing - it kept the people who weren't all that passionate about it out.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#495

Post by d2ssa »

atomicnumber3 wrote: post #365
logravia wrote: post #350

The thing I am struggling with is where is the impact of LLM tools, especially given the massive increase in token consumption from 2025 to now and the saturated presence of LLMs everywhere. Naively speaking, I have so many expectations for the impact of this tech. I'd expect a noticeable uptick in applications published on Google, Apple and Microsoft app stores. I'd also expect an uptick of games published to Steam.…

Programming is a necessary but not sufficient condition for software products to exist. So while the programming has to be good, so too do many other things, like product vision, product management, project management, and of course there still needs to be feedback between all of the above so that engineering isn't implementing a misunderstood version of the product and that product isn't asking for 5 years and a PhD…

Going faster only works WHEN you know EXACTLY (or close to it) what you want.

Going faster when experimenting? Nah you actually need a mix of slow and fast, and mostly slow stuff up-front.

There's a fundamental misunderstanding of how people actually do stuff imo - its akin to force fitting a square peg in a round hole. Im sure many are hoping its just a 'your organisation is designed wrong' problem. I doubt it though.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#496

Post by fcarraldo »

reverius42 wrote: post #483
fcarraldo wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Software is or was one of the few remaining arenas wherein a person can find a consistently Software salary inflation and expansion has made this the case. Tech’s accessibility to the educated has accelerated gentrification massively, rising up prices on rent and food. While the statement is correct, tech’s contribution to income inequality is part of the issue. If you’ve lived in Austin or Chicago (especially Aust…

I don't think there are enough well-paid tech workers to affect things like the (national) market for food. Local rent markets are at least partly explained by this; I agree that the $3M houses near Palo Alto, CA are because of Big Tech salaries, but not the price of ground beef.

Not at the nationally owned chain grocery store, but at local establishments it’s certainly an issue and prices out longtime residents who don’t work in this industry.

Rent prices push everything up in the local market. Housing rents impact business rents in an area, as well as what the business’ owners and employees need to maintain their own lifestyles. People who live there now can pay more and will, so prices go up. But the local shop owner isn’t getting rich, they’re still struggling as everything around them rises.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#497

Post by d2ssa »

pydry wrote: post #488
HDThoreaun wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many examples of doctors misdiagnosing a wide variety of things, which is largely the point here. People think of doctors as infallible when that is not even close to true. Im certainly not saying fire all the radiologists, just advising an open mind when the actual literature starts saying that LLMs are as good as doctors in some areas.

There are many examples of people into homeopathy, chinese medicine and even witchcraft using an identical (not similar, identical) argument to the one you just used to push it.

Legit that dude seems like a nutter. lol'd hard at "Im semi tapped in to the medical literature community."

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#498

Post by d2ssa »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #469
checkyoursudo wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems ripe for a joke akin to "how was the food?" "bad, but at least the portions were big!" Like, "how was the medical advice" "worse than a doc's, but at least it was cheaper!"

Well the thing is that it often isnt worse than a doctor's, thats the point of the research here. I get that sounds crazy, just watch out for the coming literature I guess. A significant portion of americans detest the medical industry and deeply dislike going to the doctor so I dont even think the product needs to be very good to disrupt the way the system works, just different and accessible is likely enough. Funni…

"deeply dislike going to the doctor"

No you are not capturing the trade off at all. And frankly you clearly have an inherent agenda implicit in your posts, that's clear to see.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#499

Post by joquarky »

smt88 wrote: post #341
Zardoz84 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't paid anything to YouTube and I don't see any ads. Because I block ads.

Do you feel good about YouTube spending money on hosting and video producers spending time/money on content that you're paying nothing for? How is that sustainable?

The categorical imperative has been put on life support since 2016 at the latest.

Everything is smash and dash now. And nobody with the means to change it cares about externalities anymore.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#500

Post by ratrace »

aurareturn wrote: post #92

This is an awful article. I don't know how it reached #1 on HN. Bottom line is that H100 prices are near 3 year highs, A100s are still profitable to run, B200 prices are increasing, no one has enough compute. Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, AWS, Azure are all compute constrained. Every single one of them said so publicly. Neo clouds are telling customers they're all sold out now and you even have to book compute in…

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