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Harnessing America's heat pump moment

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Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#491

Post by neltnerb »

CalRobert wrote: post #296
edg5000 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are efficient but do not have as high of an energy output as a smaller and cheaper gas furnaice. Apart from that, the water temperature is lower, so you need much larger radiators. Due to the lower energy output, you also need better insulation or a relatively massive heat pump. And the tech was not around 20 years ago (for reasons unknown to me).

Is there a reason to use radiators and not just go straight to air to air pumps, which also have aircon?

From context I can't tell if they mean the heated coils in a heat pump head, or somehow connecting to a traditional radiator.

In older homes there isn't necessarily HVAC at all and instead there are actual radiators. I've lived in two like that, there is just no forced air to rooms.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#492

Post by aradox66 »

relaxing wrote: post #229
EngCanMan wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Umm, I encourage you to do that math a little closer. A contractor would have to; Come to your house to quote, and only land 1/4 quotes maybe. Schedule the workers Order the equipment. Get an electrical permit. Pay for the truck and all the tools. Insurance for the company and trucks. Advertising costs Warranty and callbacks I can assure you that this is not the get rich quick scheme you may think it is.

Look up private equity buying up HVAC firms. It is in fact a get rich scheme.

I thought private equity was all about liquidating nearly bankrupt businesses

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#493

Post by Spivak »

Marsymars wrote: post #412
ssuds wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The price has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years Not really, natural gas has immense exposure to geopolitics and the commodity markets: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/what-drives-natural-gas-pri... There’s also the argument to be made (this has manifested in other countries) that as gas usage wanes and more homes electrify, nat gas costs will increase as the infrastructure costs are spread among few…

> There’s also the argument to be made (this has manifested in other countries) that as gas usage wanes and more homes electrify, nat gas costs will increase as the infrastructure costs are spread among fewer and fewer people This has kinda wonky incentives though - if your fixed costs for gas are high but your marginal costs remain low and for whatever logistical reasons you can't cut the gas connection entirely, th…

I'm currently facing this dilemma when it comes to my new water heater purchase. The $/kJ actually delivered into the water difference is so significant despite gas being less efficient that I'm probably going to switch to gas. Electricity has gotten so expensive that even with an efficiency advantage it still loses on the order of $500-800 per year.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#494

Post by carlosjobim »

orwin wrote: post #397
steveBK123 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In US the labor & markup is a huge component. I got HVAC drop-in replacement quotes ranging from $7k to $14k for what upon some quick research was about $3k in hardware.

Can you do the installation yourself? In my country i have to make a HVAC technician come to check the installation and sign a paper before i can start mine (200€ for a 15 minutes job, but it's less than the 2-4k it would cost to not do it myself) [edit] i say that because my hardware is 2.5k euros, so ~3k¯dollars, so we probably have the same high end stuff, and i guarantee you it's not hard to install, and it can b…

Or else?

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#495

Post by harmmonica »

JeremyPOsborne wrote: post #475
danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

Some are trying to cut HVAC install costs in half, and a lot of people are already working on it including Jetson (where the author works) and disclaimer my company Electric Air. Average install is about $20K in California (varies by state). Here’s how that usually breaks down: - Equipment: $3–5K for a basic swap (some go up to $10K for single system) - Direct labor: $3–4K (about 15–20%) - Materials: $2–3K - Permits…

I'm not sure if you're going to get downvoted here for the advertisement (not by me because I find it useful and interesting), but can you be specific about what "streamline direct labor" means? Also, with the virtual site visit, are you guaranteeing the customer that the estimate you give virtually will be the ultimate price?

Any chance you can you take on solar next because if we could get a solar system for half the price we'd sign right up. All we hear about is how cheap solar is now, but the labor costs have risen more than any hardware price decreases.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#496

Post by Marsymars »

Spivak wrote: post #493
Marsymars wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There’s also the argument to be made (this has manifested in other countries) that as gas usage wanes and more homes electrify, nat gas costs will increase as the infrastructure costs are spread among fewer and fewer people This has kinda wonky incentives though - if your fixed costs for gas are high but your marginal costs remain low and for whatever logistical reasons you can't cut the gas connection entirely, th…

I'm currently facing this dilemma when it comes to my new water heater purchase. The $/kJ actually delivered into the water difference is so significant despite gas being less efficient that I'm probably going to switch to gas. Electricity has gotten so expensive that even with an efficiency advantage it still loses on the order of $500-800 per year.

Is gas actually less efficient? I haven't had to work out the math myself yet, but there are some very salient variables - e.g. what's the energy source of the electricity? If it's a natural gas power plant, you're looking at like 30-60% efficiency of gas->electricity in the first place. Are you looking a at a heat pump heater? If so, how much of its energy would be pulling heat from the house that needs to be replaced by the home's heating supply anyway?

