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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#491

Post by justin »

collinmcnulty wrote: post #373
jbstack wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

The “skill” line is what gamblers tell themselves to justify it. A much more useful demarcation is “does this game have any positive impact on the world” (entertainment value of the gambling itself doesn’t count). For example, insurance is not gambling even though it is itself a zero sum game, it enables societally beneficial risk taking. Options trading on real assets like stock aid in price discovery. Memecoins, sp…

Prediction markets serve as a hedge against real world events, which enables risk taking.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#492

Post by tpm »

itintheory wrote: post #425
tpm wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even so…

Your company was taking bets on https://www.online-stopwatch.com/horse-race/ ? Unrelated - that site is great. I looked into membership, but $6/month seems steep.

:) it was indeed pretty similar!

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#494

Post by sebastiennight »

_heimdall wrote: post #486
sebastiennight wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you're not committing the money to purchase an asset that will generate returns, so no, it's not "investing". It would be more accurate to say you're working, really: spending time and effort to earn money. Though the "work" here, assuming you're a skilled poker player sitting with lesser-skilled marks, is similar to a crypto bro performing a rug pull. You're enabling other participants to gamble in the hope of…

In poker the asset I invest in is just very short term - a single hand. I put money in when I expect the asset of that hand to pay off, risking the money a bit like an even shorter term day trade.

I don't think this thread is the best place for the everlasting debate on whether day trading is "investing", but for the purposes of my definition above, day trading, like other kinds of trading like buying commodities for resale, or having a booth at the flea market, would fit my definition of "work" (you purchased something that you expect to generate profit from by putting in your time and effort) rather than investment, since the poker hand is not doing anything by itself to generate value/money/returns for you.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#495

Post by modriano »

butlike wrote: post #437
nkrisc wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those things should really be illegal too, I think, even as someone who enjoys alcohol. The costs to society due to alcohol and the like are massive for essentially no real benefit. Yes, I know what happened during prohibition. That still doesn’t mean alcohol is good for society.

Alcohol is the only painkiller which can be infinitely self-administered. There's value in that. It's quite ancient, been proven to work, which is why it's probably stuck around so long.

What are you talking about? Fatal alcohol poisoning hits long before infinite self-administration. And there actually are many other far safer painkillers than alcohol.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#496

Post by modriano »

entropyneur wrote: post #285
thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

Gambling is frying the brains of a disturbing proportion of genZ and millennial men. It's destroying sports and infecting politics. It's quite detrimental to society.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#497

Post by Rover222 »

terminalshort wrote: post #316
cjs_ac wrote: post #275

> These markets are also manipulable. In 2012, one bettor on the now-defunct prediction market Intrade placed a series of huge wagers on Mitt Romney in the two weeks preceding the election, generating a betting line indicative of a tight race. The bettor did not seem motivated by financial gain, according to two researchers who examined the trades. “More plausibly, this trader could have been attempting to manipulate…

This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.

4 million is absolutely nothing for vested interests trying to steer a US presidential election.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#498

Post by nkrisc »

butlike wrote: post #436
nkrisc wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

Entertainment. It's also the only vice you don't have to ingest an outside substance for.

You could say the same for dog fighting.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#499

Post by collinmcnulty »

justin wrote: post #491
collinmcnulty wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “skill” line is what gamblers tell themselves to justify it. A much more useful demarcation is “does this game have any positive impact on the world” (entertainment value of the gambling itself doesn’t count). For example, insurance is not gambling even though it is itself a zero sum game, it enables societally beneficial risk taking. Options trading on real assets like stock aid in price discovery. Memecoins, sp…

Prediction markets serve as a hedge against real world events, which enables risk taking.

That’s what they say, but that’s not how they actually operate. There’s not nearly the liquidity there (and probably can’t ever be) to actually protect against downside risks. This niche is already better served by boutique insurance.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#500

Post by bluecalm »

toss1 wrote: post #254
bluecalm wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

News already broadcast tons of nonsense. Political commentary is just brain rot. Economic commentary might be just as well generated by one of those Markov chain string generators - it would make as much sense. >>out it will be four orders of magnitude cheaper to manipulate that small market and make the news idiots broadcast that opinions have changed than to actually deploy all the adverts needed to change the opin…

Right, we agree on just about everything. Political and economic commentary is generally brain rot, and Polymarket, etc. is not an accurate predictive tool And yes, if it starts to be seen as one of the levers to manipulate in manipulating public opinion, it will become more expensive. That does not improve it's predictive value, since we never really know how expensive it is on either side relative to the bankrolls…

If you think Polyrmarket is not an accurat predictive tool you can easily exploit and make a fortune. If you think some politician is paying to manipulate the market just take their money by taking the other side.

It's not perfect but it's the best thing we get. Certainly beats analysts, government officials and about anyone else.

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