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Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

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Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#491
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People looked at how the cost of wind and solar went down and made a assumption that green hydrogen would follow. The reasoning was that the cost of green hydrogen was energy, and thus at some point green hydrogen would be too cheap to meter. The whole energy plan of central/northen Europe, especially Germany, was built for the last several decades on the idea that they would combine wind, solar and cheap natural gas…

Sweden has very little natural gas in its energy mix: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-sou... I highly doubt that hydrogen heating was ever considered. It's usually pushed by the gas lobby (since most hydrogen comes from gas), and Sweden doesn't have a strong gas lobby.

Most of the current energy production in Sweden was built starting 50 years ago, which can be seen in the graph. Since the early 1990s the combination of hydro power and nuclear has had an almost static production rate, and hydro power in particular has been maxed out. Oil was and is still used as the reserve energy, through new plants currently being built are based on natural gas rather than oil. The political statement is that the goal is that bio fuels should be used, but that the mix will be based on the market and the economical viability of different compatible fuels.

The green party has been pushing the green hydrogen goals for decades. Use google translate on https://www.mp.se/politik/energi/ or look at archive.org for historical goals. https://www.mp.se/just-nu/mer-el-och-gron-baskraft/ is more of the same.

If you want something more official, here is a discussion within the Swedish government and by the largest political party: https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/webb-tv/video/interpellationsdeb...

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many jurisdictions require that commercial drivers take a 30 minute break every 4 hours. Those that don't should. Those stops make battery trucking feasible. And if you want to stop for 5 minutes instead of 30 you can use battery swapping solutions like the one Janus uses. Batteries are feasible for long distance trucking today. Green Hydrogen trucking uses 3X as much electricity as using it directly. Trucking's bigg…

Using mandated breaks for recharging heavy trucks isn't actually helpful in much of the world. Maybe it is in parts of Western Europe. The problem is that those mandated breaks are mandated and happen (with a small amount of wiggle room) wherever the truck happens to be at that moment. Rolling out enough charging infrastructure to make that work is an even more immense challenge than the already massive challenge of…

  > Imagine the cost of installing 1MW chargers on, say, half the wide spots on every highway.
Do those spots have lighting? If so, a significant portion of the work has already been done. Even if the electrical wiring must be supplemented or replaced, just having already the subinfrastructure to snake high voltage wiring up there is the major hurdle.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So tires with 2/32nds will have better grip in the rain than warmed up fresh ones? They just get better until they pop? That must be the reason why race cars only use heavily worn tires instead of fresh ones when they race. Engine lubricant is better at 5,000mi than 1mi? You only bother buying heavily used motor oil and tires right? After all they perform so much better. And springs and shocks are perfect examples of…

Mold release needs to be rubbed off. And the bead needs a few weeks to harden. That's why the tire people tell you to go easy on new tires. As for other stuff, work on cars for few decades and you will learn which parts are more reliable once proven than when brand new, which need time before being pushed to limits.

> As for other stuff, work on cars for few decades

That's the experience I'm drawing from when I point out that "virtually no other part degrades in performance the moment you use it" isn't based in reality. Everything is constantly wearing out. Anything rubbing on another thing, any fluid being pushed through a hole, anything that might be reacting with another thing, its all slowly getting more and more out of spec. And when it gets more and more out of spec, its performance gets worse. You might not immediately notice it, that performance might not be in the go go kind of performance, but it isn't working as well as it used to.

Are you really going to tell me a car with a couple hundred thousand miles on it running all original parts (assuming they didn't literally break apart yet) is likely to be anywhere near the same performance as when the car had 200 miles on it? Its not. Its almost like there's a reason why mileage is considered when people price cars. The suspension isn't going to keep the wheels as well planted, the cylinders likely don't have the same compression, those fuel injectors are likely tired and aren't spraying optimally, that coolant pump is worn down and barely able to pump coolant anymore, your timings are likely not optimal anymore due to slack in the timing chain or belt, your spark plugs aren't making as full or reliable of spark, etc.

If your response is "well you would have replaced those by now"...well, why would you have to do that? Because they...had their performance reduce over the life of the part?

And even then, a part of that break-in period of those parts is the part's performance actively changing over the life of the part with pieces of the part literally degrading, just pretty quickly and positively for performance as opposed to negatively. That positive slope of performance change is a pretty early hump though, otherwise as I mentioned you'd be taking me up for ensuring all your tires are near-bald (but not quite, they haven't actually failed yet!) all the time and you'd be dumpster diving for the good stuff out behind your auto parts store.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#494
post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe most EVs in the wild, but no way for EVs being sold today. There are only 5 cars on this list below 200: https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-cons... , and more than half above 300.

