Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

491–500 of 668 posts

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#491

Post by JCM9 »

justin66 wrote: post #447
JCM9 wrote: post #437

All the smartest people I know in finance are preparing for AI to be a huge bust that wipes out startups. To them, everyone in tech is just a pawn in their money moving finance games. They view Silicon Valley at the moment salivating on what there plays are to make money off the coming hype cycle implosion. The best finance folks make the most money when the tide goes out… and they’re making moves now to be ready. Ta…

Just startups? Really?

Broader impact, but while the big players will take a hit the new wave of startups stands to take the brunt of the impact. VCs and startups will suffer the most.

At the end of the day though it’s how the system is designed. It’s the needed forrest fire that wipes out overgrowth and destroys all but the strongest trees.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#492

Post by pyrale »

sokoloff wrote: post #454
pyrale wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look at industrial revolution I really don't see how one can separate the industrial revolution from colonialism, considering we have chiefs of government in colonial countries on the record saying that colonies are a necessary outlet for industrial goods [1]. Once you've established that link, it's hard to explain that "everyone" benefitted from the industrial revolution. Even disregarding that, the working condit…

What percent of the population in places which experienced the industrial revolution would be better off if they time-travelled back 200 years? 1%? 0.2%?

> in places which experienced the industrial revolution

People experienced the industrial revolution everywhere.

I suspect, when you think "places which experienced the industrial revolution", you think about a small subset of areas where some development happened as a result of that, likely the areas where industrialists lived.

But you would also have to consider other places' experience of industrialization. For instance, Congo under EIC colonial rule did experience industrialization - it was the place where industrial amounts of rubber were harvested to allow for plants elsewhere to produce joints, pipes, motor belts, etc. It's not really hard to believe that, had Congo not experienced that, its citizen would almost certainly have been better off now.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#493

Post by lazystar »

jobigoud wrote: post #412
somewhereoutth wrote: post #43

My understanding is that the cost of training each next model is very very large, and a half trained model is worthless. Thus when it is realised that this investment cannot produce the necessary returns, there will simply be no next model. People will continue using the old models, but they will become more and more out of date, and less and less useful, until they are not much more than historical artifacts. My poi…

Why do you think the models will become out of date and less useful? Like, compared to what? What external factor makes the models less useful? If it's just to catch up with newly discovered knowledge or information then that's not the model, they can just train again with an updated dataset and probably not need to train from scratch.

> What external factor makes the models less useful?

Life. A great example can be seen in the AI-generated baseball-related news articles that involve the Athletics organization. AI articles this year have been generating articles that incorrectly state that the Atlanta Braves played in games that were actually played by the Athletics, and the reason is due to the outdated training model. For the last 60 years before 2025, the Athletics played in Oakland, and during that time their acronym was OAK. In 2025, they left Oakland for Sacramento, and changed their acronym to ATH. The problem is that AI models are trained on 60 years of data where 1. team acronyms are always based on the city, rather than the mascot of the team, and 2. acronyms OAK = Athletics, ATL = Atlanta Braves, and ATH = nothing. As a result, an AI model that doesnt have context "OAK == ATH in the 2025 season" will see ATH in the input data, associates ATH with nothing in it's model, and will then erroneously assume ATH is a typo for ATL.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#494

Post by cyanydeez »

akagusu wrote: post #97

The big question is what "society" he is talking about? Is it the "society" that includes all people, or the "society" that includes only rich people?

Business. People in the human centipede who wont fight fascism

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#495

Post by thfuran »

squidbeak wrote: post #488
sokoloff wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't. If you do, maybe you could hypothesize a practically possible path from now to then and enlighten us Luddites? The overwhelmingly most likely "end of money for humans" comes from the extinction of humans.

Believe me, ruling them out is the last thing I'd do. I fully expect them in the next decade or two. A practically possible path to both: Starship is perfected and mining companies begin operations in space. Vast data centers training spatial ai using virtual simulations perfect it well enough for general robotics to become practicable. Automation is then as follows: robotics manufacturing and maintenance is handled…

The cost is in transportation (aside from the cost of developing and producing all those automated systems). Where do you expect extra-terrestrial mining to occur and why do you think what's mined there would be used on Earth? The nearest place to mine would be the moon, and it's on the order of 1 million dollars per kg to bring things back. We could potentially drop that, but that's a hell of a base cost just for material transport. What makes you think that's going to be happening soon?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#497

Post by palmotea »

watwut wrote: post #463
kakacik wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People do this to themselves and willingly, no spooky evil capitalists behind the curtains are necessary. People love money and what they can bring on the table, people often hate each other ie within families stiffed by peer pressure and expectations of mentalities formed in another very different era, people love discovering new countries and cultures. And so on and on. Ie me - I love my parents, my childhood was n…

But kids in those strict societies stay with parents more, help them and treat them better. Meanwhile, you dont care about them except for them being potential resource of free work. And I mean, you idea of local comunity is all about other people doing free work for you and then tolerating your peculiarities with no reciprocation. So, I dont think that is much of an argument here.

> And I mean, you idea of local comunity is all about other people doing free work for you and then tolerating your peculiarities with no reciprocation.

When it seems to you like everyone around you is the problem, you may actually be the problem.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#499

Post by squidbeak »

thfuran wrote: post #495
squidbeak wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe me, ruling them out is the last thing I'd do. I fully expect them in the next decade or two. A practically possible path to both: Starship is perfected and mining companies begin operations in space. Vast data centers training spatial ai using virtual simulations perfect it well enough for general robotics to become practicable. Automation is then as follows: robotics manufacturing and maintenance is handled…

The cost is in transportation (aside from the cost of developing and producing all those automated systems). Where do you expect extra-terrestrial mining to occur and why do you think what's mined there would be used on Earth? The nearest place to mine would be the moon, and it's on the order of 1 million dollars per kg to bring things back. We could potentially drop that, but that's a hell of a base cost just for ma…

In the next couple of decades? Starship is real, space mining companies are real, NVIDIA Cosmos is real, robotics development is nascent, but real and thrilling. Ordinary market forces will ensure the uptake of robotics.

You're calculating the expense of returning mined resources using past metrics that are superseded altogether in this scenario. For instance miniaturization suddenly won't be necessary for mining companies wishing to send gear to asteroids.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#500

Post by TrackerFF »

dmix wrote: post #163
RoyTyrell wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those companies are also likely still in the red. They're banking on the hope that one day they will be profitable. I'm sure one of them will be.

HN said the same thing about Uber forever.

For almost 20 year, Amazon has been the poster child of "A company can be unprofitable for years and still turn out a winner", but of course - not all companies can pivot from being a regular e-commerce company to cloud infrastructure/hosting, and become a money machine.

So the question, at least to me, is how these AI companies will find a product or service that makes them profitable. Other than becoming actual monopolies in their current domains.

Post reply on HN