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OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

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Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4 came out 3 years ago and you can run comparable models for 1% of the cost nowadays. That is not 2x efficiency. That's two orders of magnitude in end-to-end compute efficiency.

How do we know how much it costs? Or is this just based off the token pricing?

That's the bingo of the question... The entire argument is token pricing, which can be subsidized.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#492
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've subscribed to a few AI tools for the last 3 years now. I'm someone who almost never subscribes to anything. I'm sure that $50b has my money in there somewhere.

Yep same, I'd sooner starve than cut my Anthropic sub

Man, they really got good at hitting that dopamine button, huh?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s legal because both sides have armies of lawyers and are voluntarily entering into contracts where each party gets consideration. How someone can compare the above situation to a person getting a payday loan to put a roof over their head or food on their plate is beyond me. The “it’s like ” is a tired trope.

Come on, calling a round of vendor financing (which is what the NVIDIA money is) "funding" is eggregiously misleading. The only new money entering the sector from this is SoftBank's stake.

They might have dressed up the wording, but the details are all there for anyone who wants to objectively look at the deal. It is a group of two executives making a non coerced deal and disclosing the required information to investors.

Might be a stupid gamble, but it's not akin to a loan shark shaking down a hungry, cold person for life's essentials.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#494
ChatGPT needs to catch up hard, for me their model is unusable and I cancelled my subscription 5-6 months ago, so to me this post is hot air. I need to see results, going back to try Codex 5.2, then 5.3, downloading their new desktop client, their VS code extension, their weird browser, is time I wish I had back.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#495
Lot of skepticism about OpenAI's survival. I am a user of both Claude (max) and Codex (plus). Some neutral points.

- Anthropic owes to AWS for their enterprise growth. Yes, their own talent as well.

- AWS investing for a purpose - solving problems with multi-agent systems - "exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI Frontier, which enables organizations to build, deploy, and manage teams of AI agents.". I think the multi-agent landscape will be production-ready in 2026 for solving really complex problems. AWS saw something in Codex and OpenAI's models.

- On Circular investments - if you make $100B of your revenue from ecosystem of players who spend $50B on your infra... where else would you go?

I work for another cloud provider, not AWS.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#496
post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re just describing how it’s circular. It’s like Toys R Us not having enough money to pay Mattel for Barbie dolls and telling Mattel they can have partial ownership of the company if they just supply them with some more toys. But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. Toys R Us continues selling toys faster and faster despite a lack of profit, m…

OK, so absolutely good faith here what is the end game? Obviously, there’s a scenario of super power AI and then it’s a matter of continuing course. Electricity and silicon. What if you are right, and the scaling doesn’t work. It is too much power, time, hardware to improve… does openAI fold? Do they just actual use the models they have? Does everyone just decide that AI didn’t work and go back 5 years like it didn’t…

Growth decoupled from labor costs

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#497
post #208
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they are going to collapse. But it was only a couple of years ago that many people thought OpenAI had a big (some thought insurmountable) lead in a race to dominate a winner take all markee. Some people did correctly state that OpenAI had no moat in those days so credit there where it's due. Now it's looking like a competitive blood bath where ever increasing levels of investment is needed just to main…

A competitive bloodbath plus OpenAI has investment valuing it like it will achieve agi rather than (merely) being a huge advancement in computing, but not a fundamental rewriting of how all work is done.

$730b isn't being priced like they will achieve agi

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#498
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If OpenAI folded, you’d have the one LLM company that consumers know suddenly gone. Which seems like the opposite of an AI success story. People will start looking at valuations more carefully. Investors will get jittery. Spending on GPUs will drop, as will NVidia’s stock price. I’m not sure that NVidia views OpenAI as replaceable.

If OAI folded, there would also be a sudden tsunami of recent Nvidia hardware on the used market.

Specifically built for training and inference and not much else, and also they age like milk. I don’t see how that helps anyone.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#499
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once they "reach AGI", will they have a big party on a carrier with a "Mission Accomplished" banner?

[flagged]

I buy my software by weight! Give me the biggest one you have, please. I'm talking hundreds of klocs.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#500
post #72

> Amazon will start with an initial $15 billion investment, followed by another $35 billion in the coming months when certain conditions are met. Those conditions are an IPO or reaching AGI [1]. Nvidia and SofBank will pay in installments. Also very interesting that Microsoft decided to not invest in this round. A PR statement was made though [2]. [1] https://americanbazaaronline.com/2026/02/26/amazon-to-invest... [2…

Has OpenAI laid out the specific definition of what an AGI is for this case? The one from their mission is quite vague and the general community has nothing close to a universal common definition... which means they will most likely just define it as what they already have when the timing is right.

> Has OpenAI laid out the specific definition of what an AGI is for this case?

AGI is an IPO.

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