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The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

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Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#491

Post by endgame »

nandomrumber wrote: post #474
skissane wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s much more true for Nixon in 1968 than Morrison in 2019 Because the US has a “hard” two party system - third party candidates have very little hope, especially at the national level; voting for a third party is indistinguishable from staying home, as far as the outcome goes, with some rather occasional exceptions But Australia is different - Australia has a “soft” two party system - two-and-a-half major parties…

Also, there is nothing centre-right about Susan Ley. She is the leftest left leaning leader of the Liberal party I’ve ever had the misfortune of having to live through. She was absolutely on board with this recent Hitlerian “anti-hate” legislation that was rammed through with no public consultation. Okay, that’s a bit uncharitable. We had 48 hours.

And the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security definitely gave the literal thousands of submissions due consultation before recommending the original, un-split bill pass.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#493

Post by lunatuna »

ericmcer wrote: post #93

Great article, super fun. > In 2025, 1.1 million layoffs were announced. Only the sixth time that threshold has been breached since 1993. Over 55,000 explicitly cited AI. But HBR found that companies are cutting based on AI's potential, not its performance. The displacement is anticipatory. You have to wonder if this was coming regardless of what technological or economic event triggered it. It is baffling to me that…

I don’t think a lot of people here have been in the typists room or hung out with the secretaries. There were a lot of people taking care of all the things going and this has been downloaded and further downloaded.

There was a time I didn’t have to do my expenses. I had someone just know where I was and who I was working for and and took care of it. We talked when there was something that didn’t make sense. Thanks to computers I’m doing it. Meaningless for sure.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#494

Post by ubixar »

The most interesting finding isn't that hyperbolic growth appears in "emergent capabilities" papers - it's that actual capability metrics (MMLU, tokens/$) remain stubbornly linear.

The singularity isn't in the machines. It's in human attention.

This is Kuhnian paradigm shift at digital speed. The papers aren't documenting new capabilities - they're documenting a community's gestalt switch. Once enough people believe the curve has bent, funding, talent, and compute follow. The belief becomes self-fulfilling.

Linear capability growth is the reality. Hyperbolic attention growth is the story.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#495

Post by hyperadvanced »

huslage wrote: post #391
ElevenLathe wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO this is a symptom of the falling rate of profit, especially in the developed world. If truly productivity enhancing investment is effectively dead (or, equivalently, there is so much paper wealth chasing a withering set of profitable opportunities for investment), then capital's only game is to chase high valuations backed by future profits, which means playing the Keynesian beauty contest for keeps. This in turn…

Profit is a myth of epistemic collapse at this point. Productivity gains are also mythical and probably just anecdotal in the moment.

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding but a lot of people (ok, well, a few, but you know) make a lot of money on relatively mundane stuff. Technocapitalism’s Accursed Share is sacrificing wealth for myth making about its own future.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#496

Post by rlt »

gojomo wrote: post #18

"It had been a slow Tuesday night. A few hundred new products had run their course on the markets. There had been a score of dramatic hits, three-minute and five-minute capsule dramas, and several of the six-minute long-play affairs. Night Street Nine—a solidly sordid offering—seemed to be in as the drama of the night unless there should be a late hit." – 'SLOW TUESDAY NIGHT', a 2600 word sci-fi short story about lif…

Three-minute dramas?! That sounds like an eternity. Most content on Tik Tok is under a minute.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#498

Post by Bolwin »

yoyohello13 wrote: post #297
AlexCoventry wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. I learned more last year from ChatGPT Pro than I'd learned in the previous 5, FWIW.

Just say 'LLMs'. Whenever someone name drops a specific model I can't help but think it's just an Ad bot.

Pro isn't even a model. If they actually used a model name I'd think they were just into LLMs. Chatgpt pro is a specific paid service.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#499

Post by jacquesm »

PaulHoule wrote: post #490
jacquesm wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm curious though, why is US metallurgy consistently top-notch if the processes are inferior? I really wonder what you're comparing with. Try some quality surgical steel from Sweden, Japan or Germany and you'll come away impressed. China is still not quite there but they are improving rapidly, Korea is already there and poised to improve further. Metal buyers all over the globe are turning away from the US because…

Also those old open hearth furnaces are long gone, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHnJp0oyOxs There are people making top quality steel in the US today by modern methods but it wasn't like the new replaced the old, the old mostly disappeared and we got a little bit of the new.

Yes, I should have been more clear there: they could catch up in volume but it will require a different mindset if they want to become a net exporter of such items.
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