"Access Denied You don't have permission to access " http://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consu... " on this server." But I mean, you say that but if you test a car advertised as having 200 miles real-world performance then in practical terms that's about 120 miles. You might get 200 miles if you're driving in a perfectly straight line on a perfectly flat motorway at a steady speed.

That's... weird? Maybe it's blocked in your country? The link opens just fine for me.

Those were tested numbers, not advertised though. I don't see how you'd get a drop from 200 to 120 miles, that's a 40% drop. Maybe in a gasoline powered car, but EVs can regeneratively break, so I don't think it'd make that much of a difference.

Reading some more, there are a handful of different ratings. the old European one: NEDC, the new European one: WLTP, the US EPA, and China's CLTC.

Generally the ratings from lowest to highest go EPA, WLTP, NEDC, then CLTC. The EPA rating is just a tad high I've read when you look at fast highway driving (e.g., 75 MPH), but should be within ballpark range.

I think you're under estimating the range of modern EVs.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but if the economics of hydrogen motors worked out for planes and shipping, the argument is that it would also economically work out for cars.

Is suspect large trucks may eventually move to hydrogen, but smaller passenger vehicles will stay on batteries. The nature of hydrogen containment favors larger capacity, on account of better volume to surface area ratios.

Perhaps, but the larger question is whether the price of hydrogen itself can be sufficiently reduced. $36/kg is not justifiable for distance trucking or planes. If the price of hydrogen dropped sufficiently, then there's more demand to build hydrogen infrastructure, which increases demand for hydrogen in smaller vehicles, etc. in a positive feedback loop.

That theory didn't play out, mostly because the price of electrics kept dropping year after year, undercutting any appeal in early investment in hydrogen.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#496
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet, most of the world has had 3 phase (400V phase to phase) for ages. At the wall.

I don't know why you prefixed with "Yet" when I clearly spelt out the trade-offs and contrasts in distribution between H2 and electricity. The Mirai goes from empty to full in 5 minutes or less - which compares very well with fossil-fuel burners. Now that every OEM has abandoned battery-swapping, how fast can EV batteries be safely charged with the said 3 phases? How long were the charging time when the Mirai was deb…

>with "Yet" when I clearly spelt out the trade-offs

It was with regard that 800V was the driving factor, it'd be possible to have 'fast' charging earlier with existing infrastructure, even home.

>be safely charged with the said 3 phases?

The limiting factor for charging would be charging current in lots of cases. Getting 60% of 75kWh battery, it's 45kWh to charge in 20mins, the output should be ~150kW (90% efficiency) or 325A (on 400v), 4x 12-15mm wires.

Note about 'home' charging - three phase 32A is widely available domestically or around 6-8h to fully charge

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#497
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

H2 from electrolysis is wildly expensive. H2 from natural gas is more affordable. Irrelevant. It seems like everyone who argues against H2 is stuck on "now". Had that been the case with battery powered cars, they'd have never got off of the ground. Batteries were terrible, wildly expensive, extremely unreliable. It's only been the immense research poured into them, that has brought their costs down. Meanwhile, the co…

What I don't understand is why we would use H2. It's not like batteries are not getting better all the time. Not just the getting H2 for a good price but the whole system seems so much more complicated than just using a battery. What is it that H2 can do so much better that we would even spend the time and money to develop better solutions? Tell me what is the killer feature? Because it must be a really killer featur…

What I don't understand is why we would use H2.

You're asking questions that were answered in the very post you responded to. You're also simply inventing costs, such as 50% power loss.

What is the precise cost? You don't know. If you research the precise cost, my post discusses "what about the future after research", but this upsets you too.. for, researching things is a waste, you say.

(Even though you realise h2 is used elsewhere, and any improvements would help those industries?!)

For power, a real world example is that charging a car, tends to result in ~15% power loss. Some is converted to heat. There is also power loss in keeping the battery warm, when it's cold out (-20C). There is power loss when it is very hot outside, when draining the battery too. There are also transmission costs related to power infrastructure, upwards of 15%. When generating h2, the stored gas is simply transported as is, 30% plus loss of gas seems unlikely.

Batteries also age, and as they do, they are less and less efficient at discharge/charging. They lose range:

https://www.slashgear.com/2008627/tesla-owners-reported-batt...