This is the kind of thing where a carbon tax is great for sorting out the pricing to match the externalities.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#497

Post by vladgur »

darth_avocado wrote: post #57
galoisscobi wrote: post #3

> we’re waiting on people Right on. I have a heat pump water heater and a heat pump heating system in my HVAC. Getting those installed felt like swimming upstream. Most contractors would try to dissuade me from them. Luckily, I found a contractor who was skilled and knowledgeable about heat pumps and rebates (back when govt thought climate change was real). Very happy with my heat pump tech.

I’m in California, I have two heat pumps installed. I can sum up the problems as follows: 1. They are EXPENSIVE. The equipment itself isn’t that expensive tbh but installation is pretty expensive. The government subsidies have made sure that the contractors jack up their own prices by as much. 2. I end up paying more in utilities because electricity is very expensive and heat pumps aren’t nearly as good at heating in…

That is precisely why im not planning to install a heatpump until i have rooftop solar.

Here in Bay Area my gas furnace is generally off late March through late october and while gas costs have gone up over the years, electricity easily goes up 10% year over year. We are currently in $0.43 per kwh territory OFF-PEAK. This is nearly 3 times the average rate in the United States.

I wont be investing $$$ in heatpumps until i spend $$$$ on solar panels and that wont happen till i replace my roof in a few years.

PS. this is why buying a hybrid a few years ago instead of buying an electric was a good call. Our gas prices stayed pretty much the same, while our electricity is up 30% since that time.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#498

Post by JeremyPOsborne »

Execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute. It's working, keep going. Don't stop.

Make them easy to buy and install leading to lower costs, and more getting into homes.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#499

Post by ssl-3 »

whateveracct wrote: post #403
throw0101c wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> Mine struggles if it gets below 30, and might as well not exist below 10. They're not great at low temps. >> > What percentage of the (US) population gets temperatures like that? That's generally mostly IECC Zone 7 (though cold snaps in Zone 6) can happen: > A lot? e.g. Chicago gets it every year [citation needed] Per historical weather data: https://ashrae-meteo.info/v2.0/index.php?lat=41.960&lng=-87.... It is w…

I think the comment was saying below 30F and below 10F. Much warmer than you're saying. Also.. > It is warmer than -16C/3F at Chicago (O'Hare) for 99% of the time (i.e., except for 4 days a year), and warmer than -18.7C/-2F for 99.6% of the time (2 days). If my heat doesn't work for those days, I'm kind of boned. Four days per year without a working heat pump? That's a mess.

At face value, then in the worst case that's just 4 days per year of using resistive heat to keep a home warm.

Which is, of course, very expensive to use -- but it's only expensive for those 4 days. Resistive heat can be avoided for the other 361.2425 days in a year.

In the US (as of August of 2025), the average price of residential electricity per delivered kWh is $0.1762 [1].

If using resistive heat averages 4kW during each of those 4 days (it's probably either more than that, or less than that, but ballparks are ballparks), then that's about $16.92 for each of those days. Or: $67.66, per year.

Not so bad, right? Or at least, not "boned."

[1]: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#500

Post by JeremyPOsborne »

harmmonica wrote: post #495
JeremyPOsborne wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some are trying to cut HVAC install costs in half, and a lot of people are already working on it including Jetson (where the author works) and disclaimer my company Electric Air. Average install is about $20K in California (varies by state). Here’s how that usually breaks down: - Equipment: $3–5K for a basic swap (some go up to $10K for single system) - Direct labor: $3–4K (about 15–20%) - Materials: $2–3K - Permits…

I'm not sure if you're going to get downvoted here for the advertisement (not by me because I find it useful and interesting), but can you be specific about what "streamline direct labor" means? Also, with the virtual site visit, are you guaranteeing the customer that the estimate you give virtually will be the ultimate price? Any chance you can you take on solar next because if we could get a solar system for half t…

Yeah, really trying not to advertise. But add disclaimer. Thanks for letting me know it's a bit much. I tried to tone it down. Let me know if it's better or i should delete.

streamline labor: Aligning pay incentives with installers, ensure right parts and materials, make sure customer are not indecisive on the first day, mimic the 15% of installs that are side jobs as much as possible.

Virtual site visits aren't 100%. But allows us to get a price quickly, and check electrical capability. It's a bit of a test for customers, if they are interested in snapping 5 or so photos, they probably won't buy from us.

Half the time, we then go out for a site visit in-person but we're only visiting 50% of the customers. It's less expensive, however our conversion rates go down because we're not winning the customer with our personality, etc.

If we can verify directly from photos and go straight to contract, we send out a install manager to confirm after the signature. Basically, if some giant obstacle that will stops the install, we can cancel at no cost to the customer and we do that all very quickly so they can select another bid if that happens.

Solar is tough, I am a renewable energy engineer from Australia and yes, we can half the cost of solar as seen in Australia. I think Australian are simply less fussy and legally charged than governments and home owners in US and simple installs.

I now believe large central PV will likely be more successful here. 40% of electricity is often coming from solar and wind in CA and we can just keep doing that and we'll be fine.

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