De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025) • Hacker News Board

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#491

Post by WarmWash » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:53 PM UTC

dukeyukey wrote: post #369

missedthecue wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest US GDP print is the Q3 2025 Initial Estimate, showing real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-thi...

That is an annualised figure, which means they took the Q3 figure by itself and multiplied it by 4. US annualised growth in Q1 would've been -2%. Between Q1/2/3, US growth has been about 1.6%. Wait until the whole year figures come out.

Holiday spending was up 6.8% YoY and the highest spending on record. About 67% of GDP comes from consumer spending.

It's very unlikely the US doesn't have strong GDP numbers for 2025.

K-shaped economy and all that

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#492

Post by buellerbueller » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:54 PM UTC

One can only hope.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#493

Post by schmidtleonard » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:54 PM UTC

Espressosaurus wrote: post #386

tigerlily wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multipolar? So kind of like Europe before the beginning of World War 1, with major powers all competing with each other?

Yes, though I expect there to be a European block, the US, and a Chinese block. Russia there as a wildcard. I doubt we see Germany in competition with Britain.

The trouble with thinking in terms of blocs is that they don't solve the foundational economic problem: who is the sin-eater who is trusted and willing to run the deficits so that everyone else can run surpluses? Without a clear answer, you just have the same question repeated within and between blocs, so the same beggar-thy-neighbor incentives that exist without blocs exist within and between blocs, so the fighting continues within and between blocs until the question is answered. Blocs don't solve the problem at all.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#494

Post by wvenable » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC

WarmWash wrote: post #136

Trump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages). If you cannot see this, or cannot believe it, you should probably check if you are in a ideological b…

> Is the world going to de-dollarize though?

I think they already are -- it's just not going to happen all at once overnight. The shift has happened already and the consequences will take decades to come forward. But it's still possible that the US will do something to reverse course and everyone will be happy to not have to think about finding an alternative to the US dollar.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#495

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #325

throwaway888666 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am pretty sure the US has not 4.2 percent growth Source? I live in the US and I have lived in countries with 4-5 gdp growth

They are likely referring to Q3/25 numbers [1]. The problem is the AI bubble, without it it is speculated that the US economy might actually be in a recession [2] - effectively, that web of investments, deals, ownerships, purchase contracts and god knows what is nothing more than wash trading that will come crashing down hard. That is why for the 99%, the economy doesn't "feel" like 4.3% of growth. If you're not in A…

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#496

Post by microtonal » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:57 PM UTC

RealityVoid wrote: post #352

nubg wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this getting downvoted?

My money is that influence campaigns are active on HN and try to mold the discourse. The whole internet is manipulated to hell, and HN is a prime target, you have a bunch of smart people that probably have oversized influence, how could you NOT try manipulating this place?

This is most certainly happening. A lot of US-critical articles also get flagged to death, even when they have a lot of upvotes and healthy, civilized discussion.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#497

Post by andy_ppp » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:57 PM UTC

legitster wrote: post #175

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

They are envious of most dictatorships...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#498

Post by RealityVoid » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:58 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #465

RealityVoid wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not saying you're stupid or misinformed, I'm saying you're missing the point. Understanding what Trump wants doesn't require you to understand geopolitics, it requires you know clinical psychiatry.

Trump doesn't want this. He didn't come up with the idea. Trump was told and encouraged to want this by the little birdies at the DoD.

Trump absolutely drives this. You're deluded if you think this whole thing comes from the DOD. He is in effect a king at this point and he rules by posting in social media.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#499

Post by apublicfrog » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:58 PM UTC

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #276

chrisco255 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.

Your ruler is no longer following the rules of law, nor the foundational constitution. USA ended with their declaration of dictatorship and the failure of your houses/legislature/military to act against that and defend the Constitution. I can't see how, since the end of habeas corpus , you can claim legal stability. Your leader is World renowned for reneging on debts and is demanding bribes for companies to operate.…

It's a very grandoise (or alarmist, depending on your perspective), but this isn't super new. The US has been "unstable" with rulers breaking their own laws domestically and internationally for many decades.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#500

Post by zarzavat » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:58 PM UTC

pegasus wrote: post #474

nonethewiser wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I partially agree. But the EU is in a pretty unstable state as incomplete government structure over a collection of peers. "Unstable" does not mean it's going to fall apart. It means it's going to fall apart or coalesce into a single thing (a new country). Or maybe a little of both (a new country with some fringe members leaving). It might not be in 5 or 10 years but it's inevitable. It's not going to operate like th…

I wouldn't describe integrating further to the point of becoming more like the US as "unstable". And that's the most likely outcome, which should make the EU more trustworthy as a partner, not less. EDIT: by "like the US" I mean federalization. This video explains it well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnarX3HPruA

> And that's the most likely outcome

The recent electoral success of AfD in Germany and the National Front in France seem to point in the other direction.