Losing significant capacity is unhelpful for range. Further (same article), most car companies recommend not full charging on a regular basis, to extend battery life. So you lose range over time, and you're not really supposed to charge to full. Great. So much for that range!?

You ignored my comments on recycling, by simply saying there aren't many batteries to recycle?! This is an absurd response, absolutely absurd. The point is adoption, and every car requires recycling at end of life. We're comparing car tech side by side, and your response is "well there's only a few of these horribly polluting battery cars!". What? Recycling a horribly polluting tech is just that. It's amazing how the most environmentally conscious among us, simple ignore that electric cars are cesspools of 1000s of pounds of polluting materials.

Lastly h2 works perfectly right now. It is useful right now. It has range as long as electric cars.

These are the sort of arguments that are constantly leveled against h2. Ones without any real research, with made up figures, and not comparing battery tech in the same light. Ones ignoring the downsides.

If people had this attitude when modern battery based cars appeared on the market, no one would have tried a single one.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#498
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

H2 from electrolysis is wildly expensive. H2 from natural gas is more affordable. Irrelevant. It seems like everyone who argues against H2 is stuck on "now". Had that been the case with battery powered cars, they'd have never got off of the ground. Batteries were terrible, wildly expensive, extremely unreliable. It's only been the immense research poured into them, that has brought their costs down. Meanwhile, the co…

You raise dying some good points, but hydrogen is really hard to store. It leaks out of everything. You have to very carefully design three containment vessel in order for it not to go wrong.

A statement predicated upon truth, but exaggerated and expanded with everty repeated retelling.

It's a solved problem. It's not an issue.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#499
post #439
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is only one car in that database that has even close to a 700km range on long trips, and that is only under perfect conditions. As with any car, you don't wait until out of fuel to recharge. Instead, you seek to do so well before. These pages at least understand a little of that, and cite a real-world range under perfect conditions of 450km before recharging, with a range of 300km afterwards. Yet these figures…

> I often have circumstances where I drive 1600km a day. Do you not do stops? The ranges I've shown include a 15min stop to recharge. Anyway, I used to do such trips regularly. Covered over 100k km like that. I still did stops every ~400km because a man's gotta eat and, more importantly, wee. Also sleep, because after a few close calls caused by 18h+ of driving I figured it makes more sense to find a hotel after 1200…

Do you not do stops? The ranges I've shown include a 15min stop to recharge.

The ranges you showed were inaccurate, for the reasons I cited, including 22 minutes to charge under only special circumstances, with super special very rare chargers.

When I stop to refuel a car, I put fuel in and drive through. I urinate often on the side of the road, or (what takes 2 minutes) while the car pump runs.

Driving 1600km is under 12 hours driving, including those stops. No I'm not tired or lacking in focus at the end of that time. It's only 12 hours.

You'd need to recharge three times time make that range, or 22 minutes * 3 plus the fact (which you are ignoring) that you can't drive where ever you want and get that speed of charging. No way.

If you think driving for a few hours is dangerous, you are completely out of it.

This is the problem with these discussions. People sugar coat all the issues, and pretend they don't exist.

And this isn't even a conversation about "use fossil fuels". Oh no. This is "you'd better use MY green tech, or you're nuts! and I don't want you to even try another tech, how dare you!"

The more options we have, the better.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#500
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs take forever to charge, rendering long trips unrealistic. They are not cheaper long term, for they rely upon thousands of pounds of heavy batteries. If they go further now, that is not a given down the road. Were you to employ this logic when electric cars first came out, there wouldn't be a single one on the road. It's only through trillions of research dollars, that current battery tech is where it is. But sure…

Pumping gases is not really fast. That goes for H2 or natural gas. It pumps slowly as to not overwhelm the tank and it needs time to equalize after the pump. Also connecting the nozzle is much more of a hassle because it needs to be a tight seal. Not remotely comparable to pumping gasoline. Apart from that a modern BEV can charge pretty fast. Just enough time to get a snack and eat it.

You've been told why that time is longer than you think, and why it hurts long distance travel. Ignoring that in your reply isn't helpful.

This conversation is about R&D too. Batteries used to take forever to charge. They're better than they were. But I guess h2 can never improve, ever? And all these made up "hassles", oh no, you have to plug the nozzle in right? How tiresome! And I guess they can't insulate the handle? And the speed, well it takes hours to pump? All made up problems.

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