491–500 of 611 posts
So just because we now have "automated programming" agents, every project should eschew the use of a known, tested set of libraries or an entire framework and instead build everything from the ground up? That is insane.
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It's already like that, for a long time. Humans are quite capable of creating complex systems that become unwieldy the bigger they get. No one person can understand all of it. I will offer the AT&T billing system as an example that I'm all too familiar with as a customer, due to the pain it causes me. So many ridiculous problems with that system, it's been around a long time, and it is just so screwball.
Biological systems are vastly more complex, and less brittle, in the sense that killing a single cell doesn't cause system failure like for example removing an object file from a program often would. Just look at the complexity of a single sell, and try to imagine what an analog of similar complexity would be in software.
>Biological systems are vastly more complex, and less brittle, in the sense that killing a single cell doesn't cause system failure like for example removing an object file from a program often would.
Removing a single node from a massively parallel system doesn't kill the system either, it only removes one node, another node will spin up and replace it, just like a failing cell would in a biological system. One liver cell doesn't do anything for the host on its own, it's part of a massively parallel system.
> Just look at the complexity of a single sell, and try to imagine what an analog of similar complexity would be in software.
Removing some "parts" from a cell certainly could kill it, or a million other things that lead to apoptosis, or turn it cancerous. But "parts" isn't analogous to software, DNA is. The same goes for a single node in a system - remove part of the code and you're going to have big problems - for that node. But probably won't kill the other nodes in the system (though a virus could).
There are 3 Billion base pairs in Human DNA. I could imagine that there's more than 3 billion lines of code running important things throughout the world right now. Maybe even in one system, or likely soon there will be. With "AI" doing the coding that number is going to explode, without anyone able to understand all of it. And so I could imagine that "AI" will probably lead to some kind of "digital cancer", the same way there are viruses and other analogues to biological systems.
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I agree with both you and the GP. Yes, coding is being totally revolutionized by AI, and we don't really know where the ceiling will be (though I'm skeptical we'll reach true AGI any time soon), but I believe there still an essential element of understanding how computer systems work that is required to leverage AI in a sustainable way. There is some combination of curiosity of inner workings and precision of thought…
I can see why people are skeptical devs can be 10x as productive. But something I'd bet money on is that devs are 10x more productive at using these tools.
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Now run that loop 1000 times. What does the code /system look like. It is going to be more like evolution (fit to environment) than engineering (fit to purpose). It will be fascinating to watch nonetheless.
It'll probably look like the code version of this, an image run through a LLM 101 times with the directive to create a replica of the input image: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1kbj71z/i_tried_th... Despite being provided with explicit instructions, well... People are still wrongly attributing a mind to something that is essentially mindless.
A significant number of developers and businesses are going to have an absolutely brutal rude awakening in the not too distant future. You can build things this way, and they may work for a time, but you don't know what you don't know (and experience teaches you that you only find most stuff by building/struggling; not sipping a soda while the AI blurts out potentially secure/stable code). The hubris around AI is goi…
Nothing speciail will happen when things are built "this way". People will just be used to lower quality, like they've been used to enshittified software for the past two decades.
No "artisans" will be employed to fix any mess. The mess will be our software baseline going forward.
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I would argue that it's going to be the opposite. At re:Invent, one of the popular sessions was in creating a trio of SRE agents, one of which did nothing but read logs and report errors, one of which did analysis of the errors and triaged and proposed fixes, and one to do the work and submit PRs to your repo. Then, as part of the session, you would artificially introduce a bug into the system, then run into the bug…
Speaking as someone who has been both a SRE/DevOps from all levels from IC to Global Head of a team: - I 100% believe this is happening and is probably going to be the case in the next 6 months. I've seen Claude and Grok debug issues when they only had half of the relevant evidence (e.g. Given A and B, it's most likely X). It can even debug complex issues between systems using logs, metrics etc. In other words, every…
Airline pilots are still employed because of regulations. The industry is heavily regulated and the regulations move very slowly because of its international cooperative nature. The regulations dictate how many crew members should be on board for each plane type and other various variables. All the airlines have to abide by the rules of the airspace they're flying over to keep flying.
The airlines on the other hand along with the technology producers (airbus for example) are pursuing to reduce number of heads in the cockpit. While their recent attempt to get rid of co-pilots in EASA land has failed [1], you can see the amount of pursuit and investment. The industry will continue to force through cost optimization as long as there's no barrier to prevent. The cases where automation has failed will be just a cost of the business, since the life of the deceased is no concern to the company's balance sheet.
Given the lack of regulation in the software, I suspect the industry will continue the cost optimization and eliminate humans in the loop, except in the regulated domains.
[1] - https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/research-projects/emco-sipo-ex... ; while this was not a direct push to get rid of all pilots, it's a stepping stone in that direction.
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I get its necessary for investment, but I'd be a lot happier with these tools if we didn't keep making these wild claims, because I'm certainly not seeing 10x the output. When I ask for examples, 90% its claude code (not a beacon of good software anyway but if nearly everyone is pointing to one example it tells you thats the best you can probably expect) and 10% weekend projects, which are cool, but not 10x cool. Opu…
Have you seen moltbook? One dude coded reddit clone for bots in less the a week. How is it not at least 10x of what was achievable in pre-ai world? Granted he left the db open to public, but some meat powered startups did exactly the same few years ago.
The barrier to creating a full blown Reddit the huge scaling, not the functionality. But with AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, and backends like S3, CF etc, this hasn't been a barrier since a decade or more, either.
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Citation needed. For both the existence of said people (how do you develop said design sense without a ton of coding experience?) and that they are 100x more productive.
If you produced 1 line of code per hour before "AI" because you suck, and now produce 100 lines of code per hour with AI, you are now a 100x programmer. I'm joking of course, but that's probably how some people see it.
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Have you really never found writing code painful? CI is failing. It passed yesterday. Is there a flaky API being called somewhere? Did a recent commit introduce a breaking change? Maybe one of my third-party dependencies shipped a breaking change? I was going to work on new code, but now I have to spend between 5 minutes and an hour+ - impossible to predict - solving this new frustration that just cropped up. I love…
What you’ve described is very much not writing code though. It’s the tedious and unpleasant outcome of having a flaky or under resourced CI setup or pulling in a misbehaving dependency. Neither of those is typing code per se. I don’t think it’s fair to conflate that kind of problem with the creative work involved in implementation itself. “Writing code is boring and tedious” says more about the speaker than it does a…
A significant number of developers and businesses are going to have an absolutely brutal rude awakening in the not too distant future. You can build things this way, and they may work for a time, but you don't know what you don't know (and experience teaches you that you only find most stuff by building/struggling; not sipping a soda while the AI blurts out potentially secure/stable code). The hubris around AI is goi…
I would argue that it's going to be the opposite. At re:Invent, one of the popular sessions was in creating a trio of SRE agents, one of which did nothing but read logs and report errors, one of which did analysis of the errors and triaged and proposed fixes, and one to do the work and submit PRs to your repo. Then, as part of the session, you would artificially introduce a bug into the system, then run into the bug…
If you manage a code base this way at your company, sooner or later you will face a wall. What happens when the AI can't fix an important bug or is unable to add a very important feature? now you are stuck with a big fat dirty pile of code that no human can figure out because it wasn't coded by human and was never designed to be understood by a human in the first place.