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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#491
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I genuinely have zero idea what you're looking for if the literal perfect fit isn't it. The simple answer is that they probably had no intention of hiring you, or anybody, in the first place. The amount of fake job listings is absurd.

We really need a regulation on job openings being real. Each interview costs the candidate roughly one PTO day. Mandating something like a minimum of 40:1 interviews to extended offers should correct for at least the worst offenses.

That will never happen. We've got employers making employees sign ridiculous Non-compete, non-disclosure, non-disparagement, agreements. Do you really think this will ever happen? We've collectively decided that corporations are people and people have freedom of speech. We've spent years doing the H1B dance. (I'm not anti-immigration. I'd love to simply give them citizenship. I've met some amazing people on H1Bs. The system is exploitive to US workers AND the H1B recipients). Face it, as someone who is actually doing the work of IT, you lost a long time ago.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If my child was living with me for 18 months post graduation, they would have any job that pays > $0. I don't care if it's McDonalds, but they would be working.

Yup. At 17 I worked temp agencies, factory floors, making bricks, plastic injection molding, data entry, anything that put money in my account. It’s not a career. It’s just a job.

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Construction, trades, and basically physical-world stuff that AI cannot do are still hiring.

I'd posit a potential reason that these fields are currently hiring is a combination of that it destroys your body without recourse and many of these positions require certifications that take a long time to achieve (either through apprenticeships or training programs). You will also generally not get any kind of meaningful benefits from these jobs, and your body will disintigreate before your very eyes as you work y…

> there is no safety net in many cases (401k, pension, reasonable health insurance, etc. outside of union shops

Residential construction is the absolute bottom of the barrel. It is trades equivalent of webdev monkeys flinging javascript poo at the web. You get benefits by not sucking and getting out of residential and into something else.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#494
post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But crying about not having a door to walk through isn’t going to change anything. I graduated 20 years ago and it was different when you graduated just as it is different now. Things change. Economies change. Life changes. The advice I give is simply because that’s the only thing you can change . You and your habits. I’m all for revolution. I’m all for socialism w/ a sprinkle of free market capitalism. I’m all for t…

>But crying about not having a door to walk through isn’t going to change anything. Why is it such a problem for you that people talk about it openly? Why the need to pretend that everyone can have this under control? It seems to me that your advice is just about making you feel better about the situation, about pretending to ourselves that all issues are individual failures, that the world is fair. I do not see peop…

Constructive discussion on what we can do to fix this is welcome but open complaining isn’t going to change anything. It may be cathartic but it’s not productive.

I’m not blaming anyone or saying it’s anyone’s failure. I’m simply saying the only thing you can control is you and so it’s up to you to master your habits and desires so that you can afford a future you want.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is, offshoring in the 2000s was largely private sector driven with minimal subsidizes and investment promotion programs lead by countries and their local governments. On the other hand, in the 2020s, India, Israel, most Eastern European states, Ireland, Costa Rica, and a couple others have launched industrial promotion subsidizes for software offshoring - often providing US$10k-30k per head in federal…

> On the other hand, in the 2020s, India, Israel, most Eastern European states, Ireland, Costa Rica, and a couple others have launched industrial promotion subsidizes for software offshoring - often providing US$10k-30k per head in federal and local subsidizes along with subsidized office space and real estate and tax windows. This isn't true either in India or most of eastern europe. Maybe you are confusing PLI for…

> This isn't true either in India or most of eastern europe.

It is.

Wage arbitrage doesn't move the needle for offshoring once operating costs come to play, and outsourcing companies like EPAM, WITCH, and others juiced their margins by padding heavily, which further reduced the cost competitiveness of outsourcing without subsidies.

Czechia [0], individual Volvodships along with the federal government in Poland [1], state+center in India [2][3], Ireland [4], Romania [5], and others [6] dated list from KPMG which doesn't include state and local incentives) are all providing subsidies for GCCs now which include a payroll/per-head incentive depending on the amount spent in FDI, along with added additional subsidies per industry (eg. Life sciences GCCs get additional sets of subsidies versus a generic software GCC versus a VFX GCC).

The US has some of the weakest R&D tax incentives globally [6], with no payroll or financing incentives - only Vietnam, Philippines, Peru, and PNG are stingier, which has been a major role for why GCC expansion has been rapidly growing for the past few years.

That said, these incentives are primarily targeted at large employers becuase if you cannot provide at the minimum dozens of jobs, then the cost cannot be recouped over the long term by most subsidies. So mom-and-pop 3 person consultancies are ignored because in most cases they are parasites and large firms interested in opening large dedicated headcount offices are incentivized.

[0] - https://czechinvest.gov.cz/en/For-Investors/Investment-Incen...

[1] - https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/pl/pdf/services/for...

[2] - https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=93f90e07-581d...

[3] - https://inductusgcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/INDIAS-GC...

[4] - https://www.idaireland.fr/getmedia/4f70d494-8ec1-4e3d-b5a5-1...

[5] - https://kpmg.com/kpmg-us/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2021/global-rd...

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, once you hit 50 the wall is real. You need to maximise your earnings during your 30s and 40s to be able to just do contracting, etc. then.

Take care of yourself: exercise, skin care, fashion trends, botox, hair dye, etc. so you do not look 50+ and no one will know the difference.

If botox is required to secure an engineering job when you have a long proven track record of solving hard technical problems successfully- the company is a fraud and the jobs are fake.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#497
post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone posted this already but a more useful "net worth" is how big of a shock can take without paying multiples on the sticker price. And even homes are now sieving into institutional buyers. https://medium.com/newco/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6d...

Net worth is a funny metric. Joe has a 300k house with 100k equity and 200k mortgage. He has 100k in stocks in a 401k. Net worth negative 100k. Pete has $300 in his cheques account, and isn't eligible for loans or mortgage. Net worth positive $300 Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

This feels like one of those PEMDAS posts on facebook where everyone comes to different results and argues endlessly about it. So let me add my 2¢:

if you have 100K in equity and owe 200K on your mortgage, then you’re net -100K on your house

that combines with the 100K in the retirement account to produce a net worth of $0

Where is my mistake?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#498

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

My brother who is nearly 50 and has worked in tech since the dot com boom, got laid off in January and couldn't find a job until last week. This job, too, was just a contractual position at his old Fortune 50 firm. He has an engineering degree from one of the top 5 engineering colleges in India, a Master's from one of the top 5 engineering schools in the US. He built some of the systems that form the foundation of th…

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#499
post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take care of yourself: exercise, skin care, fashion trends, botox, hair dye, etc. so you do not look 50+ and no one will know the difference.

If botox is required to secure an engineering job when you have a long proven track record of solving hard technical problems successfully- the company is a fraud and the jobs are fake.

“Companies” don’t hire people, a few human individuals acting autonomously, with their own beliefs and biases, are ultimately responsible for bringing someone new onboard.

Once you hit 40s just get the botox anyway. Looks better. Only lasts 3 months or so. Good for a few rounds of interviews.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#500
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I said, I agree with taking personal responsibility - I'm not sure why you're still trying to fight me on that. > You have two options. Continue to point fingers and complain and be broke, or start putting $100/mo in VOO and save what little money you have for your future? The imaginary person you're trying to give this advice to graduated from university eighteen months ago and has been living in their parents' h…

If my child was living with me for 18 months post graduation, they would have any job that pays > $0. I don't care if it's McDonalds, but they would be working.

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